Breeders’ Cup 2019

Santa Anita

Saturday, November 2nd

Greetings from Hermosa Beach, California - - about 50 minutes from Arcadia - - site of the 2019 Breeders’ Cup.  The weather today (Wednesday) is picture perfect - - sunny skies and temps in the low 70’s.  Unfortunately there are parts of California that are burning.  While we would all like the racing surface to be “fast and firm”, let’s hope and pray for some rain soon.  My friend “Harry” and I will be seated  in “the nose bleed section”, mid-stretch for both days.

This is the second Breeders’ Cup posting for Santa Anita.  A posting for Friday’s races was made earlier on Wednesday.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 1. Post time 10:07 A.M. Pacific.  The Senator Ken Maddy.  A Grade III turf sprint for fillies and mares. Purse $100K.

The betting public will hammer #8 “Girl Knows Best” (9-5), and for good reason.  She has banked $542K on the track.  The others are no where close to $542K.  Next, and the pick, is #4 “Just Grazed Me” (5-2) who shows only three races this year.  It seems she was pointed to this race. The wager:  $2 Double 4 w 4, then $0.50 Pick 5:  4 w 4 w 5/8 w 1/7 w 1.  Total = $4.  

  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 2. Post time 10:42 A.M. Pacific.   The Damascus.  An ungraded 7 furlong dirt sprint.  Purse:  $100K. 

A mere five horse field?   It is hardly worth coming over from the SpringHill Inn and Suites for this race - - but, on that off-chance, here we go.  

First, we must always fear the unknown - - and #5 “Comical Ghost” (8-1) is that unknown.  This owner/trainer combo?  Never heard of this union before - - but it has led to two wins.  Next, the pick is the lightly-raced five year old #4 “Flagstaff” who is super-consistent.  

With such a short field, there is no wager on this race - - merely a “play through”.  Total wagers = $0.     

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 3. Post time 11:17 A.M. Pacific.  The Twilight Derby.  A Grade II, nine furlong turf stake for 3 year olds.   Purse:  $200K. 

With #3 “Nolde” (7-2) plus trainer Bob Baffert’s #9 “Kingly” (5-1) in this field, hopefully the betting public will ignore Johnny V.’s #5 “Succeedandpass” (10-1) who should have no problem negotiating this 9 furlong distance.  He will have to catch Ricardo Santana’s #8 “Neptune’s Storm” (4-1) who will be forwardly placed.  This should be a terrific betting race.  The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #5, then $1 Exacta Box 5/8, then $1 Double 5 w 1/7.  Total = $8.  

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Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 4.   Post time:  11:55 A.M. Pacific. The Filly and Mare Sprint.  A seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse: $1 Million.  

Last year’s winner: “Shamrock Rose”, owned by Conrad Farms, trained by Mark Casse, at odds of 25.90 to 1.

This Filly and Mare Sprint should be a doozie!  On paper, the race looks like a two filly race between Brad Cox’s #1 “Covfefe” (2-1) and “horse for the course” #6 “Bellafina” (6-1).  However, before anointing one of these two, let’s look at recent history:

• 2018 “Shamrock Rose” wins at 26-1,
• 2017 “Bar of Gold” wins at 66-1,
• 2016 “Wavell Avenue” wins at 10-1, and
• 2015 “Judy the Beauty” wins at 3-1.  

Even with this history, it would be very hard seeing “Covfefe” and “Bellafina” both showing up with dull efforts.  Finally, trainer John Sadler’s #7 “Selcourt” (10-1) returned from a six month layoff to run extremely well here at Santa Anita just four weeks ago.  She is rested and will be a handful.   

Top Choice:  #7 “Selcourt”.

For Second:  #1 “Covfefe”. 

For underneath consideration:  #6“Bellafina”.

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #7, then $1 Exacta Box 1/7, then $1 Double 1/7 w 1, and finally $0.50 Pick 4:  1/7 w 1 w 4 w 2/9.  Total = $10. 

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 5.  Post time:  12:33 P.M.   The Turf Sprint.  A 5 furlong  turf race.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Stormy Liberal”, owned by Rockingham Rance and David A. Bemsen LLC, and trained by Peter Miller, at odds of 7 to 1.  Last year’s distance was 5 ½ furlongs.

The 2019 edition of this race leaves much to be desired.  This will be a “play through” race with one selection, i.e. #1 “Totally Boss” (5-1).  This gelding’s last race was both impressive and eight weeks ago.  Those  a.m. workouts at Keeneland are impressive.  The competition is not.  

Top Choice:  #1 “Totally Boss”

There is no second choice here. 

The only wager:  $2 Double #1 w #4.  

Total = $2.  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 6.   Post time:  1:10  P.M. Pacific. The Dirt Mile.  An 8 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “City of Light”, owned by the Warrens, trained by Michael McCarthy, and won as the second wagering choice at 2.60 to 1. 

Hronis Racing’s “Catalina Cruiser” was the favorite in this race last year but ran sixth.  He would have been formidable at this 8 furlong distance but opted to run in “The Sprint” which  has a larger purse.    With this development, the betting public’s choice should be trainer Richard Mandella’s #5 “Omaha Beach” (8-5).  This three year old was on his way to be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby until an injury took him out of the race.  Six months after his last race, he returned to win a six furlong sprint stake in fine fashion.   Finally, Bret Calhoun’s #4 “Mr. Money” (6-1) has improved steadily this year and could get lost in the wagering.  Trifecta players should not ignore #1 “Great Expectations” (12-1) who finished a head behind “Catalina Cruiser” in the Pat O’Brien.  Sure, he has not won in like forever, but his races have not been terrible.  

Top Choice:  #4 “Mr. Money”.

For Second:  #5 “Omaha Beach”.

For underneath consideration:  #1 “Great Expectations”.

The wagers:  $2 W/P/S #4, then $1 Exacta Box 4/5, then $1 Double 4/5 w 2/9.  Total = $12.  

  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 7.  Post time:  1:54 P.M. Pacific. The Filly and Mare Turf.  A 10 furlong grass race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Sistercharlie”, owned by Peter Brant, trained by Chad Brown.  She won as the second choice at odds of 3.30 to 1. Last year’s distance was 11 furlongs.

This year #2 “Sistercharlie” (8-5) almost had some competition in “Magical”  who has faced monsters in Europe all year.   Before “Magical” decided to come across the pond, pundits were saying this would be “a single” on multi-race tickets.  The connections of “Magical” needed to decide whether to opt for the 12 furlong Turf (and face “Bricks and Mortar”) or opt for this distance (and face “Sistercharlie”).  When the pre-entries were drawn, the connections of “Magical” said they preferred to run in “The Turf” against “Bricks and Mortar”.  If “Magical” had chosen this race and with #9 “Villa Marina” (8-1) in the race, it would be a three filly race.  “Villa Marina” closed to win the Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp on Arc day - - not an easy task and she will not have Lasix today either.  Can “Villa Marina” catch “Sistercharlie”?  That is one tall order!  

Top Choice:  “Magical” (who probably will run in The Turf).  

New Top Choice:    #2 “Sistercharlie”.

New Second Choice:  #9  “Villa Marina” but no exacta wager here.   

No third choice. 

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #2, then $1 Pick 6:  2 w 4 w 9/11 w  4 w 9 w 5/8/11, then $1 Pick 3:  2 w 4 w 9/11.  Total = $12.  

  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 8.  Post time: 2:36 P.M. Pacific.   The Sprint.  A 6 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $2 Million.   

Last year’s winner: “Roy H”, owned by Rockingham Rance and David A. Bemsen LLC, and trained by Peter Miller, at odds of 2.70 to 1.

After the August 24th Forego at the Spa, trainer Steve Asmussen took #4 “Mitole” (9-5) directly to Santa Anita for training.  “Mitole” has had five a.m. workouts over the track, the last being on October 22nd, at five furlongs in 58.80.  He will be formidabe but not from Post Position #1 nor #2.    He does not like to stay in the starting gate too long.   If he does draw inside, look for other jockeys to try delaying tactics.  Yes, it is not fair but what is the saying - - “All’s fair in love and war.”  Next, the California wagering public will focus on the hometown favorite #1 “Catalina Cruiser” (4-1) who has been lightly raced this year and is cross-entered in the Dirt Mile.  Frankly, I think that his running style is more suited to the Dirt Mile but this purse is larger.  Finally, and not without a chance, is #10 “Matera Sky” (30-1) from trainer Hideyuki Mori.  This Kentucky bred has banked nearly $2 million in the Far East in 28 races.   

Top Choice:  #4 “Mitole” but not if starting in PP#1 nor PP#2.

For Second:  #1 “Catalina Cruiser”.

For Added Consideration:  #10 “Matera Sky”.

The wagers:  $3 Win and Place #4, then $1 Exacta Box 1/4, then $0.50 Tri Box:   1/4/10, and finally $2 Double #4 with #9.  Total = $15. 

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 9.  Post time:  3:20 P.M. Pacific. The Mile.  An 8 furlong turf race.  Purse:  $2 Million.  

Last year’s winner:  “Expert Eye”, owned by Juddmonte Farms Inc., trained by Sir Michael Stute, at odds of 5.90 to 1. 

As of this writing, “Bricks and Mortar” is cross-entered here and in The Turf at 12 furlongs.  This blogger believes his best chance is in The Turf - - not here.  Next, after setting the course record at the Spa (in the Grade I “Fourstardave” on August 10th), #6  “Got Stormy” (7-2) got nipped by 44-1 shot  #8 “El Tormenta” (12-1) in the September Ricoh Woodbine Mile on a surface labeled “good”.  No question - - “Got Stormy” ran a winning race that day but had to settle for second.  She will be formidable here.  Next, and speaking of females, #11 “Uni” (7-2) is no slouch.  Chad chose to skip last year’s Breeders’ Cup and, instead, opted for easier spots.  She may be a five year old but this will be only her fourth race this year.  On October 5th she set a new course record at Keeneland when she won the Grade 1 First Lady.  To get the victory today, she will have to replicate that Keeneland effort on just four weeks rest.  The wagering selection here is #9  “Circus Maximus” (3-1) from trainer Aidan O’Brien.  This three year old is peaking at the right time and has won in France at Longchamp - - not an easy task. 

Top Choice:  #9 “Circus Maximus”.

For Second:  #11 “Uni”.

For Underneath Consideration:  #6 “Got Stormy”. 

The wagers:  $3 Win and Place and Show #9, then $1 Exacta Box 9/11, then $0.50 Tri Box 6/9/11, then $2 Double 9 w 4, and finally $1 Pick 3:  9/11 w 4 w 9.  Total = $15.  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 10.  Post time:  4:00 P.M.  The Distaff.  A 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million.  

Last year’s winner: “Monomoy Girl”, owned by Michael Dubb et al., trained by Brad Cox.  She won as the favorite at odds of 1.80 to 1. 

Last year in this race, #4 “Midnight Bisou” (6-5) finished third behind “Monomoy Girl”.  Since then, “Midnight Bisou” has won seven straight races.  Is she the best filly ever?  No, but she does not face the most stellar field ever assembled either.  The pundits might have argued that “Elate”, if given the chance, could challenge the favorite.    Eh maybe, but 10 furlongs is a better distance for “Elate”.  Next, exacta wager bettors should look no further than #7 “Secret Spice” (10-1) who is getting better with age.

Top Choice:  #4 “Midnight Bisou”.

For Second:  #4 “Midnight Bisou”.

For Underneath Consideration:  #7 “Secret Spice”.  

The wagers:  $2 Win #4, then $2 Exacta #4 beating #7, then $2 Double #4 w #9.  Total = $6.  

   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 11.  Post time: 4:40 P.M.  The Turf.  A 12 furlong grass race.  Purse:  $4 Million.  

Last year’s winner: “Enable”, a 4 year old filly who came from Europe after winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, owned by Juddmonte Farms Limited, trained by John Gosden.  She won as the favorite at odds of .80 to 1.

Chad Brown’s #9 “Bricks and Mortar” (9-5) has won his last six races, with four of the six being Grade 1’s.   He seems to get better with age.  If the Euro filly “Magical” decided to face him, then the race would have been interesting.  Otherwise, do not bet against.  To be frank, the connections of “Magical” should not challenge “Bricks and Mortar” in spite of the purse difference.  Well, as it turned out, “Magical” stayed home, meaning that I see no value in the wagering.    

Top Choice:  #9 “Bricks and Mortar”.

For Second:  #9 “Bricks and Mortar”.

For underneath?  Pick ‘em. 

The wager:  $2 Double #9 w #5.  Total = $2.  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 12.  Post time 5:44 P.M. Pacific. The Classic.  A 10 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $6 Million.

Last year’s winner:  “Accelerate”, owned by Hronis Racing LLC, trained by John Sadler.  He won as the 2.70 to 1 favorite. 

For the 2019 Classic, let’s face it.  The only “star” is the 2019 three year-old Eclipse Award winner #11 “Code of Honor” (4-1).  No, he is not flashy.  No, his sire line (Noble Mission) does not get the blood boiling.  No, his winning efforts have not been overwhelming.  The fact is that he is the only three year-old who has survived the New York circuit, and for that he and his trainer (Shug) are to be commended.   Next, the deserving favorite is #8 “McKinzie” (3-1) who does not have to bring his A+ race and he could still win.  He will need his A- race however.  Any less than that and he could get beat.  Next, the absolute mystery horse is long-shot #4 “War of Will” (20-1) who had a wonderful Preakness at Pimlico in May, then spent the rest of the year spinning his wheels.  Twenty years ago, a three year-old named “Cat Thief” was spinning his wheels too, then won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Gulfstream Park, then never won a race thereafter.   Is “War of Will” like “Cat Thief”?  Finally, trainer Bill Mott’s #5 “Yoshida” (8-1) has not won this year but has been “coming”.  He finished second to “McKinzie” in the prestigious Whitney Handicap at Saratoga, then finished a closing third in The Woodward.  An “in the money” finish is expected against this field and with Mike Smith riding, one can never count him out. 

Top Choice:  #8 “McKinzie”.

For Second:  #5 “Yoshida”.

For Underneath Consideration:  #11 “Code of Honor”. 

The wagers:  $5 Place #5, then $2 Exacta #8 beating #5, then $1 Trifecta:  8 w 5/11 w 5/11.  Total = $9.  

Total for Saturday, November 2nd = $95. 

Total Wagers for two days = $203.

This blog will resume very infrequently until Tampa Bay Downs opens.  The Winter Bankroll will begin then at $0.00.  

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