Breeders’ Cup ’23

Bankroll

  

Friday:  Wagered $93.  Collected $41.30.  Refunds $7.50.  

Saturday:  Wagered $234.  Collected $637.80.  No refunds.  

Net profit = $359.60.   

 

 

Breeders’ Cup 2023

Santa Anita

Friday, November 3, 2023

Saturday, November 4, 2023

 

  This post includes both days.  Total wagers equal $327.  Of that amount, $200 is devoted to “White Abarrio” in The Classic.   The remaining $127 can be described as “playing around the edges”.  

  Good luck to all.  

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Friday, November 3rd

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 1. Post time 2:30 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.  The Qatar Golden Mile Stakes. Purse = $150K.  An 8 furlong, ungraded turf stake restricted to two year-olds.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Astronomer” at odds of 30-1.   He was ridden by Ryan Moore and trained by Simon Callaghan. 

Joel’s #5 “Go With Gusto” (5-2) might be one fast filly, but #4 “Ultra Power” (3-1) is out of the dam “Unique Bella” who banked $1.2 million on the track.  Those 3-1 odds are a pipe dream.   The wager:  $2 Double #4 with #11, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 11 w 4, then $0.50 Pick 5:  4 w 5/11 w 4 w 9 w 4.  Total = $4.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 2.   Post time 3:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.   The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California state-bred two year old fillies.  Purse = $175K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Big Switch” at odds of 3.30 to 1.  She was ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. and trained by John Sadler. 

Johnny V. takes the ride on #11 “Crazy Hot” (5-1).   This lass may appreciate the outside post position much more than something in the middle of the pack.  Her dam-side shows stamina but is not overly quick.   Therefore, she will need a hot pace up front.  Don’t look for her early.  Next, the wagering public will open their wallets for jockey Mike Smith’s #5 “Mirinda” (8-5) who was dazzling at Delmar in September.  Notice that she was even money in a field of ten.  The “word was out” on her.  She must be used in the exotics.   The wager:  $2 Win #11, then $2 Double #11 with #4.  Total = $4.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 3.  Post time 3:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Senator Ken Maddy Stakes.  A 6 1/2 furlong downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares.  Purse = $150K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “A G Indy” at odds of 6.70 to 1.  She was ridden by Umberto Rispoli and trained by Doug O’Neill.  

Flavien Prat takes the mount on #4 “Elm Drive” (6-1) who won on this course on May 23rd.   Even though her dam was unraced, she has been an OK producer.  Her maternal grand dam was also a producer.  Now, her last dirt race was lousy - - right?  The fact is that she was not running against the Little Sisters of the Poor  recently.   She looks “live” and gets class relief today.   The wager:  $3 Win and Place #4.   Total = $6.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 4.  Post time 4:15 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Golden State Juvenile Stakes.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California site-bred two year olds.     Purse = $175K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Finneus” at odds of 4-1.  He was ridden by Joel Rosario and trained by Walter Solis.

He has been off for nearly three months, so maybe the wagering public will forget #9 “Tiger in My Tank” (15-1).   His dam won over $400K sprinting in state-bred races.   At this price, he his hard to ignore.   The wager:  $2 Double #9 w #4, the $1 Pick 3:  9 w 4 w 7/8.  Total = $4.   

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Friday Santa Anita Race No. 5.  Post time: 5:00 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf Sprint.   A 5 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

Last year’s winner: “Mischief Magic”, owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.   This colt won at odds of 6-1. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “The Platinum Queen” who finished 30 lengths behind  at odds of 6-1.

Trainer Michael Appleby’s #4 “Big Evs” (3-1) smoked ‘em at Doncaster in September.  This two year-old has already won over $225K.  He should be formidable.  The wager:  $5 W/P #4, then $2 Double #4 with 7/8.  Total = $14.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 6. Post time 5:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Filly.  An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner:  “Wonder Wheel” at odds of 6-1.  She is owned by D.J. Stable LLC, trained by Norm Casse, and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione.  Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Chop Chop” who finished dead last as the betting favorite. 

The daughter of BC Champ “Beholder” is in this race, i.e. #7 “Tamara” (4-5).   She is a speedball and will be formidable.   She is a “must use” in exotic wagers.   Next, just to her outside is #8 “Esprit Enchant” (20-1) who could be anything - - - and at 20+ to 1, I just can’t leave her off my ticket.  Her dam-side is not shabby.  The wager:  $2 Place #8, then $2 Double 7/8 with 3.   Total = $6.   

 

Friday Santa Anita  Race No. 7.  Post time: 6:20 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Fillies Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year old fillies.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Mediate”, owned by Magnier, et al, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.   She was the 2-1 betting favorite.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Pleasant Passage” who finished second at 6-1 odds.  

Let’s start with a few notes here.  First, a Euro did win this race last year, but this particular race has largely been dominated by North American runners.  Second, to ignore the September 30th race by #6 “Porta Fortuna” (5-1) is stupid.   She has already banked over $400K.   Third, another Euro to watch is #14 “Les Pavots” (8-1) who has won three races in France.  Her post position draw was lousy though.  Next, the pick is not Chad’s #12 “Hard to Justify” (6-1), winner of the Miss Grillo against ten other rivals in New York in October.  Her chances from a wide post position are dim.  Finally, the pick is Rigney Racing’s #3 “Buchu” (6-1) who did not show much at Saratoga.   She moved forward in the Fall and won the Jessamine at Keeneland from an outside post.  Her dam “Flowering Peach” earned about $50K on the track while her maternal grand dam banked over $300K.   She should be formidable.  The wager:  $15 W/P/S #3.   Total = $45.    

    

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 8.  Post time:  7:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.

  The Juvenile.  An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year olds.  Purse = $2 Million

Last year’s winner: “Forte”, owned by Mike Repole and St. Elias Stable, trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.  He was the 5-1 second choice to “Cave Rock” who was the 1-2 favorite.   

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Verifying” who finished 12 lengths behind the winner at 17-1 odds. 

Looking at this 2023 field, I’m expecting a cavalry charge into the first turn, and expecting blistering early fractions.   Thus, I’m looking for “a stalker”, and #4 “Timberlake” (4-1) fits that bill.  His October 27th a.m. timed workout shows fitness and willingness.  The wager:  $2 W/P #4, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 2/8 w 2.  Total = $6.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 9.  Post time:  7:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Victoria Road” at 5-1 odds, owned by Magnier, et al, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Silver Knott” who lost by a nose at 8-5.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien won this race last year, and this year he has two formidable contenders:  #2 “River Tiber” (3-1) and #8 “Unquestionable” (4-1).  His other entrant drew an extremely wide post position.   While neither of the top two hail from an accomplished female side of the breeding, they are not that shabby either.   When making horizontal wagers, it would be wise to use both.   The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #2.  Total = $2.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 10.  Post time 8:10 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   A 6 furlong dirt race.     Purse = $100K.

Trainer Mark Glatt’s #2 “Ghost of Midnight” (4-1) was very competitive on October 8th.   Right back!  The wager:  $2 Win #2.  Total = $2.   

Total for Friday, November 3rd =  $93.

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Breeders’ Cup 2023

Santa Anita

Saturday, November 4th

Saturday Santa Anita  Race No. 1. Post time 1:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.   The Aftercare Alliance.  A Grade II, 13 furlong dirt race run under allowance conditions.  Purse = $250K.

No pick.  Short field.  Pass.

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 2. Post time 1:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Twilight Derby.  A Grade II, 9 furlong turf stake restricted to 3 year-olds.  Purse =  $250K.

Back to the turf for trainer Bob Baffert’s #3 “Reincarnate” (8-1).   He had no success so far, but his dirt success has been marginal.   His very smart connections paid $775K for him at a sale.  Against this bunch, he is a player.   The wager:  $2 Double #3 with #5 and turn the page.  Total = $2.   

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Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 3.   Post time:  2:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Dirt Mile.  A Grade 1,  8 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Cody’s Wish”, owned by Godolphin, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Junior Alvarado.  He was the wagering favorite at 2-1 odds.    Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Laurel River” who was scratched. 

The MOTO wager is #3 “Cody’s Wish” (9-5).   However, if he has lost a step, then trainer Todd Pletcher’s #5 “Charge It” (5-1) is more than capable.    The wager:  $2 Double #5 with #6.  Total = $2.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 4.  Post time:  3:10 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Turf.  A Grade 1, 10 furlong grass race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Tuesday” at 9 1/2 furlongs.  This 3 year-old filly is owned by Westerberg, Magnier, Tabor, and Smith, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.  She won at odds of 4-1.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Nashwa”, the 3-1 favorite who finished 3 lengths behind the winner.

Frequent readers of this blog know that entrants who have run at Deauville (France) get a second look.  However, entrants who have won at Deauville get selected and bet.   Trainer John Gosden’s #6 “Inspiral” (5-2) won at Deauville in August, then won at Newmarket in October.   Old saying:  “When you see a fast train, either get on or get out of the way.”  Oh - - and those 5-2 odds are too low.   Look for about 7-2 by post time.  The wager:  $2 W/P #6, then $1 Pick 3:  6 w 1 w 6.  Total = $5.   

 

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 5.   Post time: 3:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Sprint.  A Grade 1, seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse: $1 Million.  

Last year’s winner: “Goodnight Olive” at odds of 2-1.  She was owned by First Row Partners and Team Hanley,  trained by Chad Brown, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.    Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Frank’s Rockette” who finished 16 lengths behind the winner.

 

Chad’s #1 “Goodnight Olive” (6-5) is still the champ.   Her 2023 races have been good, not great, but still good.   Chad knows how to get them ready.   Oh - - and those 6-5 odds?   No.  She will be closer to 2-1 by post time. The wager:  $2 Double #1 w #6.   Total = $2.     

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 6.  Post time:  4:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Mile.  A Grade 1, 8 furlong turf race.  Purse:  $2 Million.

  

Last year’s winner:  “Modern Games” at odds of 7-5.    He was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby,  and ridden by William Buick.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Modern Games”.

Ouch!  Trainer Charles Appleby’s #14 “Master of the Seas” (7-2) drew an outside post.   If he had an inside post, he would be a logical contender.  From Post Number 14?   Good luck with that.   Next, a more logical choice would be the Japanese invader #10 “Songline” (5-2) who just missed from Post 10 in his most recent start.  Finally, the filly #6 “Mawj” (4-1) from Godolphin will be formidable.   She just might take the lead into the first turn and never look back.   Look out!  The wager:   $2 W/P #6, then  $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 9.  Total = $5.    

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 7.  Post time: 5:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Distaff.  A Grade 1, 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Malathaat” at odds of 3-1.  She is owned by Shadwell Stables., trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by John Velazquez.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Malathaat”.

Trainer Brad Cox’s #4 “Idiomatic” (5-2) has won seven times in eight starts this year.

Trainer Brendan Walsh’s #3 “Pretty Mischievous” (8-1) has won four of six against three year-olds, including the Kentucky Oaks.   However, we are not looking for the best horse.  Instead we are looking for the entrant who is peaking at this time of year, and I think I’ve got one.  Trainer Chad Brown has been protecting #6 “Search Results” (5-1) by running her in races with lesser competition.  In four starts this year, she has banked over $400K, and she is fresh as a daisy.   The fact that Irad Ortiz, Jr. has accepted the ride provides some degree of encouragement.   The wager:  $2 Double #6 with #9.   Total = $2.   

  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 8.  Post time: 5:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf.  A 12 furlong grass race.  Purse:  $4 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Rebel’s Romance” at odds of 6-1.    H was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by James Doyle. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Nations Pride”, the 3-1 favorite who finished a non-threatening fifth.

It is hard to go past #9 “Mostahdaf” (5-2) given that other competition failed to show up.   The odds will be closer to 9-5 by post time.   Finishing the exacta could be jockey Ryan Moore’s #3 “Auguste Rodin” (3-1).  When this colt wants to run, he can be formidable.   The question is will he want to run after a 5,000 mile journey?   The wager:  $10 Double #9 with #3.   Total = $10.   

   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 9.  Post time 6:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Classic.  A 10 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $6 Million.

Last year’s winner:  The undefeated “Flightline” at 2-5 odds.  He was owned by multiple owners, trained by John Sadler, and ridden by Flavien Prat.  Last year’s pick by this blogger:  “Flightline”.

Welcome to the most contentious BC Classic in a few years.   Any handicapper could get lost in all of the statistics.   Do we need to do that?   I don’t think so.   

In the recent past, when we saw both “Arrogate” and “Flightline” before their BC wins, they were both awesome from a visual standpoint.   As we constructed our tickets, we just kept thinking about those visually impressive races.   Well, in my humble opinion, the same thing happened in 2023, and the race was The Whitney at Saratoga where #3 “White Abarrio” (4-1) won by six lengths.   After the race, his trainer said “We know what he wants to do.  He has told us.  He wants lots of time between races.”   

  Since The Whitney, I just have not seen any other horse who was that impressive.   Therefore, “White Abarrio” is the pick, and I will not be shy.   The wager:  $100 W/P #3.  Total = $200.     

   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 10.  Post time:  7:25 P.M.   Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf Sprint.  A Grade 1, 5  furlong  turf race.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Caravel”, a five year-old mare.  She is owned by Qatar Racing, Madaket, and Detampel, trained by Brad Cox, and ride by Tyler Gaffalione  at odds of 43-1.  Last year’s distance was 5 1/2 furlongs. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Highfield Princess” who finished 4th at 3-1 odds.

Both #5 “Live in the Dream” (9-2) and #6 “Gear Jockey” (12-1) lit up the tote board this year.  Also, trainer Michael Trombetta’s #12 “Arzak” (6-1) did it twice.   He did it without Lasix at Keeneland vs. eleven other entrants.   He is “the pick”.    The wager:  $2 W/P #12.  Total = $4.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 11.  Post time: 8:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Sprint.  A Grade 1, 6 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $2 Million.  

 

Last year’s winner: “Elite Power”, owned by Juddmonte, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.,  at odds of 5-1.

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Aloha West” at 13-1.  

This is a most competitive race, and if you pick the winner, you will get paid.   Trainer Bill Mott’s #8 “Elite Power” (9-5) will be closer to 5-2 when they spring the latch.   His connections decided he would need 3 months to get ready for this test.  As for who will finish second, pick ‘em.  The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #8.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 12. Post time 8:30 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   A 6 1/2 furlong downhill turf race for fillies and mares.   Purse:  $100K.

Trainer Mark Casse must have had space available on the plane for #6 “Woodbine Way” (5-1).  No thanks.  Instead, #8 “Real Fire” (6-1) has shown improvement in her last two starts plus shows a rather quick a.m. timed workout on October 20th.  No wager.   

 

Total for Saturday, November 4th = $234.  

Total Wagers for two days = $327.  

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