Belmont @ Saratoga

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Weather watch:   The early week forecast by NOAA has improved (as of 4 P.M. Thursday).     Maybe some showers.        

Short Note.

No blog post for Sunday’s card of races for NYS Breds.

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track.    

  

Race No. 1.  Post time 10:45 A.M.  An 8 furlong race restricted to horses that have not won twice.    Purse = $110K. 

  Manuel Franco opted to stick with #5 “Quick to Accuse” (7-2).   Why?   Maybe Manny thinks there is ‘more in the tank’.  The wagers:  $2 Win #5, then $2 Double #5 with #6, then $0.50 Pick 5:   5 w 6 w 6 w 4/5 w 3.   Total = $5.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:18 A.M.   An 8 furlong turf race restricted to 3 year-old fillies that have not won twice.    Purse = $110K.

   Chad’s #6 “Spaliday” (3-1) looks to be the best here.  The others do not look threatening.   She should win by 1 1/2 lengths.   The wagers:   $3 Win #6, then $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 4/5.   Total = $5       

Race No. 3.  Post time 11:52 A.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race with a list of restrictions.      Purse = $115K.

   Joel picks up the mount on #6 “Awesome Native” (4-1) who has won four of his nine starts.   This will be his first race in six months, so be cautious.   Note the bullet a.m. timed workout on May 18th.   The wagers:  $2 Win #6, then $1Pick 3:  6 w 4/5 w 3, then $0.50 Pick 5:  6 w 4/5 w 3 w 7 w 5.   Total = $5.

     

Race No. 4.  Post time 12:31 P.M.  The True North.  A 6 1/2 furlong Grade II dirt sprint stake.     Purse = $350K.

Chad’s #4 “Accretive” (5-1) looks poised for a big effort.   This slightly shorter distance should help him get to the wire before “Gun Pilot”.  The wager: $2 Double 4 w 3 and turn the page.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 1:11 P.M.   The Poker.  An 8 furlong, Grade III turf race.  Purse = $350K.

  Chad’s #3 “Carl Spackler” (2-1) knew where the finish line was at Churchill Downs.   This is one smart horse who has won his last 3 races.   The wager:  $2 Win #3, then $1 Pick 3:  3 w 7 w 5.  Total = $3.   

Race No. 6.  Post time 1:51 P.M.   The Suburban.  A 10 furlong, Grade II dirt race.  Purse = $350K.

  Not a stellar group entered here.   Trainer Todd Pletcher’s #7 “Crupi” has OK speed figs when racing without Lasix, so he is the pick.   The wagers:  $1 Pick 3:  7 w 5 w 4.  Total = $1.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 2:36 P.M.  The Ogden Phipps.  A Grade I, 9  furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $500K.

  The MOTO pick is #5 “Idiomatic” (3-5).   No wager here.   

Race No. 8.  Post time 3:22  P.M.  The Woody Stephens.  A 7 furlong, Grade 1 dirt stake for three year-olds.  Purse = $500K. 

  It is very hard to ignore the April 27th race at Oaklawn Park by #4 “Valentine Candy” (6-1).   The best part is that the trainer kept Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons for this race.   Next, let’s congratulate trainer Chad for keeping jockey Eric Cancel aboard #6 “Reasoned Analysis” (15-1).   Chad’s decision shows class.  Next, the main threat to “Valentine Candy” should come from #9 “Nash” (6-1), the beaten favorite in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.   The wagers:   $3 W/P/S #4, then $2 Double #4 with #12.  Total = $11.   

  

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:08 P.M.   The Jaipur.  A Grade I turf sprint.   Purse = $500K.

  Irad’s #8 “Cogburn” (2-1) smoked ‘em at Churchill in May.   He could do it again.  However, William Buick’s #12 “Mischief Magic” (8-1) can win this with a better start.   The wager:  $3 Double #12 with #6.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 4:52 P.M.    The Metropolitan.  A Grade I, 8 furlong dirt stake.    Purse = $1 million

  Trainer Richard Dutrow looks to have #6 “White Abarrio” (6-5) primed for a maximum effort.   He drew a great post for himself too.   The wager:  $5 Met/Bel Double:  #6 with #2.  Total = $5.   

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:36 P.M.    The Manhattan.   A Grade I, 9 1/2 furlong turf stake.     Purse = $1 million.

  Frequent readers of this blog know that entrants who have raced at Deauville (Fr.) receive special attention while entrants who have won at Deauville get selected and bet.     Here we have #6 “Al Riffa” (6-1) who went “on the shelf” last August and emerged with a good effort in late April.   This colt is a ‘must use’ in the exotics.   Most other handicappers will see this as a two-horse race between Chad’s #5 “Program Trading” (5-2) and Godolphin’s #9 “Measured Time” (7-2).   Both are formidable and playable.   In the wagering, I’ll lean toward #9.   The wagers:   $0.50 Pick 4:   5/9 w 2 w 7/12 w 11, then $1 Trifecta 9 w 5/6 w 5/6, and finally $2 W/P/S #6.   Total = $10.    

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:41 P.M.    The Belmont Stakes.  A Grade I, 10 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-olds.   Purse = $2 million

  The betting public will be opening their wallet for #9 “Sierra Leone” (9-5) who had an overland trip in the Kentucky Derby.   This colt did not have a great start on the first Saturday in May.   He will have to do better today.   The pick is #2 “Resilience” (10-1) who has been working at the Spa recently.   This colt’s maternal grand dam is “Tranquility Lake” who banked over $1.6 million on the track.   The wagers:   $15 W/P/S #2, then $1 Pick 3:  2/9 w 7/12 w 11.  Total = $49.   

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:27 P.M.    An 8 1/2  furlong turf race restricted to maiden NYS Bred fillies and mares.    Purse = $85K.

  Drawing a wide post position is #12 “Alittlebitnaughty” (8-1) who is the selection for two reasons.   First, her dam’s sire was “Pulpit” - - - a real plus.   Second, she gets Lasix for the first time.   Next, #7 “Splashy” (6-1) should not be ignored.   Of concern is the slow a.m. timed workouts.  The wager:  $2 Double #12 with #11.   Total = $2.    

Race No. 14.  Post time 8:02 P.M.    A 5 1/2  furlong turf race.    Purse = $110K.

  Rolling down the stretch late should be #11 “Mansa Musa” (5-2).   This three year-old exits stakes company and gets Lasix for the first time.   Rounding out the exacta could be #6 “Yarrow” (5-1) with Joel aboard.   The wagers: $2 Win #11, then $2 Exacta #11 beating #6.   Total = $4.   

Total Wagers for Saturday, June 8 = $105.

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Belmont @ Saratoga

Friday, June 7, 2024

Weather watch:   Iffy again but on Wednesday morning NOAA improved the forecast slightly.        

 

Short Note.

This blogger will not wager on 2 year-old races at this abbreviated meet.  A selection in a 2 year-old race will only be used for a Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 wager.

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track. 

Corrections:  On Wednesday afternoon, this blogger amended the "Weather Watch" and corrected the misspelling of 'fillies' in 3 places.   No changes to selections or wagers were made.    

Friday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 12:20 P.M.   A 7 furlong race for maidens.    Purse = $100K.

   A great betting race!  Todd’s #1 “Trulli Warrior” (7-2) shows an encouraging a.m. timed workout pattern.  He’s the pick.  The wager:  $2 Double #1 with #5, then $1 Pick 3:  1 w 5 w 6.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 12:53 P.M.   A 10 furlong race for older horses.    Purse = $115K.

  Chad’s #5 “Leading Contender” (5-2) lays over this field.   Expect odds closer to 9-5.  The wagers:  $2 Double #5 with #6, then $0.50 Pick 4:  5 w 6 w 11 w 3/10.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 3.  Post time 1:27 P.M.   A 9 furlong turf race restricted to horses that have run in a claiming race where the claiming price was $50,000 or less.  Purse = $65K.

  Trainer Linda Rice’s #6 “Yo Daddy” (5-1) has had 8 weeks to get ready for this effort.  He shows a nice a.m. workout pattern too.   The wager: $2 Win #6 and turn the page.  Total = $2.   

Race No. 4.  Post time 2:01 P.M.   A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to horses that have run in a claiming race where the claiming price was $50,000 or less.  Purse = $65K.

  Sackatoga Stable’s #11 “Leftembehind” (10-1) put in a nice effort in December at this distance.   He is not the worst stab in the world.   The wager:  $2 Double #11 with #10.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 2:36 P.M.  A turf sprint.   Purse = $115K.

  Yes, #3 “Clear the Air” (7-2) has shown speed, but that has been out of state.   Instead, I’ll take one of the locals, i.e. #10 “Mischievous Angel” (4-1).  It is high time that this gelding starts to earn back some of that $600K he fetched in the sales ring.   The wagers:  $2 W/P/S #10, then $1 Pick 3:  10 w 7/11 w 3.   Total = $8.    

Race No. 6.  Post time 3:11 P.M.  An 8 furlong turf race restricted to 3 year-olds. Purse = $110K.

  Christophe’s #6 “Spirit Prince” (7-2)  has been “in the money” in all five starts.   So he is logical - - - right?   Yes, but he has not exactly been a speed demon.   Next, after trying to make #7 “Pirate” (6-1) a dirt horse, trainer Todd tries the grass.   He will have to be quick about it to beat #11 “Sanderson” (12-1) to the wire.   The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 7/11, then $1 Pick 3:  7 w 3 w 1/10.   Total = $4.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 3:46 P.M.   A 6 furlong sprint restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $110K.

  Trainer Bill Mott’s #3 “Roswell” (5-1) shows three solid a.m. workouts at Churchill.   Those workouts indicate a progression and are hard to ignore.   The wagers:  $1 Pick 6:   3 w 10 w 6 w 4 w 1/2 w 9, then $1 Double #3 with 1/10.   Total = $4. 

 

Race No. 8.  Post time 4:21 P.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race restricted to horses that have not won twice.   Purse= $110K.

  On April 26th at Keeneland, #10 “One Giant Leap” (15-1) stumbled at the start from an inside post position and lost all chance under Johnny V.   This entrant did not come to Saratoga just to taste the water.   The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 1/10, then $2 Double #10 with #6, and finally $1 Pick 3:  1/10 with 6 with 4.   Total = $6. 

      

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:55 P.M     The Intercontinental.  An Grade II,  5 1/2  furlong turf stakes race for fillies and mares.  Purse = $200K.

  In this year’s edition of the Intercontinental, the question is “Can any filly build enough of a lead to get to the wire first before #6 “Roses for Debra” (6-5) unleashes her late kick?”  Of her opponents today, I think not.   The wagers:  $0.50 Pick 4: 6 w 4 w 1/2 w 9, then $2 Double 6 w 4.  Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:30 P.M. The Just A Game.  An 8 furlong Grade I turf stake restricted to flies and mares.    Purse = $500K.

   Hmm.  Of the seven entrants, five are trained by Chad Brown.   Wow!  Next, this is a very contentious race.   Usually this blogger is able to throw out several entrants as “impossible”.   Not this time   Now, as for the selection, the pick is #4 “Coppice” (3-1).   This filly is “rounding into form” and will be very competitive.   The wagers:  $2 W/P/S #4, then $5 Just a Game/Belmont Double:  #4 in this race with “Resilience” in the Belmont Stakes, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 1/2 w 9.   Total = $13.   

Race No. 11.  Post time 6:05 P.M. The New York.  A Grade I, 9 1/2 furlong turf stake restricted to fillies and mares.    Purse = $750K.

  Jockey William Buick is here to ride #2 “English Rose” (2-1) for Charles Appleby.   This filly failed to fire in her last race, so Buyer Beware!   Next, Chad’s #1 “McKulick” (10-1) loves the longer distance.  Yes, she won the Grade II Glens Falls here last year, but that was on the inner turf.  I’m picking both fillies.   The  wagers:   $1 Exacta Box 1/2, then $2 Double #1 with #9.  Total = $4.   

 

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:40 P.M. The Acorn.  A Grade I, 9 furlong stake restricted to 3 year-old fillies and mares.    Purse = $500K.

 Five weeks ago #9 “Thorpedo Anna” (8-5) smoked the field in the Kentucky Oaks.   Why would we expect anything different?   Oh - - and those 8-5 odds are a pipe dream.  The wager:   $2 Win #9.   

Total Wagers for Friday, June 7th = $54

 

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Belmont @ Saratoga

Thursday, June 6, 2024

Weather watch:   Prepare to get wet.  There is an 80% chance of showers.  There could also be thunderstorms.   

 

Short Note.

This blogger will not wager on 2 year-old races at this abbreviated meet.  A selection in a 2 year-old race will only be used for a Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 wager.   

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track.   

Thursday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 12:50 P.M.   An 8 1/2  furlong turf race.    Claiming price = $40K.

No pick.   Pass.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 1:22 P.M.   The Tremont.  A 5 1/2 furlong turf race for 2 year-olds.    Purse = $150K.

   Hmm.  Wesley Ward with a 2 year-old runner - - again.   The pick is #7 “Touchy” but no wager here.  

 

Race No. 3.  Post time 1:55 P.M.   A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to NYS Breds.  Purse = $90K.

  The Bromans kept #7 “Land d’Oro” (4-1) for a reason.   The a.m. workout pattern since her April 21st race is solid.   The wager:   $2 W/P/S #7.   Total = $6.   

Race No. 4.  Post time 2:28 P.M.  The Jersey Girl Stakes.  A 6 furlong ungraded stakes race restricted to 3 year-old fillies.   Purse = $150K.

  Two fillies should vie for the lead into the deep stretch, i.e. the likely favorite #5 “Almostgone Rocket” (6-5) and #7 “Moonlit Lady” (12-1).   The edge goes to “Moonlit Lady” because her sire is “Malibu Moon”.   The wagers:   $1 Exacta Box 5/7, then $1 Double 7 w 4/9.   Total = $4.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 3:01 P.M.  A turf sprint restricted to NYS-bred fillies and mares.   Purse = $85K.

   First timer #4 “Summer Whirl” (8-1) shows a good a.m. workout pattern.  She could be “home free” if Johnny V. can get her out of the gate.   Next, #9 “Heart of the Night” (5-1) gets off the rail.   She could be the one.   The wager:   $2 Double 4 w 2, then $1 Exacta Box 4/9.   Total = $4.    

 

Race No. 6.  Post time 3:35 P.M.  A 7 furlong race for maiden fillies and mares. Purse = $100K.

  Both parts of the 1 Entry look tough on paper.   The main question about both is this:  “Where have you been?”   Next, when it comes to a Shug trainee, we all know that Shug will not run a horse if it looks sideways at him.   So #2 “Silvology” (12-1) offers betting value vs. a very suspect field.   The wager:   $1 Double 2 with 4/7.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 4:09 P.M.   An 8 furlong race restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $110K.

Chad’s #7 “Ways and Means” (2-5) did no running five weeks ago.   She may win, but at less than even money?   No thanks.   Next, trainer Todd Pletcher’s #4 “Miz Sense” (8-1) fetched $500K in the sales ring.   She looks “live”.   The wagers:   $3 W/P/S #4, then $0.50 Pick 4:  4/7 w 1/6/7 w 9 w 12   Total = $12.   

 

Race No. 8.  Post time 4:43 P.M.  An 8 1/2 furlong  turf race restricted to NYS Breds.   Purse= $85K.

  Those making Pick 3 wagers will include either #6 or #7 (or both) on their tickets.  Both have good connections but, as we know, connections do not run on the track.   This blogger will also opt for a flat bet wager on #1 “Romantic Charmer” (8-1) who is overdue to exit this condition.   The wagers:  $2 Win and $3 Place #1, then $1 Pick 3:  1/6/7 w 9 w 12.   Total = $8.    

Race No. 9.  Post time 5:17 P.M     The Astoria.  An ungraded 5 1/2  furlong dirt stakes race for 2 year-old fillies.  Purse = $150K.

Trainer Wesley Ward’s #9 “Long Neck Paula” (2-1) was quick in her debut.  She fetched $500K in the sales ring.  Plus, she has Johnny V. in the irons.   What’s not to like?   

The wager:  $2 Double #9 with #12.  Total = $2.    

 

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:50 P.M. The Belmont Gold Cup.  A 16 furlong Grade II turf stake.  Purse = $250K.

Last year’s winner: “Siskany” at nearly 1-1.

  

   It is a good sign that jockey William Buick comes from Europe to ride #12 “Siskany” (1-1) once again.  This favorite faces less opposition than he faced last year when the race was run downstate.  He will be formidable.   No wager here.    

Total Wagers for Thursday, June 6th = $38.

 

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Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Weather watch:  Friday could be very wet.   Stay tuned for Saturday.     

Writer’s Note:  This wallet will make only one wager on Friday, May 3rd.   As for the Kentucky Derby itself, #17 “Fierceness” (5-2) is the MOTO selection.   The others are going to have to chase him, then catch him - - - a very tall order.    

 

Friday’s Card

  

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:51 P.M. The Kentucky Oaks.  A 9 furlong, Grade I, dirt stake for three year old fillies.   Purse = $1.25 Million.

Let’s start and end with #8 Tarifa.  She has been “the class” of this generation.   The wagering public will have to decide if any of the other entrants have caught up with her.   Until one of them proves it, “Tarifa” is the pick - - even if the track is wet.   

Oaks/Derby Double:  8 with 17 “Fierceness”.  One wager of $20.        

Total Wagers for Friday May 3rd = $20. 

Saturday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 10:30 A.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong sprint for maidens.   Purse = $120,000.

No pick. No wager.

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:01 A.M.  A 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $134,000.  

No pick.  No wager.   

 

 Race No. 3.  Post time 11:31 A.M.  An 8 1/2  furlong dirt race for 3 year olds.   Purse = $127,000.

No pick. No wager.

Race No. 4.  Post time 12:04 P.M.  The Knicks Go.   An 8 furlong dirt race for non-winners of a graded stakes race in 23-24.   Purse = $200,000.  Note:  no race day medication allowed. 

No pick. No wager.  

Race No. 5.  Post time 12:36 P.M.   The Twin Spires Turf Sprint.   A Grade II 5 1/2 furlong turf race.   Purse = $600,000.  Note:  no race day medication allowed. 

Phil D’Amato’s #4 “Motorious” (7-2)  is the most likely winner.   Don’t bother with the others.   The wager:   $5 Win #4.  Total wager = $5.

Race No. 6.  Post time 1:14 P.M.   The Derby City Distaff.  A Grade I, 7 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Box the 7/10 Exacta and visit the cashier.  

No wager here.   

Race No. 7.   Post time 1:56 P.M.    The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile.    A Grade II, 8 furlong turf race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $750,000.

Junior picks up the mount on #1 “Ag Bullet”  (5-1) who is a different animal when closer to the hedge.   Junior knows how to ride on the inside.   The wager:  $3 Win and Place #1.   Total = $6.   

Race No. 8.  Post time 2:56 P.M.   The Pat Day Mile.  A Grade II,  8 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $600,000.

Chad’s #8 “Top Conor” (5-2) fetched $1 Million at a two year-old sale.   Could be something there.   Next, trainer Brad Cox has decided 8 furlongs is enough for #12 “Nash” (3-1) who raised eyebrows (including mine) earlier this year.   Finally, this wallet will open for #7 “Who Dey” (10-1) who closed for second on April 15th.   This cold could be coming around at the right time.   The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #7, then $1 Exacta Box 7/12.  Total = $6.   

Race No. 9.  Post time 3:40 P.M.  The American Turf.  A Grade II, 8 1/2  furlong turf race for three year-olds.   Purse = $600,000.

Jockey William Buick did not come to the U.S. for this race.   Hmm.   Maybe he is skeptical that #5 “Legend of Time” can win here.   Even so, this colt is the pick.   

The wagers:

$2 Double #5 with #2.   

$1 Pick 4:  5 w 2 w 5 w 17.   

Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 4:31 P.M.  The Churchill Downs Stakes.   A Grade I, 7 furlong dirt race.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Irad takes the mount on #2 “Tejano Twist” (4-1) who, while not winning in 2024 yet, has run decently.    He is the tepid pick.   

The wager:   $0.50 Pick 5:  2 with 5 with 17 with 2/7/9 with 12.

Total wager = $1.50.   

Race No.11.  Post time 5:27 P.M.   The Old Forester Turf Classic.  A Grade I, 9 furlong turf race.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Don’t bet the ranch here.   This is a very contentious race with at least 7 possible winners.   

This blogger’s wallet will be ajar for #5 “Program Trading” (9-2), but only slightly.  

The wagers:

$2 Double #5 with #17.  

$1 Pick 3:  5 with 17 with 2/7/9.   

$1 Pick 4:  5 with 17 with 2/7/9 with 12.   

Total wagers = $8.     

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:57 P..M.  The Kentucky Derby.  A Grade I, 10 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $5 million.

The pundits will try to tout several entrants.   They will cite recent workouts, physical size, etc.   Don’t believe the hype.    This is #17 “Fierceness” (5-2) race to lose.  Exacta bettors will be hard pressed to pick who will run in the place position.   My exotic  wager would include both #19 and #11 if I bet an exacta or trifecta.        

The wagers:   

• $2 Double #17 with #7.   
• $1 Pick 3:   #17 with 2/7/9 with 12.   
• If “Tarifa” won the Kentucky Oaks yesterday, no win bet on #17.  If not, then $10 win #17.   
• Total wagers = either $5 or 15.  

Race No. 13.  Post time 8 P.M.  A 7 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $127,000.

Trainer Bill Mott could have the late double on today’s card.  In this race, his #7 “Jefferson Street” (7-2) looks very ‘live’.   Chad’s #9 “General Partner” (2-1) and #2 “Discreet Mischief” (5-2) are the rivals who could win this.   The wager:  $3 Double #7 with #12.   Total wager = $3.    

Race No. 14.  Post time 8:35 P.M.  An 8 furlong dirt race for maiden three year-olds.   Purse = $120,000.

Trainer Bill Mott’s #12 “Timeout” (6-1) missed the break in his first race.    While the outside post is not ideal, this Claiborne colt is hard to ignore.  No wager. 

Total Wagers for Saturday, May 4th = $37.50 or $47.50 (see Derby wagers).   

Total wagers for both Friday and Saturday = $57.50 or $67.50.   

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Breeders’ Cup ’23

Bankroll

  

Friday:  Wagered $93.  Collected $41.30.  Refunds $7.50.  

Saturday:  Wagered $234.  Collected $637.80.  No refunds.  

Net profit = $359.60.   

 

 

Breeders’ Cup 2023

Santa Anita

Friday, November 3, 2023

Saturday, November 4, 2023

 

  This post includes both days.  Total wagers equal $327.  Of that amount, $200 is devoted to “White Abarrio” in The Classic.   The remaining $127 can be described as “playing around the edges”.  

  Good luck to all.  

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Friday, November 3rd

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 1. Post time 2:30 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.  The Qatar Golden Mile Stakes. Purse = $150K.  An 8 furlong, ungraded turf stake restricted to two year-olds.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Astronomer” at odds of 30-1.   He was ridden by Ryan Moore and trained by Simon Callaghan. 

Joel’s #5 “Go With Gusto” (5-2) might be one fast filly, but #4 “Ultra Power” (3-1) is out of the dam “Unique Bella” who banked $1.2 million on the track.  Those 3-1 odds are a pipe dream.   The wager:  $2 Double #4 with #11, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 11 w 4, then $0.50 Pick 5:  4 w 5/11 w 4 w 9 w 4.  Total = $4.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 2.   Post time 3:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.   The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California state-bred two year old fillies.  Purse = $175K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Big Switch” at odds of 3.30 to 1.  She was ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. and trained by John Sadler. 

Johnny V. takes the ride on #11 “Crazy Hot” (5-1).   This lass may appreciate the outside post position much more than something in the middle of the pack.  Her dam-side shows stamina but is not overly quick.   Therefore, she will need a hot pace up front.  Don’t look for her early.  Next, the wagering public will open their wallets for jockey Mike Smith’s #5 “Mirinda” (8-5) who was dazzling at Delmar in September.  Notice that she was even money in a field of ten.  The “word was out” on her.  She must be used in the exotics.   The wager:  $2 Win #11, then $2 Double #11 with #4.  Total = $4.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 3.  Post time 3:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Senator Ken Maddy Stakes.  A 6 1/2 furlong downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares.  Purse = $150K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “A G Indy” at odds of 6.70 to 1.  She was ridden by Umberto Rispoli and trained by Doug O’Neill.  

Flavien Prat takes the mount on #4 “Elm Drive” (6-1) who won on this course on May 23rd.   Even though her dam was unraced, she has been an OK producer.  Her maternal grand dam was also a producer.  Now, her last dirt race was lousy - - right?  The fact is that she was not running against the Little Sisters of the Poor  recently.   She looks “live” and gets class relief today.   The wager:  $3 Win and Place #4.   Total = $6.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 4.  Post time 4:15 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Golden State Juvenile Stakes.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California site-bred two year olds.     Purse = $175K.

In 2021 at Del Mar, this race was won by “Finneus” at odds of 4-1.  He was ridden by Joel Rosario and trained by Walter Solis.

He has been off for nearly three months, so maybe the wagering public will forget #9 “Tiger in My Tank” (15-1).   His dam won over $400K sprinting in state-bred races.   At this price, he his hard to ignore.   The wager:  $2 Double #9 w #4, the $1 Pick 3:  9 w 4 w 7/8.  Total = $4.   

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Friday Santa Anita Race No. 5.  Post time: 5:00 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf Sprint.   A 5 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

Last year’s winner: “Mischief Magic”, owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.   This colt won at odds of 6-1. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “The Platinum Queen” who finished 30 lengths behind  at odds of 6-1.

Trainer Michael Appleby’s #4 “Big Evs” (3-1) smoked ‘em at Doncaster in September.  This two year-old has already won over $225K.  He should be formidable.  The wager:  $5 W/P #4, then $2 Double #4 with 7/8.  Total = $14.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 6. Post time 5:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Filly.  An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner:  “Wonder Wheel” at odds of 6-1.  She is owned by D.J. Stable LLC, trained by Norm Casse, and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione.  Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Chop Chop” who finished dead last as the betting favorite. 

The daughter of BC Champ “Beholder” is in this race, i.e. #7 “Tamara” (4-5).   She is a speedball and will be formidable.   She is a “must use” in exotic wagers.   Next, just to her outside is #8 “Esprit Enchant” (20-1) who could be anything - - - and at 20+ to 1, I just can’t leave her off my ticket.  Her dam-side is not shabby.  The wager:  $2 Place #8, then $2 Double 7/8 with 3.   Total = $6.   

 

Friday Santa Anita  Race No. 7.  Post time: 6:20 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Fillies Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year old fillies.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Mediate”, owned by Magnier, et al, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.   She was the 2-1 betting favorite.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Pleasant Passage” who finished second at 6-1 odds.  

Let’s start with a few notes here.  First, a Euro did win this race last year, but this particular race has largely been dominated by North American runners.  Second, to ignore the September 30th race by #6 “Porta Fortuna” (5-1) is stupid.   She has already banked over $400K.   Third, another Euro to watch is #14 “Les Pavots” (8-1) who has won three races in France.  Her post position draw was lousy though.  Next, the pick is not Chad’s #12 “Hard to Justify” (6-1), winner of the Miss Grillo against ten other rivals in New York in October.  Her chances from a wide post position are dim.  Finally, the pick is Rigney Racing’s #3 “Buchu” (6-1) who did not show much at Saratoga.   She moved forward in the Fall and won the Jessamine at Keeneland from an outside post.  Her dam “Flowering Peach” earned about $50K on the track while her maternal grand dam banked over $300K.   She should be formidable.  The wager:  $15 W/P/S #3.   Total = $45.    

    

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 8.  Post time:  7:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.

  The Juvenile.  An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year olds.  Purse = $2 Million

Last year’s winner: “Forte”, owned by Mike Repole and St. Elias Stable, trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.  He was the 5-1 second choice to “Cave Rock” who was the 1-2 favorite.   

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Verifying” who finished 12 lengths behind the winner at 17-1 odds. 

Looking at this 2023 field, I’m expecting a cavalry charge into the first turn, and expecting blistering early fractions.   Thus, I’m looking for “a stalker”, and #4 “Timberlake” (4-1) fits that bill.  His October 27th a.m. timed workout shows fitness and willingness.  The wager:  $2 W/P #4, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 2/8 w 2.  Total = $6.   

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 9.  Post time:  7:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Victoria Road” at 5-1 odds, owned by Magnier, et al, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Silver Knott” who lost by a nose at 8-5.

Trainer Aidan O’Brien won this race last year, and this year he has two formidable contenders:  #2 “River Tiber” (3-1) and #8 “Unquestionable” (4-1).  His other entrant drew an extremely wide post position.   While neither of the top two hail from an accomplished female side of the breeding, they are not that shabby either.   When making horizontal wagers, it would be wise to use both.   The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #2.  Total = $2.   

 

Friday Santa Anita Race No. 10.  Post time 8:10 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   A 6 furlong dirt race.     Purse = $100K.

Trainer Mark Glatt’s #2 “Ghost of Midnight” (4-1) was very competitive on October 8th.   Right back!  The wager:  $2 Win #2.  Total = $2.   

Total for Friday, November 3rd =  $93.

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Breeders’ Cup 2023

Santa Anita

Saturday, November 4th

Saturday Santa Anita  Race No. 1. Post time 1:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.   The Aftercare Alliance.  A Grade II, 13 furlong dirt race run under allowance conditions.  Purse = $250K.

No pick.  Short field.  Pass.

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 2. Post time 1:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Twilight Derby.  A Grade II, 9 furlong turf stake restricted to 3 year-olds.  Purse =  $250K.

Back to the turf for trainer Bob Baffert’s #3 “Reincarnate” (8-1).   He had no success so far, but his dirt success has been marginal.   His very smart connections paid $775K for him at a sale.  Against this bunch, he is a player.   The wager:  $2 Double #3 with #5 and turn the page.  Total = $2.   

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Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 3.   Post time:  2:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Dirt Mile.  A Grade 1,  8 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Cody’s Wish”, owned by Godolphin, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Junior Alvarado.  He was the wagering favorite at 2-1 odds.    Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Laurel River” who was scratched. 

The MOTO wager is #3 “Cody’s Wish” (9-5).   However, if he has lost a step, then trainer Todd Pletcher’s #5 “Charge It” (5-1) is more than capable.    The wager:  $2 Double #5 with #6.  Total = $2.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 4.  Post time:  3:10 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Turf.  A Grade 1, 10 furlong grass race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Tuesday” at 9 1/2 furlongs.  This 3 year-old filly is owned by Westerberg, Magnier, Tabor, and Smith, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.  She won at odds of 4-1.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Nashwa”, the 3-1 favorite who finished 3 lengths behind the winner.

Frequent readers of this blog know that entrants who have run at Deauville (France) get a second look.  However, entrants who have won at Deauville get selected and bet.   Trainer John Gosden’s #6 “Inspiral” (5-2) won at Deauville in August, then won at Newmarket in October.   Old saying:  “When you see a fast train, either get on or get out of the way.”  Oh - - and those 5-2 odds are too low.   Look for about 7-2 by post time.  The wager:  $2 W/P #6, then $1 Pick 3:  6 w 1 w 6.  Total = $5.   

 

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 5.   Post time: 3:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Sprint.  A Grade 1, seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse: $1 Million.  

Last year’s winner: “Goodnight Olive” at odds of 2-1.  She was owned by First Row Partners and Team Hanley,  trained by Chad Brown, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.    Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Frank’s Rockette” who finished 16 lengths behind the winner.

 

Chad’s #1 “Goodnight Olive” (6-5) is still the champ.   Her 2023 races have been good, not great, but still good.   Chad knows how to get them ready.   Oh - - and those 6-5 odds?   No.  She will be closer to 2-1 by post time. The wager:  $2 Double #1 w #6.   Total = $2.     

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 6.  Post time:  4:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Mile.  A Grade 1, 8 furlong turf race.  Purse:  $2 Million.

  

Last year’s winner:  “Modern Games” at odds of 7-5.    He was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby,  and ridden by William Buick.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Modern Games”.

Ouch!  Trainer Charles Appleby’s #14 “Master of the Seas” (7-2) drew an outside post.   If he had an inside post, he would be a logical contender.  From Post Number 14?   Good luck with that.   Next, a more logical choice would be the Japanese invader #10 “Songline” (5-2) who just missed from Post 10 in his most recent start.  Finally, the filly #6 “Mawj” (4-1) from Godolphin will be formidable.   She just might take the lead into the first turn and never look back.   Look out!  The wager:   $2 W/P #6, then  $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 9.  Total = $5.    

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 7.  Post time: 5:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Distaff.  A Grade 1, 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Malathaat” at odds of 3-1.  She is owned by Shadwell Stables., trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by John Velazquez.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Malathaat”.

Trainer Brad Cox’s #4 “Idiomatic” (5-2) has won seven times in eight starts this year.

Trainer Brendan Walsh’s #3 “Pretty Mischievous” (8-1) has won four of six against three year-olds, including the Kentucky Oaks.   However, we are not looking for the best horse.  Instead we are looking for the entrant who is peaking at this time of year, and I think I’ve got one.  Trainer Chad Brown has been protecting #6 “Search Results” (5-1) by running her in races with lesser competition.  In four starts this year, she has banked over $400K, and she is fresh as a daisy.   The fact that Irad Ortiz, Jr. has accepted the ride provides some degree of encouragement.   The wager:  $2 Double #6 with #9.   Total = $2.   

  

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 8.  Post time: 5:50 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf.  A 12 furlong grass race.  Purse:  $4 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Rebel’s Romance” at odds of 6-1.    H was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by James Doyle. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Nations Pride”, the 3-1 favorite who finished a non-threatening fifth.

It is hard to go past #9 “Mostahdaf” (5-2) given that other competition failed to show up.   The odds will be closer to 9-5 by post time.   Finishing the exacta could be jockey Ryan Moore’s #3 “Auguste Rodin” (3-1).  When this colt wants to run, he can be formidable.   The question is will he want to run after a 5,000 mile journey?   The wager:  $10 Double #9 with #3.   Total = $10.   

   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 9.  Post time 6:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Classic.  A 10 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $6 Million.

Last year’s winner:  The undefeated “Flightline” at 2-5 odds.  He was owned by multiple owners, trained by John Sadler, and ridden by Flavien Prat.  Last year’s pick by this blogger:  “Flightline”.

Welcome to the most contentious BC Classic in a few years.   Any handicapper could get lost in all of the statistics.   Do we need to do that?   I don’t think so.   

In the recent past, when we saw both “Arrogate” and “Flightline” before their BC wins, they were both awesome from a visual standpoint.   As we constructed our tickets, we just kept thinking about those visually impressive races.   Well, in my humble opinion, the same thing happened in 2023, and the race was The Whitney at Saratoga where #3 “White Abarrio” (4-1) won by six lengths.   After the race, his trainer said “We know what he wants to do.  He has told us.  He wants lots of time between races.”   

  Since The Whitney, I just have not seen any other horse who was that impressive.   Therefore, “White Abarrio” is the pick, and I will not be shy.   The wager:  $100 W/P #3.  Total = $200.     

   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 10.  Post time:  7:25 P.M.   Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf Sprint.  A Grade 1, 5  furlong  turf race.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Caravel”, a five year-old mare.  She is owned by Qatar Racing, Madaket, and Detampel, trained by Brad Cox, and ride by Tyler Gaffalione  at odds of 43-1.  Last year’s distance was 5 1/2 furlongs. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Highfield Princess” who finished 4th at 3-1 odds.

Both #5 “Live in the Dream” (9-2) and #6 “Gear Jockey” (12-1) lit up the tote board this year.  Also, trainer Michael Trombetta’s #12 “Arzak” (6-1) did it twice.   He did it without Lasix at Keeneland vs. eleven other entrants.   He is “the pick”.    The wager:  $2 W/P #12.  Total = $4.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 11.  Post time: 8:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Sprint.  A Grade 1, 6 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $2 Million.  

 

Last year’s winner: “Elite Power”, owned by Juddmonte, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.,  at odds of 5-1.

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Aloha West” at 13-1.  

This is a most competitive race, and if you pick the winner, you will get paid.   Trainer Bill Mott’s #8 “Elite Power” (9-5) will be closer to 5-2 when they spring the latch.   His connections decided he would need 3 months to get ready for this test.  As for who will finish second, pick ‘em.  The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #8.   

Saturday Santa Anita Race No. 12. Post time 8:30 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   A 6 1/2 furlong downhill turf race for fillies and mares.   Purse:  $100K.

Trainer Mark Casse must have had space available on the plane for #6 “Woodbine Way” (5-1).  No thanks.  Instead, #8 “Real Fire” (6-1) has shown improvement in her last two starts plus shows a rather quick a.m. timed workout on October 20th.  No wager.   

 

Total for Saturday, November 4th = $234.  

Total Wagers for two days = $327.  

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Getting Ready for  BC 2023

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

Posting Plans

 

   First, I regret skipping Saratoga’s 2023 meet.  I was able to watch all races on TV here in the Albany area, but was unable to do the research needed to make any logical wagers.   As luck would have it, the weather did not cooperate either.  

  Since Labor Day, stamina has improved tenfold and I have been following the sport with great interest. 

  Only one posting for both days will be made on Thursday, November 2nd before 12 Noon.   

The Handicapping

  Veterans of  Breeders’ Cup wagering know there is only one way to handicap.  We are not looking for the best horse to cash a ticket.  Nope.   We are selecting horses trending upward at this time of the year.  

  And now for a little history.  

  In a taped interview for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, legendary trainer H. Allen Jerkens discussed “Sky Beauty”, his wonderful filly who banked $1.2 million on the track from 1992-95.   He said she was never any good in the Fall, and he tried everything with her but nothing worked.  She just would not be effective in October.     On the other hand, a New York bred gelding named “Evening Attire” was just the opposite.   When the first warm day of Spring happened, he was done for 5 months.  Then, when the first cold day of September happened, “Evening Attire” would put himself into training on the farm.  He would run all day in the field and kick and scream until he was taken to a race track.   

  No, “Evening Attire” was not Breeders’ Cup material.   When the gate opened, he would drop back in the field.  You almost needed a search warrant to find him, until the field rounded the far turn.  Then “Evening Attire” would unleash his finishing kick, and usually cash a check.  

The Sources

   As the BC races approach, I like to read “Blood Horse” and “Horse Racing Nation”.  Both are .coms and both are free.   Once in a while, the reader can glean a trend or two from these outlets.   I also use pedigreequery.com to look at pedigrees.   My friend “Spongie” uses clocker reports available from DRF.   He is looking for trends too. 

OK - - that’s enough for now.  Thanks to all who sent notes of encouragement, especially Tom from Wisconsin and from my friends (whom I have never met) from Panama.   See you on November 2nd.     

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