Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Weather watch:  Friday could be very wet.   Stay tuned for Saturday.     

Writer’s Note:  This wallet will make only one wager on Friday, May 3rd.   As for the Kentucky Derby itself, #17 “Fierceness” (5-2) is the MOTO selection.   The others are going to have to chase him, then catch him - - - a very tall order.    

 

Friday’s Card

  

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:51 P.M. The Kentucky Oaks.  A 9 furlong, Grade I, dirt stake for three year old fillies.   Purse = $1.25 Million.

Let’s start and end with #8 Tarifa.  She has been “the class” of this generation.   The wagering public will have to decide if any of the other entrants have caught up with her.   Until one of them proves it, “Tarifa” is the pick - - even if the track is wet.   

Oaks/Derby Double:  8 with 17 “Fierceness”.  One wager of $20.        

Total Wagers for Friday May 3rd = $20. 

Saturday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 10:30 A.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong sprint for maidens.   Purse = $120,000.

No pick. No wager.

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:01 A.M.  A 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $134,000.  

No pick.  No wager.   

 

 Race No. 3.  Post time 11:31 A.M.  An 8 1/2  furlong dirt race for 3 year olds.   Purse = $127,000.

No pick. No wager.

Race No. 4.  Post time 12:04 P.M.  The Knicks Go.   An 8 furlong dirt race for non-winners of a graded stakes race in 23-24.   Purse = $200,000.  Note:  no race day medication allowed. 

No pick. No wager.  

Race No. 5.  Post time 12:36 P.M.   The Twin Spires Turf Sprint.   A Grade II 5 1/2 furlong turf race.   Purse = $600,000.  Note:  no race day medication allowed. 

Phil D’Amato’s #4 “Motorious” (7-2)  is the most likely winner.   Don’t bother with the others.   The wager:   $5 Win #4.  Total wager = $5.

Race No. 6.  Post time 1:14 P.M.   The Derby City Distaff.  A Grade I, 7 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Box the 7/10 Exacta and visit the cashier.  

No wager here.   

Race No. 7.   Post time 1:56 P.M.    The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile.    A Grade II, 8 furlong turf race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $750,000.

Junior picks up the mount on #1 “Ag Bullet”  (5-1) who is a different animal when closer to the hedge.   Junior knows how to ride on the inside.   The wager:  $3 Win and Place #1.   Total = $6.   

Race No. 8.  Post time 2:56 P.M.   The Pat Day Mile.  A Grade II,  8 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $600,000.

Chad’s #8 “Top Conor” (5-2) fetched $1 Million at a two year-old sale.   Could be something there.   Next, trainer Brad Cox has decided 8 furlongs is enough for #12 “Nash” (3-1) who raised eyebrows (including mine) earlier this year.   Finally, this wallet will open for #7 “Who Dey” (10-1) who closed for second on April 15th.   This cold could be coming around at the right time.   The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #7, then $1 Exacta Box 7/12.  Total = $6.   

Race No. 9.  Post time 3:40 P.M.  The American Turf.  A Grade II, 8 1/2  furlong turf race for three year-olds.   Purse = $600,000.

Jockey William Buick did not come to the U.S. for this race.   Hmm.   Maybe he is skeptical that #5 “Legend of Time” can win here.   Even so, this colt is the pick.   

The wagers:

$2 Double #5 with #2.   

$1 Pick 4:  5 w 2 w 5 w 17.   

Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 4:31 P.M.  The Churchill Downs Stakes.   A Grade I, 7 furlong dirt race.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Irad takes the mount on #2 “Tejano Twist” (4-1) who, while not winning in 2024 yet, has run decently.    He is the tepid pick.   

The wager:   $0.50 Pick 5:  2 with 5 with 17 with 2/7/9 with 12.

Total wager = $1.50.   

Race No.11.  Post time 5:27 P.M.   The Old Forester Turf Classic.  A Grade I, 9 furlong turf race.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Don’t bet the ranch here.   This is a very contentious race with at least 7 possible winners.   

This blogger’s wallet will be ajar for #5 “Program Trading” (9-2), but only slightly.  

The wagers:

$2 Double #5 with #17.  

$1 Pick 3:  5 with 17 with 2/7/9.   

$1 Pick 4:  5 with 17 with 2/7/9 with 12.   

Total wagers = $8.     

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:57 P..M.  The Kentucky Derby.  A Grade I, 10 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $5 million.

The pundits will try to tout several entrants.   They will cite recent workouts, physical size, etc.   Don’t believe the hype.    This is #17 “Fierceness” (5-2) race to lose.  Exacta bettors will be hard pressed to pick who will run in the place position.   My exotic  wager would include both #19 and #11 if I bet an exacta or trifecta.        

The wagers:   

• $2 Double #17 with #7.   
• $1 Pick 3:   #17 with 2/7/9 with 12.   
• If “Tarifa” won the Kentucky Oaks yesterday, no win bet on #17.  If not, then $10 win #17.   
• Total wagers = either $5 or 15.  

Race No. 13.  Post time 8 P.M.  A 7 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $127,000.

Trainer Bill Mott could have the late double on today’s card.  In this race, his #7 “Jefferson Street” (7-2) looks very ‘live’.   Chad’s #9 “General Partner” (2-1) and #2 “Discreet Mischief” (5-2) are the rivals who could win this.   The wager:  $3 Double #7 with #12.   Total wager = $3.    

Race No. 14.  Post time 8:35 P.M.  An 8 furlong dirt race for maiden three year-olds.   Purse = $120,000.

Trainer Bill Mott’s #12 “Timeout” (6-1) missed the break in his first race.    While the outside post is not ideal, this Claiborne colt is hard to ignore.  No wager. 

Total Wagers for Saturday, May 4th = $37.50 or $47.50 (see Derby wagers).   

Total wagers for both Friday and Saturday = $57.50 or $67.50.   

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