Pimlico

Friday and Saturday, May 19-20, 2023

Weather watch: 

 Friday:  Partly sunny and in the 70s.

 Saturday:  Overcast with showers and in the 70s.    

Short Note.

This is the only post for both days.  

Friday’s Card

Race No. 12.  Post time 5:10 P.M.  The Pimlico Special.  A 9 1/2 furlong, Grade III dirt race.  Purse = $250K.

  Last year’s winner:  “First Captain” at 5-1 odds.  Last year’s pick”  “Vindictive” who finished second. 

Both #2 “Rattle N Roll” (9-5) and #5 “Law Professor” (5-2) look good on paper, but trainer Todd Pletcher’s #1 “Kuchar” (10-1) could be sitting on a race.  Those 10-1 odds are too juicy to ignore.  The wager:  $2 Win #1, then $2 double #1 with #7.  Total = $4.  

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Race No. 13.  Post time 5:44 P.M.  The Black-Eyed Susan.  A Grade II, 9 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-old fillies.   Purse = $300K.

  Last year’s winner:  “Interstatedaydream” at 6-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Beguine” who finished second to last at 11-1 odds.  

Let’s start with Bob Baffert’s unbeaten #9 “Faiza” (7-5) who comes east in search of a field she can beat.  This may be that field, but not with my money.  Instead, this wallet will open for the Godolphin/Brad Cox entrant #7 “Comparative” (12-1) who is out of the unraced dam “Collective”.  This handicapper prefers broodmares who have raced, but when Godolphin is involved, that means little.  Godolphin owns top broodmares.  Another factor in selecting “Comparative” is her two recent a.m. timed workouts.  Both the May 6th and May 13th a.m. workouts were outstanding.  The wager:  $3 Win and  Place #7, then $3 Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double #7 with #8 “First Mission”.  Total = $9.  

Total Wagers for Friday May 19th = $13.

 

Pimlico

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Race No. 12.  Post time 4:12 P.M.  The James Murphy.  An ungraded 8  furlong turf stake for three year-olds.   Purse= $100K.

  Last year’s winner: “Joe” at 2-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Riot House” who was scratched.  

This year’s pick is #4 “Top Recruit” (15-1).   Yes, it is this horse’s first start of the year but this is not the strongest field ever assembled either. This Mike Maker trainee is out of “Oh So Bella”, who is out of a top broodmare that produced four $100K earners.  “Top Recruit” is not the worst stab of the program.    The wager:  $2 W/P #4, then $2 Double #4 with #8 “First Mission”. Total = $6.   

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:01 P.M.  The Preakness.  A 9 1/2 furlong, Grade I dirt race restricted to three year-olds.  Purse = $1.5 Million.

Last year’s winner:  “Early Voting” at 6-1.  Last year’s pick: “Epicenter”.  

Thankfully “Mage” is showing up.  He is the only horse from the Derby field to come to Baltimore.   Say “hello” to racing without Lasix.  The pick is #8 “First  Mission” (5-2) who won The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in fine form.   No wager here because I don’t trust him to run back to his Lexington form.    

Total Wagers for Saturday May 20th = $6. 

Total Wagers for both days = $19.

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Kentucky Derby 

Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Weather watch:  Chance of showers.  Not hot.     

Last year’s pick:.

 “Cyberknife”, who finished 18th.  Prior to this race, “Cyberknife” had won the Arkansas Derby in not-so-fast fashion. Last year’s Derby winner?  “Rich Strike” at 80-1.     

This year

   In prior years, this blogger would handicap all races on the card.  This year?  The bankroll will be largely devoted to the winner if the 2023 Arkansas Derby - - - #14 “Angel of Empire” (8-1) - - along with others in exacta wagers. 

  As shown in the wagering below, the likely favorite #15 “Forte” (3-1) will not appear on any ticket.  This wallet cannot support an offspring of “Violence” to run the 10 furlong distance.   His dam “Queen Caroline” was a successful miler as shown by her $400K earnings, mostly on the Maryland circuit.  In summary, if “Forte” wins, I lose.

  Trainer Todd Pletcher’s other two entrants, i.e. #5 “Tapit Trice” (5-1) and #6 “Kingsbarns” (12-1), have better breeding than “Forte”.  In the Louisiana Derby, “Kingsbarns” went to the front and never looked back.  In the Bluegrass Stakes, “Tapit Trice” stayed within range of the leader, then pounced in the late stages.  While nothing in horse racing is certain, no one would be surprised if these two run similar races today.  

  The X Factor today is the Japanese entrant #17 “Derma Sotogake” (10-1).  While he has raced eight times, his last race was in Dubai seven weeks ago.  This son of the hard-knocking “Mind Your Biscuits” could be anything.   

  Finally, the lightly-raced #8 “Mage” is out of the dam “Puca”.  She banked $300K for trainer Bill Mott.  More importantly, the sire of “Mage” is out of the sire “Good Magic”, himself a son of “Curlin’.  Even though this colt has only had three lifetime starts, he could be anything too.   

 

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:57 P.M.  The Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve.  A 10 furlong, Grade I dirt race restricted to 3 year-olds.  Purse = $3 Million.

The move by #14 “Angel of Empire” (8-1) in the Arkansas Derby is most memorable.  The knocks against this colt are his modest breeding (Classic Empire by Armony’s Angel), which was reflected in his sales-ring price ($70,000 @ Sept. ’21 Keeneland yearling sale). 

  As for breeding, on his “plus side”, his maternal grand dam “Seeinsbelievein” dropped “Conquest Big E”, a winner of $435K in 34 starts.  That broodmare is out of “Carson City”, which is a big plus to this blogger. 

  Secondly, #8 “Mage” (15-1) is just too well bred to expect a poor performance.  Yes, this entrant is very lightly raced and only has one maiden win.  The “morning line” odds  on “Mage” at 15-1 is much too low.  His post-time odds should be north of 22-1.  

  The wager will include an exacta “key”, with #14 finishing either first or second to the following:

    -   #5 “Tapit Trice” (5-1) 

• #6 “Kingsbarns” (12-1), 
• #8 “Mage” (15-1) 
• #17 “Derma Sotogake” (10-1)    

The wagers:  

$15 W/P/S #14 “Angel of Empire”

$2  W/P/S #8 “Mage”.   

$1 Exacta #14 beating either #5, #6, #8, or #17. 

 $1 Exacta:  Either #5, #6, #8, or #17 beating #14.   

Total = $59  

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