Breeders’ Cup 2020
Keeneland
Friday, November 6th
Friday Keeneland Race No. 1. Post time 11:30 A.M. The Nyquist Stakes. Purse $125K. A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race for two year olds.
Jose’s #6 “Quick Tempo” (5-2) was very quick in Philadelphia on 10/20 and is the deserving fav here. The pick is #9 “Saffa’s Day” (7-2) merely due to the “win over the track” angle. The picks:
First: #9 “Saffa’s Day”.
Second: #6 “Quick Tempo”.
The wager: $2 Double 6/9 w 11. Total = $4.
Friday Keeneland Race No. 2. Post time 12:05 P.M. The Songbird Stakes. Purse = $125K. A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies.
The homebred #11 “Farsighted” (5-1) has a “win over the track”, and a very nice win indeed. Next, trainer Mark Casse’s #14 “California Lily” (9-2) ran a hole in the wind in her only start. She would be a deserving fav. The picks:
First: #11 “Farsighted”.
Second: #14 “California Lily”.
The wager: $2 W/P #11, then $1 Double #11 with 5/14. Total = $6.
Friday Keeneland Race No. 3. Post time 12:40 P.M. The Bryan Station Stakes. A 9 furlong turf race for three year-olds. Purse = $150K.
An outstanding betting race. Stab the program and pray for some luck. The pick is Godolphin’s #5 “Pixelate” (8-1), a well-travelled three year-old who gets Umberto back in the irons today. Umberto is a real plus. Next, for second, the pick is #14 “Bye Bye Melvin” (8-1) who has no early speed. The extra distance should help. The picks:
First: #5 “Pixelate”
Second: #14 “Bye Bye Melvin”
The wager: $2 Win #5, then $1 Exacta Box 5/14. Total = $4.
Friday Keeneland Race No. 4. Post time 1:15 P.M. The McConnell Springs Stakes. A six furlong dirt sprint for fillies and mares. Purse = $150K.
The pick is #1 “Bye Bye J” (7-2) but this wallet cannot open for this race.
No wager.
Friday Keeneland Race No. 5. Post time 1:50 P.M. The Aftercare Alliance Stakes. A Grade II, 13 furlong dirt race. Purse = $200K.
Well, they are not calling this race “The Marathon”, but that is what it is.
The pick is Johnny V’s #6 “You’re to Blame” (8-1) who has banked over $600K. Yes, he has not won this year but he has danced the dance. The wagers: $2 Place #6, then $2 Double 6 w 7. Total = $4.
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Friday Keeneland Race No. 6. Post time: 2:30 P.M. The Juvenile Turf Sprint. A 5 1/2 furlong turf race for two year olds. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Four Wheel Drive”, owned by Breeze Easy LLC and trained by Wesley Ward. This colt won as the wagering choice at odds of 1:50 to 1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “A’Ali” who finished tenth.
Looks like trainer Wesley Ward will have this year’s favorite again - - #14 “Golden Pal” (8-5). His dam banked over $900K, raced and won at The Spa, and was owned by this colt’s current owners. Lots to like but there is an exception. He starts from “the parking lot”. Instead, this wallet opts for jockey Manny Franco’s #7 “Momos” (15-1). He was “nailed late” in a six furlong stake. This race is 110 yards shorter. The picks:
First: #7 “Momos”.
Second: #14 “Golden Pal”.
The wagers: $3 Place #7, then $2 Double 7 w 8/11. Total = $7.
Friday Keeneland Race No. 7. Post time: 3:10 P.M. The Juvenile Turf. An 8 furlong turf race for two year olds. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Structor”, owned by Don Rachel and Jeff Drown., trained by Chad Brown, and won as third choice at 5.30 to 1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Fort Myers” who finished seventh at 23-1.
Escaping Woodbine for the first time is #11 “Gretzky the Great” (8-1), the impressive winner of the Grade I Summer Stakes recently. His morning workouts have been outstanding. Next, Aiden O’Brien’s #9 “Battleground” (6-1) may be the best Euro entered today. He deserves respect here. Finally, both Todd’s #6 “Mutasaabeq” (5-1) and #8 “Outadore” (8-1) must be considered. The latter’s recent stakes win at 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf was very impressive. He could surprise at a price. The picks:
First: #8 “Outadore”
Second: #11 “Gretzky the Great”.
The wager: $2 Win and Place #8. Total = $4.
Friday Keeneland Race No. 8. Post time 3:50 P.M. The Juvenile Filly. An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “British Idiom”, owned by Michael Dubb, et al, trained by Brad Cox. She won as the second choice at odds of 2.70 to 1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Donna Veloce” who finished second as the favorite.
Short field. No pick. No wager.
Friday Keeneland Race No. 9. Post time: 4:30 P.M. The Juvenile Fillies Turf. An 8 furlong turf race for two year old fillies. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Sharing”, owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Gainesway Stable, LLC., trained by H Graham Motion. Won at odds of 13.80 to 1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Albigna” who finished fourth.
Trainer Brad Cox’s #5 “Aunt Pearl” (3-1) should be the wagering favorite at post time. She has been very good. The pick is #2 “Miss Amulet” (12-1), a Group 2 winner at York and a runner-up in a Group 1 at Newmarket. Next, and not without a chance, is Johnny V’s #3 “Alda” (12-1) who finished second in the Natalma at Woodbine. The picks:
First: #2 “Miss Amulet”
Second: #3 “Alda”
Third: #5 “Aunt Pearl”
The wagers: $2 Double #2 with 4/7, then $1 Exacta #2 beating either #3 or #5. Total = $6.
Friday Keeneland Race No. 10. The Juvenile. An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year olds. Purse: $2 Million. Post time: 5:10 P.M.
Last year’s winner: “Storm the Court”, trained by Bob Peter Eurton. He won at 46 to 1 odds, then went 0 for 6 in 2020.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Dennis’ Moment” who was the favorite.
Trainer Steve Asmussen’s #7 “Jackie’s Warrior” (7-5) has not lost yet. He is a “must use” on all exotic tickets. Next, after picking the favorite in last year’s edition of this race, this year’s pick will not be the fav. This year’s pick is #4 “Likeable” (15-1) from Todd Pletcher’s barn. This is a late bloomer who will be a price. The Picks:
First: #4 “Likeable”.
Second: #7 “Jackie’s Warrior”.
The wagers: $2 Place #4, then $1 Exacta Box 4/7, and finally $2 Juvenile/Classic Double 4/7 with 8. Total = $8.
Total for Friday, November 6th = $43.
Breeders’ Cup 2020
Keeneland
Saturday, November 7th
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 1. Post time 10:15 A.M. The Perryville. A six furlong dirt sprint for three year-olds. Purse = $125K.
The wagering public will hammer #1 “Nashville” (4-5) based on those outstanding speed figures. Sure, he is a “must use” in the exotics, but Irad’s #6 “Relentless Dancer” (5-1) is no slouch. Tread lightly. The wager: $1 Exacta Box 1/6 and turn the page. Total = $2.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 2. Post time 10:45 A.M. The Lafayette Stakes. An ungraded 7 furlong dirt sprint. Purse: $150K.
Last year at Santa Anita, this race was called “The Damascus” and there were fewer horses - - maybe 5. For 2020, change the name and Presto! Big Field. Go figure.
Speaking of “no slouch”, #10 “Mind Control” (8-1) fits that description. No, do not expect 8-1 odds against this bunch, but somewhere north of 5-1 odds are certainly acceptable. Johnny V rides “Mind Control”, and he could very well have a riding double with #5 “Miss T Too” in Race No. 3. Next, Joel rides #6 “Sleepy Eyes Todd” (5-1), the winner of the Charles Town Classic. He cost all of $9K in the sales ring, then earned nearly $400K on the track this year. While he will not be on my ticket, congrats to the horse and his owners for keeping the faith. The wager: $2 Win and Place #10, then $2 Double #10 with #5. Total = $6.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 3. Post time 11:20 A.M. The Fort Spring Stakes. A six furlong stake for 3 year old fillies. Purse: $125K.
Chad’s #10 “Motivated Seller” (4-1) starts in the parking lot. She might encounter problems out there. Next, trainer Bill Mott’s #5 “Miss T Too” (5-1) finally put it all together on September 4th. This filly’s a.m. timed workouts show she is interested. The wager: $2 W/P #5, then $2 Double #5 with #9. Total = $6.
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Saturday Keeneland Race No. 4. Post time: 12:02 A.M. The Filly and Mare Sprint. A Grade 1, seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Covfefe ”, trained by Brad Cox, at odds of 3-2. She paid $5.00 to win.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Selcourt”.
Both #1 “Speech” (6-1) and #2 “Gamine” (7-5) were humbled in this year’s Kentucky Oaks. Maybe they are going the wrong way. If so, then #9 “Bells the One” (6-1) becomes a viable option after her last race. The wager: $3 Place #9, then $2 Double #9 with #3. Total = $5.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 5. Post time: 12:39 P.M. The Turf Sprint. A Grade 1, 5 1/2 furlong turf race. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Belvoir Bay”, trained by Peter Miller, at odds of 14 to 1. Last year’s distance was 5 furlongs.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Totally Boss”.
Don’t blink or it will be over! The pick is Irad’s #3 “Imprimis” (4-1) who draws close enough to the hedge to have an advantage. For second, Chad’s #4 “Front Run the Fed” (12-1) should be competitive. He just missed in September.
First: #3 “Imprimis”
Second: #4 “Front Run the Fed”
Third: #7 “Leinster”
The wager: $3 Win and Place #3. Total = $6.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 6. Post time: 1:18 P.M. The Dirt Mile. A Grade 1, 8 furlong dirt race. Purse: $1 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Spun to Run ”, trained by Juan Carlos Guerrero, at 9-1 odds.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Mr. Money”.
The configuration of the track for the mile distance puts horses with an outside post position at a distinct disadvantage. With that - - - and only that - - in mind, the pick is #2 “Sharp Samurai” (15-1) who placed in this year’s Pacific Classic at DelMar - - not an easy task. Sure, this is a value play, but not a pure stab of the program. The wager: $2 place #2, then $2 Double #2 with 6/11. Total = $6.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 7. Post time: 1:57 P.M. The Filly and Mare Turf. A Grade 1, 9 1/2 furlong grass race for fillies and mares. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Iridessa”, trained by Joseph O’Brien and ridden by Wayne Lordan. She won as the fifth choice at odds of 13 to 1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Sistercharlie”.
This wallet intended to “single” the European filly “Tarnawa” in this race but her connections opted for Race No. 11 on today’s card. Next, Chad’s #2 “Sistercharlie” (6-1) seems to have lost a step. His #6 “Rushing Fall” (5-2) has three wins this year and is the deserving favorite. Finally, #11 “Audarya” (12-1) won a Group 1 at Deauville in August. This blogger has a rule - - horses that have run at Deauville get extra scrutiny while horses that have won at Deauville get bet. The picks:
First: #11 “Audarya”
Second: #6 “Rushing Fall”.
The wagers: $2 Double 6/11 with 14, then $3 Win and Place #11. Total = $10.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 8. Post time: 2:36 P.M. The Sprint. A Grade 1, 6 furlong dirt race. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Mitole ”, trained by Steve Asmussen, at odds of 9-5.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Mitole”
George Weaver’s #14 “Vekoma” (3-1) will be closer to 9-5 by post time. If so those post time odds would be generous. Next, Kelly Breen’s #8 “Firenze Fire” (8-1) did win the Vosburgh, but it was on a sealed sloppy track that day. Finally, Steve Asmussen’s #10 “Yaupon” (7-2) did win at the Spa in the slop, then won the Chick Lang on October 1st. However, he will be no match for “Vekoma”. The pick:
First: #14 “Vekoma”.
no other selections.
The wagers: $2 Double #14 with 10/13, then $20 Win #14. Total = $24.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 9. Post time: 3:15 P.M. The Mile. A Grade 1, 8 furlong turf race. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Uni”, trained by Chad Brown, at odds of 7-2.
Last year’s Pick: “Circus Maximus”.
There are no monsters entered this year, making this a wonderful betting race. Let’s start with Chad’s #5 “Digital Age” (8-1) who finally showed true speed in the Old Forester Bourbon. Next, Paulo Lobo’s #11 “Ivar” (4-1) has had a solid year and Brad Cox’s #13 “Factor This” (8-1) has banked $800K this year. Plus last year’s winner #12 “Uni” (5-1) could be peaking at the right time. This blogger’s is voting for the winner of the Fourstardave at the Spa, i.e. #10 “Halladay” (12-1). This colt is regally bred. By post time, his odds should be somewhere north of 12-1. The picks:
First: #10 “Halladay”.
Second: #13 “Factor This”.
Third: #11 “Ivar”.
The wager: $2 Double 10/13 w 10. Total = $4.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 10. Post time: 3:54 P.M. The Distaff. A Grade 1, 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares. Purse: $2 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Blue Prize”, the Argentine mare. who raced four times in Argentina, then 19 times in North America, and did not race in 2020. Trained by Ignacio Correas IV. She won at odds of 11 to 1.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Midnight Bisou”.
For this 2020 Distaff, if the connections of “Swiss Skydiver” choose to run here, the bettor must decide whether to “single” this filly in multi-race wagers, or bet against her. Not an easy choice.
Let’s face it. This 3 year-old filly has an unproven pedigree, and the NY bred “Tiz the Law” also has an unproven pedigree. Yet, both were the best of their generation. Will a lack of pedigree catch up with one or both today?
Trainer Ken McPeek’s #5 “Swiss Skydiver” (2-1) will be formidable. Since she loves to go long, distance is not an issue. This is her race to lose. Next, Brad Cox’s #10 “Monomoy Girl” (8-5) has been lightly raced this year. Let’s face it - - those three races were not a challenge for filly like her. She is here and “Midnight Bisou” is not. Next, the most interesting entrant is Simon Callagan’s #2 “Harvest Moon” (12-1) who will be overlooked in the wagering. She is a late blooming three year old who deserves some respect. Finally, George Weaver’s #7 “Point of Honor” (30-1) lacks speed to compete for top honors, but certainly has the stamina to finish “in the money”.
The picks:
First: #10 “Monomoy Girl” (but in exotic wagers, #5 “Swiss Skydiver” and #10 “Monomoy Girl” on top).
Second: #2 “Harvest Moon”
Third: #7 “Point of Honor”
The wager: $2 Double 5/10 w 3. Total = $4.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 11. Post time: 4:33 P.M. The Turf. A 12 furlong grass race. Purse: $4 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Bricks and Mortar”, trained by Chad Brown, at odds of 9-5.
Last year’s Pick by this blogger: “Bricks and Mortar”.
First, as of ten days out, trainer Chad Brown does not have an entrant for this turf race. That’s rare! Next, “Bricks and Mortar” finished a head in front of #7 “United” (8-1) in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. Now, “United” travels to Keeneland for trainer Richard Mandella to face a better field than last year (other than the winner). Next, this blogger soooo wanted #2 “Magical” (5-2) to come to Santa Anita last year - - but that did not happen. This year, “Magical” has been lightly raced. In her last race, she finished 3rd in the Champions States. No thanks. Next, Aidan O’Brien’s other possible starter is #10 “Mogul” (4-1), the recent winner of the Prix de Paris. However, this one victory has been pretty much “it” for 2020. Next, #3 “Tarnawa” (6-1) is 3-for-3 and recently won the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamps. This 4 year-old is a “must use”. Finally, trainer Bill Mott’s #9 “Channel Maker” (5-1) has only raced twice this year - - both Grade 1 victories. He is the other must use.
The picks:
First: #3 “Tarnawa”
Second: #9 “Channel Maker”
Third: #8 “Red King”.
The Wager: $2 Double 3/9 w 8. Total = $4.
Saturday Keeneland Race No. 12. Post time 5:13 P.M. The Classic. A 10 furlong dirt race. Purse: $6 Million.
Last year’s winner: “Vino Rosso”, trained by Todd Pletcher. He won at 4-1 odds.
Last year’s pick by this blogger: “McKinzie”.
In this 2020 version, trainer Bob Baffert’s #8 “Improbable” (5-2) stands head and shoulders over this field. Odds of 5-2 are very acceptable and anything over 5-2 would be generous. Trifecta wagerers would be wise to consider both #10 “Maximum Security” (7-2) and winner of this year’s Woodward Stakes at the Spa #7 “Global Campaign” (20-1). To wager against “Improbable” is foolhardy. The picks:
First: #8 “Improbable”.
For 2nd and 3rd: #7 and #10 (trifecta underneath).
The wager: $200 Win #8. Total = $200.
Total for Saturday, November 7th = $277.
Total Wagers for two days = $320.
Pandemic Bankroll:
Started July 4, 2020 = $0.00
Status as Saratoga closed: Minus $204.50 (83 for 333).
Wagered Friday, November 6th: $43
Wagered Saturday, November 7th: $277.
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