Breeders’ Cup 2017
November 3 and 4
Del Mar
This is the only posting
for both Friday, November 3rd and Saturday, November 4th.
Fall, 2017 Bankroll
going in to Breeders’ Cup = minus $25.70 (2 for 20)
Friday Del Mar Race No. 1. Post time 11:25 A.M. Pacific. The Damascus.
A seven furlong sprint. Purse =
$200K.
Irad gets the mount on
the speedy #6 “Mr. Hinx” (3-1) who finished only one length behind “Roy H” who
we will see tomorrow in the BC Sprint.
He could be formidable. The
selection here is #5 “Americanize” (6-1) who shows a very nice allowance score
at Santa Anita. Note his ownership
connections. The wager: $2 Double 5 w 9 and turn the page. Total = $2.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 2. Post time 12 Noon Pacific. An 8 ½ furlong turf race run under allowance
conditions. Purse = $75K.
Taking “a flyer” here
with Peter Eurton’s #9 “Cheekaboomboom” (5-1) in this absolute puzzler. The wager: $2 Win #9, then $2 Double 9 w
2. Total = $4.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 3. Post time
12:35 P.M. Pacific. A seven furlong dirt
race with a purse of $75K.
We have not seen Bob
Baffert’s #10 “Dabster” (6-1) for 9 months.
This colt fetched $1 Million in the sales ring. Those 6-1 odds are way too high for this
entrant who shows good a.m. workouts.
Next, trainer McCarthy’s #2 “City of Light” (7-2) will be a deserving
favorite. While he has only had three
lifetime outings, they have been good.
Those recent a.m. workouts are also good. The runner-up could be #11 “Sir Samson” (8-1)
who seems to run better when breaking from an outside post. The wagers:
$2 Double #2 with #8, then $2 straight exacta #2 beating #11, then $1
Pick 3: 2 w 8 w 7. Total = $5.
Top Choice: #2 “City of Light”
2nd Choice: “11
“Sir Samson”.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 4. Post time
1:10 P.M. Pacific. A seven furlong
dirt sprint restricted to state bred two year-old fillies. Purse = $200K.
Sporting two wins on
this surface is #8 “Spiced Perfection” (5-1).
She is as good as any. The
wager: $2 Double 8 w 7, then $1 Pick
3: 8 w 7 w 2/10. Total = $4.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 5. Post time 1:45 P.M. Pacific. The Marathon.
A 14 furlong dirt race with a purse of $200K.
This is a very weak
field for a $200K race. This wallet will
open slightly for #7 “Hard Aces” - - but only slightly. The wager:
$2 Double 7 w 2 and turn the page.
Total = $2.
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Unless otherwise noted,
this is the wagering pattern for Breeders’ Cup Races:
$2 W/P/S on “top
choice”.
$2 Double: “top” and
“second” choice with “Top Choice” in the next race.
Thus, unless otherwise
noted, the total of all wagers in each race is $10. Why?
I’ve had good “doubles” luck in BC races. Why change now?
Friday
Del Mar Race No. 6. The Juvenile
Fillies Turf. An 8 furlong turf race for
two year old fillies. Purse: $1 Million.
Post time: 2:25 P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “New Money Honey”. Owned by e Five Racing Thoroughbreds, trained
by Chad Brown, and ridden by Javier Castellano.
Winning odds: 6.50 to 1.
They’re back for a
second year in a row! It’s Chad, the owners
e Five Racing Thoroughbreds, and the jockey Javier Castellano. Just a different two year-old. This year it’s #11 “Rushing Fall” (7-2) who
has been very impressive. She has been
able to get good position, then accelerate as the field turns for home. Next, owners Magnier, Tabor & Smith have
entered two very capable fillies. First,
#2 “Happily” (9-2) has won four of six lifetime starts and banked $557K. Her stablemate #10 “September” (6-1) is out
of “Peeping Fawn”, a winner of about $800K but in Europe. Both are capable. Total wager = $10.
Top Choice: #2 “Happily”
2nd
Choice: #10 “September”.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 7. The Dirt Mile.
An 8 furlong dirt race.
Purse: $1 Million. Post time:
3:05 P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Tamarkuz”.
Owned by Shadwell Stable, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, and ridden by
Mike Smith. Winning odds: 12-1.
As much as this blogger
likes Chad’s #10 “Practical Joke” (6-1), there is no way to pick him against
this bunch. However, a $0.50 Tri Box
with him is a must. Next, trainer John
Sadler has the home court advantage with #8 “Accelerate” (7-2). This colt’s two recent races were outstanding
and he will be hard to deny. Next,
trainer Bob Baffert’s #6 “Mor Spirit” (3-1) raced good last Spring and in the
Spring of 2016. Not sure if he is a Fall
runner. Next, #3 “Sharp Azteca” (9-2)
lost to “Mor Spirit” last Spring. Since
then he has won two graded stakes but he has not faced much. Still, he is a player. To the standard wager, add a $0.50 Trifecta
Box 3-8-10. Total wagers = $13.
Top Choice: #8 “Accelerate”
2nd
Choice: #3 “Sharp Azteca”.
Friday Del Mar Race No. 8. The
Juvenile Turf. An 8 furlong turf race
for two year olds. Purse: $1 Million.
Post time: 3:50 P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Oscar Performance”. Owned by Amerman Racing, trained by Brian
Lynch, and ridden by Jose Ortiz. Winning
odds: 6.60 to 1.
In a recent interview
with Mark Cusano, trainer Casse liked the chances of #10 “Flameaway”
(20-1). This colt has won on synthetic,
won on mud, and won on the slop. He
continues to overachieve. Next, Jose’s
#2 “Untamed Domain” (8-1) looks to be improving at the right time. We’ll see. Total wager = $10.
Top Choice: #10 “Flameaway”
2nd
Choice: #2 “Untamed Domain”
Friday Del Mar Race No. 9. The
Distaff. A 9 furlong dirt race for
fillies and mares. Purse: $2 Million.
Post time: 4:35 P.M.
Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Beholder”.
Owned by Spendthrift Farm, trained by Richard Mandella, and ridden by
Gary Stevens. Winning odds: 3.30 to 1. “Songbird” was second, “Forever Unbridled” was
a length behind in 3rd, and “Stellar Wind” finished 4th.
This is a highly
competitive race. Last year’s pick #2
“Stellar Wind” (5-2) is undefeated this year and is a deserving favorite. However, she will be under pressure in the
pace scenario by either #5 “Elate” (3-1) or #7 “Paradise Woods” (9-2) or
both. All three can be expected to push
a fast pace which could set this race up for a stalker/closer. The pick is the closer, i.e. #6 “Forever
Unbridled” (4-1). Her dam won the
Kentucky Oaks and the Alabama. Total
wager = $10.
Top Choice: #6 “Forever Unbridled”
2nd
Choice: #2 “Stellar Wind”
Friday Del Mar Race No. 10. Post time 5:17 P.M. Pacific. A Grade 3 turf sprint stake for fillies at 5
furlongs. Purse: $150K.
Trainer Bill Mott
shipped #5 “Vigor” (5-1) with his filly entrant in the Distaff “Elate”. So, was she shipped just to keep “Elate”
company or is she well-meant here? She
has been “an in and outer” but her Saratoga race against “Fire Key” was pretty
good and her a.m. workouts look OK too.
Next - - and speaking of “in and outers”, #10 “Street Surrender” (8-1)
sure fits that description. After those
two quick a.m. workouts at Santa Anita, her connections decided to supplement
her to this grass sprint. Note: There will be a Distaff/Classic special
double wager available today. The
wagers: $2 Win #5, then $1 Exacta Box
5/10. Total = $4.
Top Choice: #5 “Vigor”.
2nd
Choice: #10 “Street Surrender”
Total wagers for Friday,
November 3rd = $66.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 1. Post time 10:10 A.M. Pacific. The Goldikova - - Grade II. An 8 furlong turf stake race for fillies and
mares. Purse $200K.
Just missing in her last
start was #10 “Madame Stripes” (8-1). It
looks like she can compete here. The
wagers: $2 Double #10 with #6, then $1
Pick 3: 10 w 6 w 5/9. Total = $4.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 2. Post time 10:45 A.M. Pacific. A seven furlong dirt sprint restricted to state
bred two year-olds. Purse: $200K.
Kent Desormeaux rode #6 “Bookies
Luck” (7-2) to victory at Del Mar in September.
Why not again? The wager: $2 Double 6 w 5/9. Total = $4.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 3. Post time 11:20 A.M. Pacific. A five furlong turf sprint stake for two
year-olds. Purse: $200K.
Godolphin’s #5 “Sound
and Silence” (8-1) has been racing in Group 3 stakes in France. His unraced dam has not been a terrific
producer so be careful with the grocery money.
Next, trainer Aidan O’Brien has been very successful in Europe this
year. His #9 “Declarationofpeace” (12-1) is regally
bred. This two year-old fetched $2.6
Million in the sales ring when he was only six months old.
Top Choice: #5 “Sound
and Silence”.
2nd
Choice: #9 “Declarationofpeace”.
The wagers: $2 Double 5/9 with 4/1. Total = $8.
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Unless otherwise noted,
this is the wagering pattern for Breeders’ Cup Races:
$2 W/P/S on “top
choice”.
$2 Double: “top” and
“second” choice with “Top Choice” in the next race.
Thus, unless otherwise
noted, the total of all wagers in each race is $10. Why?
I’ve had good “doubles” luck in BC races. Why change now?
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 4. The Juvenile Filly. An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old
fillies. Purse: $2 Million.
Post time: 12:00 P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Champagne Room”. Trained by Peter Eurton and ridden by Mario
Gutierrez. Winning odds: 34-1.
The favorite will
probably be #7 “Moonshine Memories” (7-2) who is undefeated in California. This filly fetched $650K in the sales ring
and it looks like this could be a good investment. Next, jockey Manuel Franco rides #4 “Gio Game”
(15-1) who, while only a maiden winner, is out of the dam “Game for More” who
also dropped “Isotherm”, a winner of over $400K on the track. Finally, Julien rides the probable second
choice #1 “Heavenly Love” (9-2). Those
9-2 odds are too much - - she should be lower by post time. She started from an outside post in that
Grade I race on October 6th and won going away. Total wagers = $10.
Top Choice: #4 “Gio Game”
2nd
Choice: #1 “Heavenly Love”.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 5. The Turf
Sprint. A 5 furlong turf sprint. Purse:
$1 Million. Post time: 12:37 P.M.
Last year’s winner: “Obviously”.
Trained by Philip D’Amato and ridden by Flavian Prat. Winning odds as the favorite: 3.80 to 1. Last year’s distance was 6 ½
furlongs on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita.
Let’s start with #1 “Disco
Partner” (9-2), a terrific six furlong sprinter. Two problems:
(a) today’s distance is only five
furlongs, and (b) he draws the hedge.
So, while I love this guy and would not mind if he did win, the
negatives are too much to select him.
Next, this five furlong distance certainly helps the competitive
fillies, i.e. #3 “Lady Aurelia” (5-2) and #6 “Marsha” (7-2). Finally, this blog’s pick in last year’s BC
Turf Sprint was #12 “Pure Sensation” (10-1).
In five tries this year, he has earned over $300K. That cannot be ignored. Total wagers = $10.
Top Choice: #6 “Marsha”
2nd
Choice: #12 “Pure Sensation”.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 6. The Filly
and Mare Sprint. A 7 furlong
sprint. Purse: $1 Million. Post time:
1:14 P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Finest City”. Owned by Selzer Thoroughbreds, trained by Ian
Kruljac, and ridden by Mike Smith.
Winning odds: 8.70 to 1. Last
year’s distance was 7 furlongs.
All you need to know is
#11 “Unique Bella” (9-5). Those odds are
too high. She will be closer to 7-5 by
post time. Next, even though last year’s
winner #4 “Finest City” (12-1) has only one win in five starts this year, she
has earned $330K. Her recent a.m.
workout shows fitness.
Total wagers = $10.
Top Choice: #11 “Unique Bella”
2nd
Choice: #4 “Finest City”.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 7. The Filly
and Mare Turf. A 9 furlong grass race
for fillies and mares. Purse: $2 Million. Post time:
2:00 P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Queen’s Trust”. Owned by Cheveley Park Stud, trained by Sir
Michael Stoute, and ridden by Lanfranco Dettori. Winning odds:
8-1. Last year’s distance was 10 furlongs.
Going into the first
turn, Jose Ortiz and #1 “War Flag” (12-1) will be pushing the pace. Jose will take this filly as far as she wants
to go. In hot pursuit should be Jose’s
brother Irad and #9 “Lady Eli” (5-2).
Expect Irad to be formidable. Next,
long-shot #2 “Senga” (20-1) will be overlooked by the wagering public due to
her lousy record on soft turf. Eh - -
there is no soft turf at Del Mar.
Add to the standard
wager a $0.50 Trifecta: 2/9 w 2/9 w
6/7/8. Total wagers = $13.
Top Choice: #9 “Lady Eli”
2nd
Choice: #2 “Senga”
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 8. The
Sprint. A 6 furlong dirt race. Purse:
$1.5 Million. Post time: 2:37
P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Drefong”.
Owned by Boama Corporation, trained by Bob Baffert, and ridden by Martin
Garcia. Winning odds: 3.90 to 1.
This blog picked (and
bet) #2 “Drefong” (5-2) to win last year’s BC Sprint. Eh - - so did almost everyone else. Since then he has started only twice - - once
winning The Forego at Saratoga, the other dumping the jockey at Del Mar. His Saratoga win sent everybody a message,
i.e. “I’m back!”. While all of that is
in his favor, the inside post is not where he wants to be for this race.
Next, trainer Peter
Miller’s #8 “Roy H” (7-2) has had a winning 2017 after a losing 2016. He will be formidable. Next, #10 “Imperial Hint” (9-2) is on a five
race unbeaten streak. However, he has
raced against much lesser competition than he will face today. Is he impossible? Yes.
Finally, Joel rides for the other Chad today on #6 “Mind Your Biscuits”
(6-1). While his Forego race was lousy,
he did win in Dubai (albeit in the mud) plus win his return race. Is he “sitting on a race” today? This blogger thinks so.
Total wagers = $10.
Top Choice: #2 “Drefong”
2nd
Choice: #6 “Mind Your Biscuits”.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 9. The
Mile. An 8 furlong turf race. Purse:
$2 Million. Post time: 3:19 P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Tourist”.
Owned by WinStar Farm, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Joel
Rosario. Winning odds: 12.40 to 1.
In a recent interview
with Mark Cusano, trainer Mark Casse said that his #5 “World Approval” (9-2) is doing better and
looking better than he ever has looked in the past. Sure, this blogger will be smiling if this
“lunch bucket” type can win today - - but this is the toughest field he has
ever faced. To his advantage, “World
Approval” wants a target to shoot at - - and there is plenty of speed in here
so that will be no problem.
The pick is a filly
named #12 “Roly Poly” (6-1) who is facing the boys today. She gets a weight break, a good jockey, and
offers wagering value. Whether she can
overcome her outside post is the question.
Bias Alert: Frequent readers of
this blog know about “the Deauville bias”.
Any a horse that ran at Deauville gets a second look. Any horse that won at Deauville gets
bet. Thus, #12 “Roly Poly” gets bet.
Total wagers = $10.
Top Choice: #12 “Roly Poly”
2nd
Choice: #5 “World Approval”.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 10. The
Juvenile. An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for
two year olds. Purse: $2 Million.
Post time: 3:58 P.M. Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Classic Empire”. Owned by John Oxley, trained by Mark Casse,
and ridden by Julien Leparoux. Winning
odds: 4.50 to 1.
Blogger’s Note: It has been many years - - so many that I
cannot remember - - since a winner has been picked for this race. Readers of this blog should take note of this
lack of success in The Juvenile.
Trainer Dale Romans’ #5
“Free Drop Billy” (5-1) is out of the dam Trensa who, in 2013 dropped
“Hawkbill”, a pretty good turfer in both Europe and Canada. “Hawkbill” has earned over $700K. While
he does not appear to be the most talented colt in this race, “Free Drop Billy”
has proven to be a fighter. Next, the
logical favorite will be #11 “Bolt d’Oro” (9-5) who is undefeated. The speed figure in his most recent race is
outstanding for a two year-old. He will
be formidable.
Total wagers = $10.
Top Choice: #5 “Free Drop Billy”
2nd
Choice: #11 “Bolt d’Oro”
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 11. The
Turf. A 12 furlong grass race. Purse:
$4 Million. Post time: either 4:37
P.M. or 4:47 P.M. (Why? I’ve seen two
different times published.)
Last year’s winner: “Highland Reel”, an Irish bred. Owned by Michael Tabor, et al., trained by Aidan
O’Brien, and ridden by Seamus Heffernan.
Winning odds: 3.80 to 1.
Since “Enable” did not
cross the Atlantic for today’s race, Sir Michael Stoute’s #5 “Ulysses” (7-2)
is, without question, the horse to beat.
When this trainer ships here, he means business. As a bettor, horses racing without Lasix are
at a disadvantage. However, this horse
is certainly playable.
Next, last year’s winner
#3 “Highland Reel” (5-1) draws a favorable post position. In his favor is that he gets a positive rider
switch to Ryan Moore and is a stalker.
Add to the standard
wager:
$0.50 Trifecta Box: 1/3/5.
Total wager = $13.
Top Choice: #3 “Highland Reel”.
2nd
Choice: #5 “Ulysses”.
Saturday Del Mar Race No. 12. The
Classic. A 10 furlong dirt race. Purse:
$6 Million. Post time 5:35 P.M.
Pacific.
Last year’s winner: “Arrogate”.
Owned by Juddmonte Farm, trained by Bob Baffert, and ridden by Mike
Smith. Winning odds: 1.70 to 1.
This is not the most
exciting Breeders’ Cup Classic ever to be run.
There are more questions than answers in this race.
Last Spring, it was
widely acknowledged that #1 “Arrogate” (2-1) was the best handicap horse on the
planet - - - and that #5 “Gun Runner” (9-5) was clearly second. Since then, “Arrogate” has taken a step
backward. Meanwhile, “Gun Runner” has
continued to win - - but notice that he has never won at 10 furlongs.
Next, bursting onto the
scene is Travers winner #8 “West Coast” (6-1).
The Travers, of course, was run at 10 furlongs. Since then he won at PARX against three
year-olds plus his a.m. workouts have been outstanding. He loses Mike Smith to “Arrogate” but picks
up Javier.
Next, trainer Bob
Baffert’s #11 “Collected” (6-1) has won four straight, the last being a ten furlong
Grade I win here at Del Mar.
Finally, trainer Bob
Baffert’s #6 “Mubtaahij” (12-1) is a one-paced long distance horse. On September 30th at Santa Anita,
the final 3/8 of a mile was run in nearly 40 seconds while “par” is 36 seconds. Sure, the Santa Anita racing surface was dull
that day - - but still, that was a Grade I race. Frankly, I’ve always considered #6 “Mubtaahij”
as a 12 furlong horse, not a 10 furlong horse.
Maybe he will change my mind today.
Decision time:
Top Choice: “Arrogate”
2nd
Choice: “Mubtaahij”.
The wagers: $1 Exacta Box 1/6, then $0.50 Tri Box: 1/5/6.
Total = $5.
Total for Saturday,
November 4th = $107.
Total Wagers for two
days = $173.
Fall Bankroll going to
Breeders’ Cup = minus $25.70 (2 for 20)
Wagered November 3rd
& 4th: $173. No results yet.
