Breeders’ Cup 2021
Del Mar
This post includes both days. Total wagers equal $205. Of that amount, $50 is devoted to “Knicks Go” in The Classic, and $50 to “Love” in the Filly and Mare Turf. The remaining $105 can be described as “playing around the edges”.
Good luck to all.
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Friday, November 5th
Friday Del Mar Race No. 1. Post time 2:55 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. Purse $100K. A dirt sprint under allowance conditions.
Trainer Bob Baffert has two legitimate contenders entered, but this wallet prefers #11 “Sumo” (5-1) with Johnny V. Notice the $700K price tag. The wager: #2 win #11, then $0.50 Pick 5: 11 w 5 w 9 w 8 w 5/11. Total = $3.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 2. Post time 3:25 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Qatar Golden Mile Stakes. Purse = $150K. An 8 furlong, ungraded turf stake restricted to two year-olds.
The dam of #5 “Detroit City” (6-1) banked over $400K on the track, and this puts him into the mix. Let’s face it. He has been running with better than the majority of today’s opponents. The wager: $2 Win #5, then $0.50 Pick 4: 5 w 9 w 8 w 5/11. Total = $3.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 3. Post time 3:55 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes. A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California state-bred two year old fillies. Purse = $175K.
The dam of #9 “Vivacious Vanessa” (4-1) also dropped $500K winner. Yes, this filly has not run on the Delmar dirt, but that breeding is hard to just toss away. The wager: $2 Win #9, then $1 Pick 3: 9 w 8 w 5/11. Total = $4.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 4. Post time 4:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Senator Ken Maddy Stakes. A turf sprint for fillies and mares. Purse = $200K.
Not many high quality sprinters made the trip to Delmar for this race, so it is hard to pick against trainer Richard Mandella’s #8 “Superstition” (3-1). I don’t trust her at all, so this is merely a “play through” race. The wager: $2 Double 8 w 5. Total = $2.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 5. Post time 5:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Golden State Juvenile Stakes. A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California site-bred two year olds. Purse = $175K.
Let’s see if Jeff Mullins’ #5 “Fast Draw Munnings” (8-1) has anything left in the lane to hold off Reddam Racing’s #11 “Slow Down Andy” (5-1), who will be closer to 5-2 when they spring the latch. The dam of “Fast Draw.. “ banked over $200K racing against her fellow state-breds. The wager: $2 Win and Place #5, then $2 Double 5 w 6, then $1 Pick 6: 5 w 6/8 w 6 w 6 w 12 w 2. Total = $8.
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Friday Del Mar Race No. 6. Post time: 5:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf Sprint. A 5 1/2 furlong turf race for two year olds. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Golden Pal”, owned by Ranlo Investments and trained by Wesley Ward. This colt won as the wagering choice at odds of 4-5. This was Wesley Ward’s second straight win in this race. He won it in 2019 also.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Momos” who finished 7th at 25-1.
Yes, trainer Wesley Ward has won this race in 2019 and 2020. So, all eyes will be on his unbeaten filly #8 “Averly Jane” (5-2). Yep, all eyes except mine - - who will be focused on his other filly #6 “Twilight Gleaming” (4-1). Frequent readers of this blog know that horses who ran at Deauville get extra attention, but horses that win at Deauville get selected and bet. This filly’s win on soft turf at Deauville does not warrant demerits. The wager: $3 Place #6, then $3 Double #6 w #6. Total = $6.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 7. Post time 6:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Filly. An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Vequist”, owned by Gary Barber, et al, trained by Robert Reid. She won as the second choice at odds of 6.60 to 1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: No pick and no wager due to a short field.
Ricardo Santana Jr.’s #6 “Echo Zulu” (4-5) is . . . oops! After riding this filly in all three of her races, the connections decided to replace Ricardo with a different jockey. So, let’s start again. Joel rides this undefeated favorite. Enough said where there is a very short field. The wager: $1 Pick 4: 6 w 6 w 1/12 w 2. Total = $2.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 8. Post time: 7:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Fillies Turf. An 8 furlong turf race for two year old fillies. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Aunt Pearl”, the 5-2 favorite, owned by Michael Dubb, et al, trained by Brad Cox.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Miss Amulet” who finished 3rd at 12-1 odds.
This race is wide open. No filly deserves to be less than 4-1 in this field. The pick could nearly any entrant, and it was a close call between Brad Cox’s #5 “Bubble Rock” (8-1) and Johnny V’s #6 “Hello You” (10-1). The former has shown tremendous speed and should be used in the exotics, but the latter’s September 24th race at Newmarket was very special. The wager: $3 Win and Place #6 then $2 Double #6 with #12. Total = $8.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 9. The Juvenile. An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year olds. Purse: $2 Million. Post time: 7:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.
Last year’s winner: “Essential Quality”, owned by Godolphin and trained by Brad Cox. He won at 3.70 to 1 odds as the second choice.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Likeable” who finished 22 lengths behind the winner at 25-1 odds.
On October 1st at Santa Anita, #12 “Corniche” (5-2) beat #4 “Pappacap” (15-1), and I see no reason why this will not happen again today. The wager: $2 Win and Place #12, then $2 Double #12 with #2, then a $2 “special double” - - #12 “Corniche” in this race with #5 “Knicks Go” in tomorrow’s Classic. Total = $8.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 10. Post time: 8:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf. An 8 furlong turf race for two year olds. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Fire at Will” at 30-1 odds, owned by Three Diamonds Farm, trained by Michael Maker.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Outadore” who finished 3rd at 10-1.
Both of the Godolphin horses will take money, and #1 “Modern Games” (6-1) had an outstanding race at Newmarket on September 23rd. However, he has been running with cheaper. My guess is that he is here to keep stablemate #2 “Albahr” (5-1) company. Also, having Lanfranco Dettori in the irons is always a plus. The wager: $2 Win and Place #2, then $2 “special double” of this race with “The Turf” on Saturday - - - so #2 “Albahr” with #3 “Domestic Spending”. Total = $6.
Total for Friday, November 5th = $50.
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Breeders’ Cup 2021
Del Mar
Saturday, November 6th
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 1. Post time 1:15 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. An 8 1/2 furlong turf race run under allowance conditions. Purse = $100K.
The pick is #1 “One Fast Bro” (3-1) who has found ways to lose. Today he meets a field he can handle. The wager: $2 Double #1 with #2, then $1 Pick 5: 1 w 2 w 2 w 5 w 6. Total = $3.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 2. Post time 1:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. A Grade II, 13 furlong race. Purse: $250K.
When #2 “Lone Rock” (6-5) sets up shop, he lasts and lasts. The wager: $2 Double #2 with #2, then $1 Pick 4: 2 w 2 w 5 w 6. Total = $3.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 3. Post time 2:25 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Goldikova Stakes. A Grade II, 8 furlong turf stake for fillies and mares. Purse: $300K.
Susan and John Moore’s #2 “Princess Grace” (8-5) is a proven, two turn miler. The others have questions to answer while she has none. Those odds of 8-5 would be generous. The wager: $2 Win #2, then $1 Pick 3: 2 w 5 w 6. Total = $3.
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Saturday Del Mar Race No. 4. Post time: 3:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Sprint. A Grade 1, seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Gamine”, the even-money favorite, owned by Michael Lund Peterson and trained by Bob Baffert. She paid $4.20 to win and set the track record for 7 furlongs at Keeneland.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Bells the One” who finished a distant 3rd to the runaway winner.
For this 2021 edition, should we expect something different from last year’s outcome? Really? The pick is #5 “Gamine” (3-5). The wager: $1 Pick 4: 5 w 6 w 1/5 w 6. Total = $2, and turn the page.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 5. Post time: 3:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf Sprint. A Grade 1, 5 furlong turf race. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Glass Slippers”, a four year-old filly who last raced at Longchamps in France, owned by Bearstone Stud Limited, trained by Kevin Ryan, at odds of 10 to 1. Last year’s distance was 5 1/2 furlongs.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Imprimis” who finished 13th at 5-1.
This year, trainer Kevin Ryan adds #2 “Emaraaty Ana” (5-1). The differences between his #1 “Glass Slippers” and “Emaratty Ana” are huge - - different owners, different sex, raced in different countries, and one has been beaten twice in the past twelve months by this blogger’s pick, i.e. #6 “A Case of You” (8-1) who stunned the crowd at Longchamps in early October. Today this colt sheds 13 pounds. He will be coming late. The wager: $3 Place #6, then $2 Double 6 w 1. Total = $5.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 6. Post time: 4:19 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Dirt Mile. A Grade 1, 8 furlong dirt race. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Knicks Go”, owned by Korea Racing Authority and trained by Brad Cox as the 1.80 to 1 favorite. “Knicks Go” set the track record for the mile distance at Keeneland.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Sharp Samurai”.
This 2021 edition of the Dirt Mile shapes up to be a two horse race, between Ricardo’s #1 “Silver State” (7-2) and Irad’s #5 “Life is Good” (4-5). The track configuration means this is a two-turn race, and that is something new for the likely favorite. Yes, #5 “Life is Good” is a ‘must use’ in horizontal wagers, but for this race, #1 “Silver State” drew the rail and has two-turn experience. The wager: $3 Win #1, then $1 Pick 3: 1/5 w 6 w 8. Total = $5.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 7. Post time: 4:59 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Turf. A Grade 1, 11 furlong grass race for fillies and mares. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Audarya” at 9 1/2 furlongs. She is owned by A.M. Swinburn, trained by J. Fanshawe and ridden by Pierre-Charles Boudot. She won at odds of 18 to 1 and she set the course record for 9 1/2 furlongs on the turf at Keeneland.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Audarya”.
This 2021 edition of this race turned up extremely competitive, and is headed by trainer Bill Mott’s #7 “War Like Goddess” (7-2). She has four straight wins. Next, #8 “Loves You Only” (4-1) has banked over $5 million on the track. Next, #12 “Audarya” (5-1) won this race last year. Next, the three year-old #4 “Rougir” (6-1) won the Prix de la Opera at Longchamps at odds of 2-1 over 12 other fillies. Finally, #6 “Love” (4-1) won the Prince of Wales at Ascot in June, then has lost her last three races. However, notice that she lost her most recent race by a nose to a filly that carried 9 less pounds than she did. Earlier in the summer, she finished behind a Group 1 winning colt named “Mishriff” while carrying only 3 pounds less. Today she will not carry 137 pounds. She will carry only 124 pounds. Yes, the competition is huge in today’s race, but the weight shift, the nearly 2 months gap, and the fact that she has ‘looked good’ in her gallop at DelMar, are all signs of a competitive, if not winning, effort today. The wager: $20 win and $30 Place #6, then $1 Pick 6: 6 w 2/8 w 3 w 6 w 3/13 w 5. Total = $54.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 8. Post time: 5:38 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Sprint. A Grade 1, 6 furlong dirt race. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Whitmore”, owned by Robert LaPenta, et al., trained by Ron Moquett at odds of 18-1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Vekoma” who was scratched.
Sprinters are a “different kettle of fish” from milers or routers, especially later in the calendar year. So, this blogger prefers sprinters that have a 6-8 week gap from their most recent race. Meeting that criteria today are #2 “Jackie’s Warrior” (6-5) and #7 “Lexitonian” (20-1). As for 3 year-old “Jackie”, he meets older horses today for the first time. “Lexitonian”? He was superb at his first Saratoga race, then stumbled at the start of The Forego and lost all chance.
So, having said all of that, the pick is Irad’s #8 “Special Reserve” (6-1) who has won eight career races, with six of those eight being at today’s distance. This blogger just cannot pick a 3 year-old to win against older, proven sprinters. The wagers: $1 Pick 5: 8 w 3 w 6 w 3/13 w 5, then $2 Double 8 w 3, and finally $3 Place #8. Total = $7.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 9. Post time: 6:20 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Mile. A Grade 1, 8 furlong turf race. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Order of Australia”, a 3 year-old Irish bred. He won at odds of 73-1. He was trained by Aidan O’Brien and ridden by Pierre-Charles Boudot.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: ‘Halladay” who took the early lead but tired to finish 6th.
For the 2021 edition, there will be no 73-1 shot winning this race. Instead, the probable favorite #3 “Space Blues” (3-1) draws near the hedge and will be formidable. Forget the rest. The wagers: $2 Double 3 w 6, then $1 Pick 4: 3 w 6 w 3/13 w 5, and finally $5 Win and Place #3. Total = $14.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 10. Post time: 7:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Distaff. A Grade 1, 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Monomy Girl”, the even-money favorite. She is owned by Michael Dubb, et al., trained by Brad Cox, and ridden by Florent Geroux.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Monomy Girl”.
In this 2021 Distaff, it is hard to ignore the running style of #6 “Letruska” (8-5). She goes to the lead and never lets another filly go past her. She may have just one more race in her today, but do not “bet the ranch”. The wager: $2 Double #6 with #3, then $1 Pick 3: 6 w 3/13 w 5. Total = $4.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 11. Post time: 7:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf. A 12 furlong grass race. Purse: $4 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Tarnawa”, a four year-old filly who last raced at Longchamps. She was owned by HH Aga Khan, trained by Dermot Weld, and ridden by Colin Keane. She won at odds of 4.70 to 1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Tarnawa”.
The champ #13 “Tarnawa” (9-5) has only raced three times since winning this race last year at Keeneland. However, she has banked nearly $1.6 Million in those 3 races. Wow! Still, as formidable as she seems, this is a much tougher group than last year’s bunch. This wallet will open slightly for #3 “Domestic Spending” (4-1), partly because jockey Flavian Prat had a choice between him and trainer Richard Mandella’s #2. He chose “Domestic Spending”. Next, exotic players should not ignore #10 “Yibir” (12-1), a three year-old who will be coming late, if at all. The wagers: $3 Win #3, then #$2 Double #3 with #5. Total = $5.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 12. Post time 8:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Classic. A 10 furlong dirt race. Purse: $6 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Authentic”, trained by Bob Baffert. He won at 4-1 odds. He also set the track record for 10 furlongs at Keeneland. Two days after the race came the announcement - - “Authentic” has been retired.
Last year’s pick by this blogger: “Improbable” who finished second.
For this 2021 Classic, it is hard to ignore the past two races by #5 “Knicks Go” (5-2). He has shown a high cruising speed in both, and he won both nine furlong Grade I races in under 1:48. If he brings his “A Game”, he will win by two lengths. In 2021, he is just much better than his opponents. At odds of 8-5 or better, he deserves a visit to the ATM machine, but do not “pull the trigger” until 5 minutes before post time. By then, the trend will be known. For the purposes of this blog, the assumption is that he will be 9-5 with 5 minutes to post.
For exacta bettors, you may wish to consider #3 “Hot Rod Charlie” (4-1). This late-blooming three year-old is improving quickly. His dam also dropped “Mitole”, a 2019 BC winner at Santa Anita.
The wager: $50 win #5. Total = $50.
Total for Saturday, November 6th = $155.
Total Wagers for two days = $205.
