Breeders’ Cup 2022

                             Keeneland

November  4 & 5

Weather Watch:  Sunny, low 70s on Friday.  Cloudy with showers after 2 P.M. on Saturday.  

Format:

This is the only post for both days.  In the event of scratches, this post will not be updated. 

Wagering focus:  Over 60% of the $321 listed wagers involve  two horses:

• “Nations Pride” in The Turf, and
• “Flightline” in The Classic.
• The other 40% can be described as “playing around the edges”.   

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Friday, November 4th

Friday Keeneland Race No. 1. Post time 11:55 A.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   Purse $185K.   An 8 1/2 furlong race run under allowance conditions.

No pick. No wager.  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 2. Post time 12:30 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to maiden two-year old fillies.  Purse = $150K. 

Trainer Todd Pletcher enters #8 “Vivid Dreams” (9-2) whose maternal grand dam has dropped four $100K winners.  

The wagers:  $2 Win #8, then $2 Double 8 w 6.  Total = $4.

    

Friday Keeneland Race No. 3.   Post time 1:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  A 6 1/2 furlong sprint for horse that have not won two races.   Purse = $160K.

Luis rides #6 “Pro Oxidant” (8-1) for Green Lantern Stables.  Yes, his September race at Churchill was horrible, but he has trained well since.  He is not the worst stab in the world.  

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #6.  Total = $4.  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 4.  Post time 1:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to two year-olds that have not won twice.   Purse = $160K.

Ricardo’s #11 “Tres Soles” (5-1) just might get the jump on the overwhelming Baffert favorite.  The wallet hopes so.  

The wager:  $2 Double #11 with #1.  Total = $2.  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 5.  Post time 2:15 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.    The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stake.   A Grade II, 13 furlong dirt race Purse = $350K.

From the rail, #1 “Rattle N Roll” (5-2) saves ground the entire way.  The jockey won’t have to do too much either.

The wager:  $2 Double #1 with #12.  Total = $2. 

 

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Friday Keeneland Race No. 6.  Post time: 3:00 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf Sprint.  A Grade I, 5 1/2  furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

Last year’s winner: “Twilight Gleaming” at odds of 5-1.  This was trainer Wesley Ward’s third straight victory in this race.  This Irish-bred winner was owned by Stonestreet Stable and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.  

Last Year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Twilight Gleaming”. 

Trainer Wesley Ward goes for four in a row with #2 “Love Reigns” (4-1) and we all wish him well - - all that is except my wallet.  The pick is a filly, i.e. #12 “The Platinum Queen” (7-2) who draws the dreaded outside post position.  This filly is something special.

 

The wagers:  $3 Win and Place #12, then $2 Double #12 with #7, then $1 “all turf” Pick 3:  12 with 5 with 4, and finally $1 Pick 5:  12 w 7 w 5 w 5 w 4.  Total = $10.  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 7. Post time 3:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Filly.  A Grade I, 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies.  Purse:  $2 Million.

 

Last year’s winner:  “Echo Zulu” at odds of 4-5.  She was owned by L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds, trained by Steve Asmussen, and ridden by Joel Rosario.  

Last year’s pick by this blogger:  “Echo Zulu”. 

On October 7th, Joel’s #7 “Chop Chop” (4-1) lost by a hair in the Alcibiades.  Let’s trust that Joel can turn the tables this time. 

 

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #7, then $2 “Special Double”:  #7 (Chop Chop) with #1 (Malathaat).  Total = $6.  

  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 8.  Post time: 4:20 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Fillies Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year old fillies.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Pizza Bianca”, at odds of 10-1.  She was owned by Bobby Flay, trained by Christophe Clement, and ridden by Jose Ortiz. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Hello You”  at 15-1 odds.  She finished 5th. 

Taking “a flyer” here on Shug’s #5 “Pleasant Passage” (12-1) who showed interest in her two starts, plus in her a.m. timed workouts in October.   Keeping Irad in the saddle does not hurt either.

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #5, then $1 Pick 3:  5 w 5 w 4.  Total = $5.  

  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 9.  The Juvenile.  A Grade I, 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year olds.  Purse:  $2 Million.  Post time:  5:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.

Last year’s winner: “Corniche” at odds of 7-5.  He was owned by Speedway Stable, trained by Bob Baffert, and ridden by Mike Smith.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Corniche”.

First of all, congratulations to trainer Tommy Amoss for keeping jockey Edgar Morales on #9 “Curly Jack” (20-1).  All too often the connections forget the little guys who toil day after day in this business.  Next, before we anoint one of trainer Bob Baffert’s entrants as the winner, I just get the feeling that #5 “Verifying” (10-1) was not asked for his best effort on that sloppy track on October 1st.   This colt’s dam “Diva Delite” is the dam of “Midnight Bisou”, a winner of over $7 Million on the racetrack.

 The wagers:  $2 Double #5 with #4, then $2 “Special Double”:  #5 (Verifying) with #4 (Flightline).  Total = $4.  

   

Friday Keeneland Race No. 10.  Post time:  5:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

 

Last year’s winner: “Modern Games”, owned by Godolphin, Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.  The winner ran for purse money only.

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Albahr” who was scratched after flipping in the starting gate.

In this 2022 edition, Appleby/Buick return with today’s probable favorite, i.e. #4 “Silver Knott” (3-1) who ran impressively at Newmarket on October 8th after disappointing at Doncaster in September.  These connections know how to win at the Breeders’ Cup.  Next, jockey Mike Smith’s #2 “Packs a Wahlop” (6-1) deserves consideration because he has continued to improve by winning two minor stakes races in California.  Next, Chad’s #8 “I’m Very Busy” (9-2) could not catch #13 “Major Dude” (10-1) in the Pilgrim.  Yes, the turf was yielding, but good horses find a way to win.  Finally, #13 “Major Dude” would have been “the pick”, but that outside post position is a major disadvantage - - - leaving #4 “Silver Knott” as the choice.

 

The “Special Double” wagers:  

$5 #4 (Silver Knott) with #7 (Nations Pride), then

$2 #2 (Packs a Wahlop) with #7 (Nations Pride).  

Total wagers = $7. 

 

Total for Friday, November 5th =  $44.

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Saturday, November 5th

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 1. Post time 10:30 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time. 

A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to maiden two-year olds.  Purse = $150K. 

Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to debut #10 “Expect More” (8-1) here, expecting a higher-than-normal purse.  He got it.  The colt’s last a.m. timed workout is encouraging.

  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #10.  Total = $4.    

  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 2. Post time 11:05 A.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.

A 6 1/2 furlong dirt sprint run under allowance conditions.  Purse = $195K. 

Former claimer #4 “Silk Trade” (10-1) offers good value in a race with many open questions.

  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #4.   Total = $4.  

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Saturday Keeneland Race No. 3.   Post time: 11:50 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Sprint.  A Grade 1, seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse: $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Ce Ce”, at odds of 6-1, owned by Bo Hirsch, trained by Michael McCarthy, and ridden by Victor Espinosa.   

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Gamine” who finished a distant 3rd at odds of 2-5. 

In this 2022 edition, there will be many fans of #13 “Echo Zulu” (6-1), and who can blame them?  Those fans will then look at the rest of the field and notice Chad Brown’s #8 “Goodnight Olive” (3-1) and say “Oh No!  I’ve seen this movie before!”.  That’s right.  Chad has brought this filly along slowly through her conditions, and all of those pre-August races included medication on race day.   Then, in her only graded stakes race - - - the storied Grade I Ballerina at Saratoga - - Chad ran her without Lasix and she won  impressively.  So while we keep this in mind and congratulate the connections of “Goodnight Olive”, we also turn the page to find today’s winner.   The pick was going to be  “Kimari”  who has been training here at Keeneland for seven weeks.  However, her connections opted to face the boys later in the card. Rats!  I was sure she would perform well here.  

The pick is trainer Bill Mott’s #5 “Frank’s Rockette” (6-1), a daughter of “Into Mischief” and out of an “Indian Charlie” broodmare.   The trainer decided to keep her home and train her up to this race - - - something this blogger thinks of highly.  

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #5, then $2 Double #5 with #6, then $1 Pick 3:  5 w 6 w 6/7.  Total = $8.  

  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 4.  Post time:  12:29 P.M.   Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf Sprint.  A Grade 1, 5 1/2  furlong  turf race.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Golden Pal”, a 3 year-old colt at odds of 5 to 2.  He was no longer owned by Ranlo Investments.  This year he was owned by Magnier, Tabor, and Smith, etc., still trained by Wesley Ward, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.  

 Last year’s distance was 5 furlongs. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “A Case of You” who finished 5th at 8-1.

 On August 19th, #6 “Highfield Princess” (7-2) beat “The Platinum Queen” at York by over two lengths while toting 138 pounds.   Today she carries 123 pounds.  Yes, she has to get the jump on #8 “Golden Pal” (2-1) but she is certainly capable.

  The wager:  $3 Win and Place #6, then $2 Double #6 with #6, and finally a $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 3/5.  Total = $10.  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 5.   Post time:  1:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Dirt Mile.  A Grade 1,  8 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Life is Good”, owned by China Horse Club and WinStar Farm,  trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.   as the 4-5 favorite. He won by 5 lengths but was nearly a full second slower than the 30 year old track record for this distance.     

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Silver State” at 3-1 odds. 

Trainer Bob Baffert’s #6 “Laurel River” (9-2) seems to be improving late in the year.  It should be a real good race between him and #7 “Cody’s Wish” (5-2).  This wallet will side with the son of “Into Mischief” in this puzzler. 

The wager:  $2 Double #6 with #3, then $1 Pick 3:  6/7 w 3 w 5.  Total = $4.  

   

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 6.  Post time:  1:50 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Turf.  A Grade 1, 9 1/2 furlong grass race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Loves Only You” at 11 furlongs.  She was owned by DMM Dream Club, trained by Yoshito Yahagi, and ridden by Yuga Kawada.  She won at odds 4-1.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Love” who finished 2 lengths behind the winner at odds of 3-1. 

The MOTO pick is #3 “Nashwa” (5-2) - - hands down.  She has two Group 1 wins this year and was competitive in her last start on soft turf.  This is her race to lose.  Next, and not without a chance, is Chad’s #9 “Rougir” (12-1).  Her win in the E.P. Taylor just 4 weeks ago was impressive.  The mystery filly is #5 “Tuesday” (8-1) who, while racing well on soft turf, just might thrive on a harder surface.  (Note:  the early weather forecast calls for a 40% chance of showers after 2 P.M.)

 

The wagers:  $5 Win and Place #3, then $2 Double #3 with #5, then $1 Exacta Box 3/5, then $1 Pick 3:  3/5 w 5 w 4, and finally $1 Pick 6:  3 w 5 w 4 w 1/7 w 7 w 4.  Total = $18.     

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 7.  Post time: 2:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Sprint.  A Grade 1, 6 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $2 Million.

   

Last year’s winner: “Aloha West”, owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners., trained by Wayne Catalano, ridden by Jose Ortiz, at odds of 11-1.

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Special Reserve” who finished 4th at odds of 10-1. 

Let’s start with “the elephant in the room”, i.e. #9 “Jackie’s Warrior” (4-5) who was extremely disappointing in The Forego on Travers Day at Saratoga.  It was ugly - - - so ugly to force a “toss” in this race.  Next, trainer Wesley Ward’s #2 “Kimari” (4-1) will be on a ticket.  Her September 25th race was better than what is showing on paper.  Next, trainer Bill Mott’s #6 “Elite Power” (6-1) has won four in a row, all by open lengths, making him a definite contender.  Finally, the pick is last year’s winner #5 “Aloha West” (12-1) who has been ripping down the barn since arriving at Keeneland. 

The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 2/5, then $2 Double #5 with #4, then $1 Pick 3:  5 w 4 w 1/7, then $0.50 Pick 5:  5 w 4 w 1/7 w 7 w 4.  Total = $7.  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 8.  Post time:  3:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Mile.  A Grade 1, 8 furlong turf race.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

 

Last year’s winner:  “Space Blues”, a 5 year-old Irish bred.  He won as the 2-1 favorite.    He was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Space Blues”.

When comparing Lanfranco Dettori’s #13 “Kinross” (9-2) to the rest of this field, the first concern was that this will be his fourth race since September 11th, and the fifth since  August 20th.  That is a heavy work load.  The next concern is that his has never won at Deauville.  The third concern?  Outside post.  And finally, the fourth concern - - - he is not really a sprinter, nor is he a miler.  With so many concerns, he had to be tossed.  Next, the Charles Appleby/William Buick combo for #4 “Modern Games” (7-2) is noted.  In July he finished second to (arguably) Europe’s best - - “Baaeed” - - whose season ended earlier than planned.  Finally, #9 “Malavath” (15-1) is a rather speedy three year-old filly with some upside.  She finished second at DelMar last November as a two year-old.  She will be on  tickets.

   

The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 4/9, then $2 Double 4 w 1, then $1 Double 4/9 w 1, then $1 Pick 3: 4/9 w 1/7 w 7, and finally $0.50 Pick 4:  4/9 w 1/7 w 7 w 4.  Total = $12.  

 

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 9.   Post time: 3:55 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Distaff.  A Grade 1, 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

 

Last year’s winner: “Marche Lorraine” at odds of 50-1.   She is owned by U Carrot Farm,   trained by Yashito Yahagi, and ridden by Olsin Murphy.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Letruska”, the 9-5 favorite who “folded” and finished 32 lengths behind the winner. 

This should be one helluva good race.  First, Chad’s #7 “Search Results” (9-2) just keeps getting better and better.  She could surprise.  The pick is Johnny V’s #1 “Malathaat” (3-1) who just looks like she is sitting on a big one.  Sure, Todd’s other entrant #6 “Nest” (9-5) has been extremely competitive all year and she will be formidable.  I’m just leaning to a 1-7-6 finish.

 The wagers:  $2 Double #1 with #7, then $2 Pick 3:  1/7 w 7 w 4, and finally $1 Pick 4:  1/7 w 7 w 4 w 5.  Total = $8.  

  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 10.  Post time: 4:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf.  A 12 furlong grass race.  Purse:  $4 Million. 

 

Last year’s winner: “Yibir”, a 3 year-old gelding, set a new track record at odds of 8-1. He was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.     

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Domestic Spending” who was scratched. 

This appears to be another year when the Euros did not send their best.  However, Godolphin did send #7 “Nations Pride”, a 3 year-old who has raced three times in the U.S.  In his first U.S. race, he started from post position number 10 and finished second.  This race was restricted to three year-olds, as was his second race which he won.  Then he won a second U.S. race by six lengths.   He will be formidable, and those 3-1 morning line odds would be generous.  Oh, and by the way, his trainer is Charles Appleby and his jockey is William Buick.   As ol’ Yogi would say, “It’s deja vu all over again.” 

 

The wagers:  $100 Place #7, then $100 Double #7 with #4.  Total = $200.  

     

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 11.  Post time 5:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Classic.  A 10 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $6 Million.

Last year’s winner:  “Knicks Go”, trained by Brad Cox.  He won at 3-1 odds.  He was owned by Korea Racing Authority and ridden by Joel Rosario.    

Last year’s pick by this blogger:  “Knicks Go”.

There is no way on this earth that I am wagering against #4 “Flightline” (3-5).   In addition, since the exacta could be completed by just about any of the others, I’ll skip that too. 

The wager:  $2 Double #4 with #5.  Total = $2.  

 

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 12. Post time 6:20 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Fall Harvest Stakes.  An ungraded 8 furlong turf race restricted to fillies and mares.  Purse = $350K.

 

Even though she has not run in many months, jockey Flavien Prat opted for #5 “Shantisara” (6-5) over Chad’s other entrant, i.e. #7 “Technical Analysis” (3-1).   Next, trainer Al Stall’s #4 “Dalika” (7-2) has had a wonderful career and we wish her well as she heads to the breeding shed.  No wager here.  

Total for Saturday, November 5th = $277.  

Total Wagers for two days = $321. 

Bankroll from 2021 Breeders’ Cup:

Wagered $205, Collected $328.20, Refunds = $18 (6 for 20).