Breeders’ Cup 2016
Friday, November 4 and 5
This is the only posting
for both Santa Anita cards of Friday, November 4th and Saturday,
November 5th. My seats are on
the “apron” of the Santa Anita Clubhouse, Section E, Row 9. If you are there, drop by to say Hi.
Note: Even though I witnessed “Arrogate” annihilate
the field in the Travers at Saratoga, I will not be betting against “California
Chrome” in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
The Chrome is just a freak.
Fall, 2016 Bankroll
going to Breeders’ Cup = plus $268.35 (11 for 46)
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 1. Post time 11:25 A.M. Pacific. A sprint for allowance horses.
John Sadler’s #5 “Blameitonthelaw”
(5-1) makes his third 2016 start. Since
his last loss, he has had several encouraging workouts. This
is not best field ever assembled. The
wager: $2 Win #5, then $2 Double #5 with
#5. Total = $4.
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 2. Post time 12 Noon Pacific. A turf sprint for allowance-type fillies and
mares.
Richard Mandella’s #5
“Tryst” (6-1) is out of a Carson City dam who has dropped four others with over
$200K in earnings. Love that breeding. The wager:
$3 W/P #5, then $2 Double #5 with #1.
Total = $8.
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 3. The
Marathon. Purse $200K. Post time 12:35 P.M. Pacific. A 14 furlong dirt stake race.
A timid vote here for #1
“Scuba” (5-2). His last two races were
not terrible. The wager: $2 Win #1, then $2 Double #1 with #8. Total = $4.
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 4. The Damascus.
An ungraded dirt sprint. Post
time 1:10 P.M. Pacific.
The MOTO play is #3
“Jazzy Times” but his last race was awful.
No thanks. While we have not seen
#8 “Prospect Park (5-2) in a long time, his recent workout at San Luis Rey
Downs was super. The wager: $2 Win #8, then $2 Double both #3 and #8 with
#11. Total = $6.
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 5. Post time 1:45 P.M. Pacific. A sprint for two year-old state-bred fillies.
The dam-side of #11 “Ms
Wayaka” (8-1) is good enough to make a statement in this puzzler. The wager:
$2 W/P/S #11, then $2 Double #11 with 5/13. Total = $10.
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Unless otherwise noted,
this is the wagering pattern for Breeders’ Cup Races:
$2 W/P/S on “top
choice”.
$2 Double: “top” and
“second” choice with “Top Choice” in the next race.
Thus, unless otherwise
noted, the total of all wagers in each race is $10. Why?
I’ve had good “doubles” luck here at Santa Anita. Why change now?
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 6. The
Juvenile Turf. An 8 furlong turf race
for two year olds. Purse: $1 Million.
Post time: 2:25 P.M. Pacific.
Some handicappers may
look to the Dixiana Bourbon at Keeneland as a “key race”, and rightly so. Let’s face it: Chad’s #14 “Ticonderoga” (15-1) ran a good
second to Mark Casse’s #2 “Keep Quiet” (12-1).
Backers of either cannot be faulted.
The top honors contenders also include Amerman Racing’s #13 “Oscar
Performance” (4-1), a full brother to “Oscar Nominated”, a Grade 3 winner, who
is entered for today’s 10th race.
The Euro entrants could also surprise but, frankly, not will be included
in these wagers. The pick is #5 “Made
You Look” (12-1). Yes, the speed figs
are not impressive and we have not seen him since August. However, I was in the stands on that August
day. This horse laid just off the pace
on the inner dirt. When the hedge opened
just a tad, the jockey did not tell the horse to take the inside route. “Made You Look” saw that opening and
immediately took it himself. That’s the
sign of one smart animal. As the field
continued down the stretch, “Made You Look” seemed to look for his competition
and exerted just enough effort to not embarrass his rivals. As of this writing on October 25th,
my estimate of his post time odds are a juicy 6-1 or better. Note that the morning line odds are 12-1 - -
which is much too high for this guy.
Top Choice: #5 “Made You
Look”
2nd
Choice: #13 “Oscar Performance”.
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 7. The Dirt Mile.
An 8 furlong dirt race.
Purse: $1 Million. Post time:
3:05 P.M. Pacific.
Trainer Bob Baffert’s #3
“Dortmund” (6-5) has made a huge comeback in this latter part of 2016. He is a deserving favorite in this short (for
him) race. He was my 2015 Derby horse
choice (won by “American Pharoah”).
Next, trainer John Sadler’s #5 “Accelerate” (20-1) did not race at
2. He has only six 2016 starts, the last
three being wins. He would be my top
pick but his dam-side is a tad weak.
Finally, I’m not a fan of #7 “Runhappy” (3-1) in this race at this
track. If he wins, I don’t.
Top Choice: #3 “Dortmund”
2nd
Choice: #5 “Accelerate”.
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 8. The
Juvenile Fillies Turf. An 8 furlong turf
race for two year old fillies.
Purse: $1 Million. Post time: 3:50 P.M. Pacific.
This blogger has a bias,
i.e. runners at Deauville always get a second look. Winners at Deauville then get a pedigree
analysis. Dual winners at Deauville with
a good pedigree get bet. Martin
Schwartz’s #9 “Cavale Doree” (15-1) won twice at Deauville and her dam-side is
not shabby at all. She is the pick. Next, #7 “Intricately” (6-1), the winner of
the Moyglare Stud at the Curragh, should be very competitive here. While her dam was winless, her maternal grand
dam “Offshore Boom” dropped “Rock of Gibraltar”, a champion in Europe who
finished second to “Domediver” in the 2002 Breeders Cup Mile on soft turf. If I was a trifecta player, #5 “Victory to
Victory” (12-1) would be on that ticket.
Her dam “Points of Grace” was in the first crop of “Point Given” whose
subsequent crops were certainly not terrific.
“Points of Grace” won over $400K on the track.
Top Choice: #9 “Cavale Doree”
2nd
Choice: #7 “Intricately”.
Trifecta choice: “#5
Victory to Victory”.
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 9. The
Distaff. A 9 furlong dirt race for
fillies and mares. Purse: $2 Million.
Post time: 4:35 P.M.
The undefeated #1
“Songbird” (6-5) will take some beating.
If she is not the wagering favorite, she should be. Next, trainer John Sadler has made sure that
#5 “Stellar Wind” (5-2) had a light schedule in her four year-old season. She has four firsts and one second in five
starts on this track. That record makes
her the pick.
Top Choice: #5 “Stellar
Wind”
2nd Choice:
#1 “Songbird”.
Wagers for this race: $2 Win #5, then $2 Double #5 with both #1 and
#2. Total = $6.
Friday Santa Anita Race No. 10. Post time 5:10 P.M. Pacific. A Grade 2 turf stake for three year-olds at 9
furlongs. Purse: $200K.
The wagering money will
show up for #1 “Free Rose” (3-1) who has been on or near the pace in
California. He appears rested and raring
to go for this spot. I’ll also give #2
“Frank Conversation” (15-1) a try. His
connections used a recent stakes race to prep him for this spot.
The Wagers: $2 Win #2, then $1 Exacta Box #1 and #2. Total = $4.
Total for Friday,
November 4th = $72.
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 1. Post time 10:15 A.M. Pacific. A turf sprint for two year-olds. Purse
$100K.
Taking a flyer on #7
“Oopper Wallah” (15-1) who had a nice maiden breaker at Delmar, followed by a
clunker. “There is a winner in every
race.” - - so why not? The wager: $3 Place #7, then $2 Double #7 with #4 and
turn the page. Total = $5.
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 2. Post time 10:50 A.M. Pacific. A sprint for state bred two year-olds. Purse:
$200K.
Can’t beat “the chalk”. $2 Double #4 with #4 and turn the page. Total
= $2.
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 3. Post time 11:25 A.M. Pacific. A turf sprint stake for fillies and mares. Purse:
$100K.
Trainer Tom Proctor’s #4
“Most Beautiful” (12-1) debuted at Belmont this Fall in a $100K stake. Yes, she finished 4th but only one
length behind the winner. She could
surprise this bunch. Next, #13 “Lady
Shipman” (5-2) is certainly the class of this group. However, at these short odds on the downhill
course make her a bad bet. The
wagers: $2 Win #4, then $1 Exacta Box
4/13, then $2 Double #4 with #9. Total =
$6.
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Unless otherwise noted,
this is the wagering pattern for Breeders’ Cup Races:
$2 W/P/S on “top
choice”.
$2 Double: “top” and
“second” choice with “Top Choice” in the next race.
Thus, unless otherwise
noted, the total of all wagers in each race is $10. Why?
I’ve had good “doubles” luck here at Santa Anita. Why change now?
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 4. The Juvenile Filly. An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old
fillies. Purse: $2 Million.
Post time: 12:05 P.M. Pacific.
Readers of this blog
know that I had $40 to win on #8 “Dancing Rags” (12-1) when she won the
Alcibiades at Keeneland at 13-1. Thus,
while she should be considered a strong contender, her Alcibiades was a tad
slow. On that same day just two races
earlier on the card, a maiden two year-old filly ran the same distance 1/5 of a
second faster. Next, trainer Todd
Pletcher’s #5 “Sweet Loretta” (6-1) comes in undefeated. She won two stakes races at the Spa and has
been training up to this race for 9 weeks.
She should be forwardly placed.
This is her dam’s first foal. Her
maternal grand dam dropped “Spring in the Air”, winner of the Alcibiades as a
two year-old, with over $900K in earnings, albeit mostly against Canadian
competition. Next, #11 “Daddys Lil
Darling” (12-1) could not beat “Dancing Rags” in the Alcibiades at Keeneland. No thanks.
Next, #4 “Yellow Agate” (8-1) had a nice victory in the Frizette at
Belmont Park four weeks ago. Her owners
(China Horse Club) are a smart outfit so she will take some money at the
windows. This blogger is not thrilled
about her dam-side. Thus, I’ll take a
pass on this filly. Next, trainer Bob
Baffert’s #12 “American Gal” (6-1) has won both of her races including one over
this surface. Her dam-side breeding is
super but her sire, while regally-bred himself, has not had much luck with his
progeny. Thus, I’ll take a pass on this filly too. Next, Ruis Racing’s #9 “Union Strike” (6-1)
broke her maiden in a Grade 1 Delmar Debutante.
(Note: Last year’s winner of the
Delmar Debutante was “Songbird”). Her
dam “Classic Strike” dropped “Handsome Mike”, a winner of the Pennsylvania
Derby and the Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland at seven furlongs. Finally, the
betting public will not be ignoring #10 “Noble and Quoted” (9-2), winner of the
Chandelier on this surface on October 1st. However, she finished fourth to “Union
Strike” in the Delmar Debutante and her dam-side is weak in comparison to her
competition.
Top Choice: #9 “Union
Strike”
2nd Choice:
#8 “Dancing Rags”.
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 5. The Filly
and Mare Turf. A 10 furlong grass race
for fillies and mares. Purse: $2 Million. Post time:
12:43 P.M. Pacific.
Last year at Keeneland,
a three year old filly named “Found” beat the boys in the 12 furlong Breeders’
Cup Turf. On August 18, 2016, “Found”
finished 2nd to #3 “Seventh Heaven” (3-1). Both fillies are trained by Aidan O’Brien - -
so I expect “Seventh Heaven” to run in this race and “Found”, winner of this
year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, to run in The Turf later on today’s
card. Oh - - and both fillies were
sired by “Galileo” too. Finally, trainer Chad Brown has done a nice job
bringing #8 “Lady Eli” (5-2) back to the races.
This filly is plain out fast and could take it all.
Top Choice: #3 “Seventh
Heaven”
2nd Choice:
#8 “Lady Eli”.
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 6. The
Sprint. A 6 furlong dirt race. Purse:
$1.5 Million. Post time: 1:21
P.M. Pacific.
When selecting for this
sprint only, this blogger has had previous success with horses having a full
five week interval leading up to this race.
This bias certainly did not work in 2015 when “Runhappy” won this race
after winning The Phoenix at Keeneland just four weeks earlier. Well, it may not work again this year since
#5 “A.P. Indian” (4-1) won the 2016 Phoenix at Keeneland and set a track record
in doing so. As good as he is, my bias
places him second.
Next, trainer Bob
Baffert’s #2 “Drefong” (7-2) won two races on this track, then won the seven
furlong Kings Bishop at the Spa in under 1:22.
Impressive! The trainer has had
nine weeks to prep him for The Sprint.
Just a slight move forward puts his nose right there with the “A.P.
Indian”.
Top Choice: #2 “Drefong”
2nd Choice:
#5 “A. P. Indian”.
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 7. The Turf
Sprint. A 6 ½ furlong downhill turf
race. Purse: $1 Million.
Post time: 2:05 P.M.
The filly #15 “Lady
Shipman” (12-1) has had a wonderful year.
How she handles Santa Anita’s downhill turf is a cause for caution. I’ll pass on this filly. The pick here is Pat Generazio’s homebred #1
“Pure Sensation” (5-1). Yes, he ran
poorly in last year’s race on that weird Keeneland turf course labeled
“good”. He likes to hear his feet rattle
and the Santa Anita turf just may be the ticket. Finally, #5 “Karar” (15-1) comes in from
Europe. While he won at Deauville (bias
alert!) and will be a price, he was one-paced in the Prix de la Foret at
Chantilly at about seven furlongs. He
will have to really step on the gas here to compete.
Top Choice: #1 “Pure
Sensation”
2nd Choice:
#5 “Karar”.
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 8. The
Juvenile. An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for
two year olds. Purse: $2 Million.
Post time: 2:43 P.M. Pacific.
Blogger’s Note: It has been many years - - so many that I
cannot remember - - since a winner has been picked for this race. Readers of this blog should take note of this
lack of success in The Juvenile.
Trainer Dale Romans’ #10
“Not This Time” (7-2) is out of “Miss Macy Sue”, a winner of over $800K on the
track and the dam of “Liams Map”. It’s
hard to argue with that pedigree. Next,
trainer Todd Pletcher has entered #4 “Theory” (12-1), a colt out of
“Gemologist”, after only two races. This
colt would normally be overlooked but his dam, “Gem Sleuth” is not shabby and
his maternal grand dam was a good producer.
Finally, Chad’s #9 “Practical Joke” (6-1) has definitely shown why he
should be one of the wagering favorites.
However, I’m passing on his chances because I’m just not impressed with
the dam side of his pedigree when facing this level of competition.
Top Choice: #10 “Not
This Time”
2nd Choice:
#4 “Theory”.
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 9. The
Turf. A 12 furlong grass race. Purse:
$4 Million. Post time: 3:22 P.M.
What a race this is
going to be. Last year’s Turf winner #10
“Found” (3-1) won the Prix l’Arc de Triomphe in October. Can she repeat
today? Sure. Next, finishing second in “The Arc” was #12
“Highland Reel” (3-1) who has won over $5 Million and has a good dam-side. Note that both “Found” and “Highland Reel”
share the same sire, i.e. “Galileo”.
Trifecta players will likely add #4 “Flintshire” (5-2) to the mix
despite his recent defeat over soft going.
I was surprised that the trainer did not scratch him that day. “Flintshire” likes to hear his feet rattle
and the weather forecast guarantees “feet rattling” today.
Top Choice: #10 “Found”
2nd Choice:
#12 “Highland Reel”
Completing the trifecta:
#4 “Flintshire”
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 10. The Filly
and Mare Sprint. A seven furlong dirt
race for fillies and mares. Purse: $1
Million. Post time: 4:01 P.M. Pacific.
Tom Morley’s #2
“Haveyougoneaway” (3-1) shocked the field in the Spa’s Ballerina, and no, she
was not on my ticket. Rarely is the
offspring of an unraced mare on my ticket but with “Curalina” mysteriously
entered in The Distaff, she is a logical choice. Finally, flying under the radar will be #12
“Finest City” (12-1). This “City Zip” filly
has been facing some good ones.
Top Choice: #12 ”Finest
City”
2nd Choice: #2 ”Haveyougoneaway”
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 11. The
Mile. An 8 furlong turf race. Purse:
$2 Million. Post time: 4:40 P.M. Pacific.
When switched to the
turf, #13 “Midnight Storm” (12-1) has become a monster. Next, if Aidan
O’Brien’s #2 “Alice Springs” (4-1) runs in this race, she will be formidable.
Since finishing second to “Catch a Glimpse” at Keeneland last year, she has won
three Group 1’s in Europe. Next, last
year’s winner of this race #8 “Tepin” (3-1) will not be on my tickets. Her connections may have gone to the well
one-too-many times in 2016. Next, Shug
and the rest of us are guessing if #9 “Ironicus” (8-1) can stay closer to the
pace. He closed from the back of the
pack in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland in October but, in my view, “hung”
allowing #4 “Miss Temple City” (12-1) to
get the win. Neither “Ironicus” nor
“Miss Temple City” will be on my tickets.
Next, #7 “Dutch Connection” (20-1) has been competitive in Group 2 &
3 races in Europe. He has an outside
chance to complete either the exacta or trifecta. Finally, #10 “Limato” (7-2) has raced only
four times in 2016, all in Group 1 races.
He won two, finished second in one, and fourth in his first race of the
year. He has won nearly $1 Million Euros
from 13 starts. Look for him late.
Top Choice: #2 “Alice Springs”
2nd Choice:
#10 “Limato”
Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 12. The
Classic. A 10 furlong dirt race. Purse:
$6 Million. Post time 5:35 P.M.
Pacific.
This blogger’s Clubhouse
view of trainer Bob Baffert’s #10 “Arrogate” (5-2) in the Travers could not
have been better. He broke from the #1
hole, went to the lead, and when he hit the far turn, we expected him to slow
stride. Nope. He never broke stride. Can he do it again? Sure, but not with my money.
Next, trainer Jimmy
Jerkens’ #8 “Shaman Ghost” (20-1) will be flying under the betting public’s
radar. This is a true 10+ furlong horse
with a nice pedigree. Sure, he will be looking
for a place finish but he is certainly capable of that. Finally, #4 “California Chrome” (1-1) is just
a freak. All other entrants are
overmatched to this guy.
Top Choice: #4
“California Chrome”
2nd Choice:
#4 “California Chrome”
Completing the exacta:
#8 “Shaman Ghost”.
The wager: $2 Straight Exacta #4 beating #8. Total for Race No. 12 = $2.
Total for Saturday,
November 5th = $95.
Total Wagers for two
days = $167.
