Belmont @ Saratoga

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Weather watch:   The early week forecast by NOAA has improved (as of 4 P.M. Thursday).     Maybe some showers.        

Short Note.

No blog post for Sunday’s card of races for NYS Breds.

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track.    

  

Race No. 1.  Post time 10:45 A.M.  An 8 furlong race restricted to horses that have not won twice.    Purse = $110K. 

  Manuel Franco opted to stick with #5 “Quick to Accuse” (7-2).   Why?   Maybe Manny thinks there is ‘more in the tank’.  The wagers:  $2 Win #5, then $2 Double #5 with #6, then $0.50 Pick 5:   5 w 6 w 6 w 4/5 w 3.   Total = $5.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:18 A.M.   An 8 furlong turf race restricted to 3 year-old fillies that have not won twice.    Purse = $110K.

   Chad’s #6 “Spaliday” (3-1) looks to be the best here.  The others do not look threatening.   She should win by 1 1/2 lengths.   The wagers:   $3 Win #6, then $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 4/5.   Total = $5       

Race No. 3.  Post time 11:52 A.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race with a list of restrictions.      Purse = $115K.

   Joel picks up the mount on #6 “Awesome Native” (4-1) who has won four of his nine starts.   This will be his first race in six months, so be cautious.   Note the bullet a.m. timed workout on May 18th.   The wagers:  $2 Win #6, then $1Pick 3:  6 w 4/5 w 3, then $0.50 Pick 5:  6 w 4/5 w 3 w 7 w 5.   Total = $5.

     

Race No. 4.  Post time 12:31 P.M.  The True North.  A 6 1/2 furlong Grade II dirt sprint stake.     Purse = $350K.

Chad’s #4 “Accretive” (5-1) looks poised for a big effort.   This slightly shorter distance should help him get to the wire before “Gun Pilot”.  The wager: $2 Double 4 w 3 and turn the page.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 1:11 P.M.   The Poker.  An 8 furlong, Grade III turf race.  Purse = $350K.

  Chad’s #3 “Carl Spackler” (2-1) knew where the finish line was at Churchill Downs.   This is one smart horse who has won his last 3 races.   The wager:  $2 Win #3, then $1 Pick 3:  3 w 7 w 5.  Total = $3.   

Race No. 6.  Post time 1:51 P.M.   The Suburban.  A 10 furlong, Grade II dirt race.  Purse = $350K.

  Not a stellar group entered here.   Trainer Todd Pletcher’s #7 “Crupi” has OK speed figs when racing without Lasix, so he is the pick.   The wagers:  $1 Pick 3:  7 w 5 w 4.  Total = $1.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 2:36 P.M.  The Ogden Phipps.  A Grade I, 9  furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $500K.

  The MOTO pick is #5 “Idiomatic” (3-5).   No wager here.   

Race No. 8.  Post time 3:22  P.M.  The Woody Stephens.  A 7 furlong, Grade 1 dirt stake for three year-olds.  Purse = $500K. 

  It is very hard to ignore the April 27th race at Oaklawn Park by #4 “Valentine Candy” (6-1).   The best part is that the trainer kept Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons for this race.   Next, let’s congratulate trainer Chad for keeping jockey Eric Cancel aboard #6 “Reasoned Analysis” (15-1).   Chad’s decision shows class.  Next, the main threat to “Valentine Candy” should come from #9 “Nash” (6-1), the beaten favorite in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.   The wagers:   $3 W/P/S #4, then $2 Double #4 with #12.  Total = $11.   

  

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:08 P.M.   The Jaipur.  A Grade I turf sprint.   Purse = $500K.

  Irad’s #8 “Cogburn” (2-1) smoked ‘em at Churchill in May.   He could do it again.  However, William Buick’s #12 “Mischief Magic” (8-1) can win this with a better start.   The wager:  $3 Double #12 with #6.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 4:52 P.M.    The Metropolitan.  A Grade I, 8 furlong dirt stake.    Purse = $1 million

  Trainer Richard Dutrow looks to have #6 “White Abarrio” (6-5) primed for a maximum effort.   He drew a great post for himself too.   The wager:  $5 Met/Bel Double:  #6 with #2.  Total = $5.   

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:36 P.M.    The Manhattan.   A Grade I, 9 1/2 furlong turf stake.     Purse = $1 million.

  Frequent readers of this blog know that entrants who have raced at Deauville (Fr.) receive special attention while entrants who have won at Deauville get selected and bet.     Here we have #6 “Al Riffa” (6-1) who went “on the shelf” last August and emerged with a good effort in late April.   This colt is a ‘must use’ in the exotics.   Most other handicappers will see this as a two-horse race between Chad’s #5 “Program Trading” (5-2) and Godolphin’s #9 “Measured Time” (7-2).   Both are formidable and playable.   In the wagering, I’ll lean toward #9.   The wagers:   $0.50 Pick 4:   5/9 w 2 w 7/12 w 11, then $1 Trifecta 9 w 5/6 w 5/6, and finally $2 W/P/S #6.   Total = $10.    

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:41 P.M.    The Belmont Stakes.  A Grade I, 10 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-olds.   Purse = $2 million

  The betting public will be opening their wallet for #9 “Sierra Leone” (9-5) who had an overland trip in the Kentucky Derby.   This colt did not have a great start on the first Saturday in May.   He will have to do better today.   The pick is #2 “Resilience” (10-1) who has been working at the Spa recently.   This colt’s maternal grand dam is “Tranquility Lake” who banked over $1.6 million on the track.   The wagers:   $15 W/P/S #2, then $1 Pick 3:  2/9 w 7/12 w 11.  Total = $49.   

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:27 P.M.    An 8 1/2  furlong turf race restricted to maiden NYS Bred fillies and mares.    Purse = $85K.

  Drawing a wide post position is #12 “Alittlebitnaughty” (8-1) who is the selection for two reasons.   First, her dam’s sire was “Pulpit” - - - a real plus.   Second, she gets Lasix for the first time.   Next, #7 “Splashy” (6-1) should not be ignored.   Of concern is the slow a.m. timed workouts.  The wager:  $2 Double #12 with #11.   Total = $2.    

Race No. 14.  Post time 8:02 P.M.    A 5 1/2  furlong turf race.    Purse = $110K.

  Rolling down the stretch late should be #11 “Mansa Musa” (5-2).   This three year-old exits stakes company and gets Lasix for the first time.   Rounding out the exacta could be #6 “Yarrow” (5-1) with Joel aboard.   The wagers: $2 Win #11, then $2 Exacta #11 beating #6.   Total = $4.   

Total Wagers for Saturday, June 8 = $105.

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