Kentucky Derby 

Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Weather watch:  Chance of showers.  Not hot.     

Last year’s pick:.

 “Cyberknife”, who finished 18th.  Prior to this race, “Cyberknife” had won the Arkansas Derby in not-so-fast fashion. Last year’s Derby winner?  “Rich Strike” at 80-1.     

This year

   In prior years, this blogger would handicap all races on the card.  This year?  The bankroll will be largely devoted to the winner if the 2023 Arkansas Derby - - - #14 “Angel of Empire” (8-1) - - along with others in exacta wagers. 

  As shown in the wagering below, the likely favorite #15 “Forte” (3-1) will not appear on any ticket.  This wallet cannot support an offspring of “Violence” to run the 10 furlong distance.   His dam “Queen Caroline” was a successful miler as shown by her $400K earnings, mostly on the Maryland circuit.  In summary, if “Forte” wins, I lose.

  Trainer Todd Pletcher’s other two entrants, i.e. #5 “Tapit Trice” (5-1) and #6 “Kingsbarns” (12-1), have better breeding than “Forte”.  In the Louisiana Derby, “Kingsbarns” went to the front and never looked back.  In the Bluegrass Stakes, “Tapit Trice” stayed within range of the leader, then pounced in the late stages.  While nothing in horse racing is certain, no one would be surprised if these two run similar races today.  

  The X Factor today is the Japanese entrant #17 “Derma Sotogake” (10-1).  While he has raced eight times, his last race was in Dubai seven weeks ago.  This son of the hard-knocking “Mind Your Biscuits” could be anything.   

  Finally, the lightly-raced #8 “Mage” is out of the dam “Puca”.  She banked $300K for trainer Bill Mott.  More importantly, the sire of “Mage” is out of the sire “Good Magic”, himself a son of “Curlin’.  Even though this colt has only had three lifetime starts, he could be anything too.   

 

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:57 P.M.  The Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve.  A 10 furlong, Grade I dirt race restricted to 3 year-olds.  Purse = $3 Million.

The move by #14 “Angel of Empire” (8-1) in the Arkansas Derby is most memorable.  The knocks against this colt are his modest breeding (Classic Empire by Armony’s Angel), which was reflected in his sales-ring price ($70,000 @ Sept. ’21 Keeneland yearling sale). 

  As for breeding, on his “plus side”, his maternal grand dam “Seeinsbelievein” dropped “Conquest Big E”, a winner of $435K in 34 starts.  That broodmare is out of “Carson City”, which is a big plus to this blogger. 

  Secondly, #8 “Mage” (15-1) is just too well bred to expect a poor performance.  Yes, this entrant is very lightly raced and only has one maiden win.  The “morning line” odds  on “Mage” at 15-1 is much too low.  His post-time odds should be north of 22-1.  

  The wager will include an exacta “key”, with #14 finishing either first or second to the following:

    -   #5 “Tapit Trice” (5-1) 

• #6 “Kingsbarns” (12-1), 
• #8 “Mage” (15-1) 
• #17 “Derma Sotogake” (10-1)    

The wagers:  

$15 W/P/S #14 “Angel of Empire”

$2  W/P/S #8 “Mage”.   

$1 Exacta #14 beating either #5, #6, #8, or #17. 

 $1 Exacta:  Either #5, #6, #8, or #17 beating #14.   

Total = $59  

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