Belmont @ Saratoga

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Weather watch:   The early week forecast by NOAA has improved (as of 4 P.M. Thursday).     Maybe some showers.        

Short Note.

No blog post for Sunday’s card of races for NYS Breds.

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track.    

  

Race No. 1.  Post time 10:45 A.M.  An 8 furlong race restricted to horses that have not won twice.    Purse = $110K. 

  Manuel Franco opted to stick with #5 “Quick to Accuse” (7-2).   Why?   Maybe Manny thinks there is ‘more in the tank’.  The wagers:  $2 Win #5, then $2 Double #5 with #6, then $0.50 Pick 5:   5 w 6 w 6 w 4/5 w 3.   Total = $5.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:18 A.M.   An 8 furlong turf race restricted to 3 year-old fillies that have not won twice.    Purse = $110K.

   Chad’s #6 “Spaliday” (3-1) looks to be the best here.  The others do not look threatening.   She should win by 1 1/2 lengths.   The wagers:   $3 Win #6, then $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 4/5.   Total = $5       

Race No. 3.  Post time 11:52 A.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race with a list of restrictions.      Purse = $115K.

   Joel picks up the mount on #6 “Awesome Native” (4-1) who has won four of his nine starts.   This will be his first race in six months, so be cautious.   Note the bullet a.m. timed workout on May 18th.   The wagers:  $2 Win #6, then $1Pick 3:  6 w 4/5 w 3, then $0.50 Pick 5:  6 w 4/5 w 3 w 7 w 5.   Total = $5.

     

Race No. 4.  Post time 12:31 P.M.  The True North.  A 6 1/2 furlong Grade II dirt sprint stake.     Purse = $350K.

Chad’s #4 “Accretive” (5-1) looks poised for a big effort.   This slightly shorter distance should help him get to the wire before “Gun Pilot”.  The wager: $2 Double 4 w 3 and turn the page.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 1:11 P.M.   The Poker.  An 8 furlong, Grade III turf race.  Purse = $350K.

  Chad’s #3 “Carl Spackler” (2-1) knew where the finish line was at Churchill Downs.   This is one smart horse who has won his last 3 races.   The wager:  $2 Win #3, then $1 Pick 3:  3 w 7 w 5.  Total = $3.   

Race No. 6.  Post time 1:51 P.M.   The Suburban.  A 10 furlong, Grade II dirt race.  Purse = $350K.

  Not a stellar group entered here.   Trainer Todd Pletcher’s #7 “Crupi” has OK speed figs when racing without Lasix, so he is the pick.   The wagers:  $1 Pick 3:  7 w 5 w 4.  Total = $1.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 2:36 P.M.  The Ogden Phipps.  A Grade I, 9  furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $500K.

  The MOTO pick is #5 “Idiomatic” (3-5).   No wager here.   

Race No. 8.  Post time 3:22  P.M.  The Woody Stephens.  A 7 furlong, Grade 1 dirt stake for three year-olds.  Purse = $500K. 

  It is very hard to ignore the April 27th race at Oaklawn Park by #4 “Valentine Candy” (6-1).   The best part is that the trainer kept Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons for this race.   Next, let’s congratulate trainer Chad for keeping jockey Eric Cancel aboard #6 “Reasoned Analysis” (15-1).   Chad’s decision shows class.  Next, the main threat to “Valentine Candy” should come from #9 “Nash” (6-1), the beaten favorite in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.   The wagers:   $3 W/P/S #4, then $2 Double #4 with #12.  Total = $11.   

  

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:08 P.M.   The Jaipur.  A Grade I turf sprint.   Purse = $500K.

  Irad’s #8 “Cogburn” (2-1) smoked ‘em at Churchill in May.   He could do it again.  However, William Buick’s #12 “Mischief Magic” (8-1) can win this with a better start.   The wager:  $3 Double #12 with #6.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 4:52 P.M.    The Metropolitan.  A Grade I, 8 furlong dirt stake.    Purse = $1 million

  Trainer Richard Dutrow looks to have #6 “White Abarrio” (6-5) primed for a maximum effort.   He drew a great post for himself too.   The wager:  $5 Met/Bel Double:  #6 with #2.  Total = $5.   

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:36 P.M.    The Manhattan.   A Grade I, 9 1/2 furlong turf stake.     Purse = $1 million.

  Frequent readers of this blog know that entrants who have raced at Deauville (Fr.) receive special attention while entrants who have won at Deauville get selected and bet.     Here we have #6 “Al Riffa” (6-1) who went “on the shelf” last August and emerged with a good effort in late April.   This colt is a ‘must use’ in the exotics.   Most other handicappers will see this as a two-horse race between Chad’s #5 “Program Trading” (5-2) and Godolphin’s #9 “Measured Time” (7-2).   Both are formidable and playable.   In the wagering, I’ll lean toward #9.   The wagers:   $0.50 Pick 4:   5/9 w 2 w 7/12 w 11, then $1 Trifecta 9 w 5/6 w 5/6, and finally $2 W/P/S #6.   Total = $10.    

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:41 P.M.    The Belmont Stakes.  A Grade I, 10 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-olds.   Purse = $2 million

  The betting public will be opening their wallet for #9 “Sierra Leone” (9-5) who had an overland trip in the Kentucky Derby.   This colt did not have a great start on the first Saturday in May.   He will have to do better today.   The pick is #2 “Resilience” (10-1) who has been working at the Spa recently.   This colt’s maternal grand dam is “Tranquility Lake” who banked over $1.6 million on the track.   The wagers:   $15 W/P/S #2, then $1 Pick 3:  2/9 w 7/12 w 11.  Total = $49.   

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:27 P.M.    An 8 1/2  furlong turf race restricted to maiden NYS Bred fillies and mares.    Purse = $85K.

  Drawing a wide post position is #12 “Alittlebitnaughty” (8-1) who is the selection for two reasons.   First, her dam’s sire was “Pulpit” - - - a real plus.   Second, she gets Lasix for the first time.   Next, #7 “Splashy” (6-1) should not be ignored.   Of concern is the slow a.m. timed workouts.  The wager:  $2 Double #12 with #11.   Total = $2.    

Race No. 14.  Post time 8:02 P.M.    A 5 1/2  furlong turf race.    Purse = $110K.

  Rolling down the stretch late should be #11 “Mansa Musa” (5-2).   This three year-old exits stakes company and gets Lasix for the first time.   Rounding out the exacta could be #6 “Yarrow” (5-1) with Joel aboard.   The wagers: $2 Win #11, then $2 Exacta #11 beating #6.   Total = $4.   

Total Wagers for Saturday, June 8 = $105.

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Belmont @ Saratoga

Friday, June 7, 2024

Weather watch:   Iffy again but on Wednesday morning NOAA improved the forecast slightly.        

 

Short Note.

This blogger will not wager on 2 year-old races at this abbreviated meet.  A selection in a 2 year-old race will only be used for a Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 wager.

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track. 

Corrections:  On Wednesday afternoon, this blogger amended the "Weather Watch" and corrected the misspelling of 'fillies' in 3 places.   No changes to selections or wagers were made.    

Friday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 12:20 P.M.   A 7 furlong race for maidens.    Purse = $100K.

   A great betting race!  Todd’s #1 “Trulli Warrior” (7-2) shows an encouraging a.m. timed workout pattern.  He’s the pick.  The wager:  $2 Double #1 with #5, then $1 Pick 3:  1 w 5 w 6.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 12:53 P.M.   A 10 furlong race for older horses.    Purse = $115K.

  Chad’s #5 “Leading Contender” (5-2) lays over this field.   Expect odds closer to 9-5.  The wagers:  $2 Double #5 with #6, then $0.50 Pick 4:  5 w 6 w 11 w 3/10.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 3.  Post time 1:27 P.M.   A 9 furlong turf race restricted to horses that have run in a claiming race where the claiming price was $50,000 or less.  Purse = $65K.

  Trainer Linda Rice’s #6 “Yo Daddy” (5-1) has had 8 weeks to get ready for this effort.  He shows a nice a.m. workout pattern too.   The wager: $2 Win #6 and turn the page.  Total = $2.   

Race No. 4.  Post time 2:01 P.M.   A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to horses that have run in a claiming race where the claiming price was $50,000 or less.  Purse = $65K.

  Sackatoga Stable’s #11 “Leftembehind” (10-1) put in a nice effort in December at this distance.   He is not the worst stab in the world.   The wager:  $2 Double #11 with #10.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 2:36 P.M.  A turf sprint.   Purse = $115K.

  Yes, #3 “Clear the Air” (7-2) has shown speed, but that has been out of state.   Instead, I’ll take one of the locals, i.e. #10 “Mischievous Angel” (4-1).  It is high time that this gelding starts to earn back some of that $600K he fetched in the sales ring.   The wagers:  $2 W/P/S #10, then $1 Pick 3:  10 w 7/11 w 3.   Total = $8.    

Race No. 6.  Post time 3:11 P.M.  An 8 furlong turf race restricted to 3 year-olds. Purse = $110K.

  Christophe’s #6 “Spirit Prince” (7-2)  has been “in the money” in all five starts.   So he is logical - - - right?   Yes, but he has not exactly been a speed demon.   Next, after trying to make #7 “Pirate” (6-1) a dirt horse, trainer Todd tries the grass.   He will have to be quick about it to beat #11 “Sanderson” (12-1) to the wire.   The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 7/11, then $1 Pick 3:  7 w 3 w 1/10.   Total = $4.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 3:46 P.M.   A 6 furlong sprint restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $110K.

  Trainer Bill Mott’s #3 “Roswell” (5-1) shows three solid a.m. workouts at Churchill.   Those workouts indicate a progression and are hard to ignore.   The wagers:  $1 Pick 6:   3 w 10 w 6 w 4 w 1/2 w 9, then $1 Double #3 with 1/10.   Total = $4. 

 

Race No. 8.  Post time 4:21 P.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race restricted to horses that have not won twice.   Purse= $110K.

  On April 26th at Keeneland, #10 “One Giant Leap” (15-1) stumbled at the start from an inside post position and lost all chance under Johnny V.   This entrant did not come to Saratoga just to taste the water.   The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 1/10, then $2 Double #10 with #6, and finally $1 Pick 3:  1/10 with 6 with 4.   Total = $6. 

      

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:55 P.M     The Intercontinental.  An Grade II,  5 1/2  furlong turf stakes race for fillies and mares.  Purse = $200K.

  In this year’s edition of the Intercontinental, the question is “Can any filly build enough of a lead to get to the wire first before #6 “Roses for Debra” (6-5) unleashes her late kick?”  Of her opponents today, I think not.   The wagers:  $0.50 Pick 4: 6 w 4 w 1/2 w 9, then $2 Double 6 w 4.  Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:30 P.M. The Just A Game.  An 8 furlong Grade I turf stake restricted to flies and mares.    Purse = $500K.

   Hmm.  Of the seven entrants, five are trained by Chad Brown.   Wow!  Next, this is a very contentious race.   Usually this blogger is able to throw out several entrants as “impossible”.   Not this time   Now, as for the selection, the pick is #4 “Coppice” (3-1).   This filly is “rounding into form” and will be very competitive.   The wagers:  $2 W/P/S #4, then $5 Just a Game/Belmont Double:  #4 in this race with “Resilience” in the Belmont Stakes, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 1/2 w 9.   Total = $13.   

Race No. 11.  Post time 6:05 P.M. The New York.  A Grade I, 9 1/2 furlong turf stake restricted to fillies and mares.    Purse = $750K.

  Jockey William Buick is here to ride #2 “English Rose” (2-1) for Charles Appleby.   This filly failed to fire in her last race, so Buyer Beware!   Next, Chad’s #1 “McKulick” (10-1) loves the longer distance.  Yes, she won the Grade II Glens Falls here last year, but that was on the inner turf.  I’m picking both fillies.   The  wagers:   $1 Exacta Box 1/2, then $2 Double #1 with #9.  Total = $4.   

 

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:40 P.M. The Acorn.  A Grade I, 9 furlong stake restricted to 3 year-old fillies and mares.    Purse = $500K.

 Five weeks ago #9 “Thorpedo Anna” (8-5) smoked the field in the Kentucky Oaks.   Why would we expect anything different?   Oh - - and those 8-5 odds are a pipe dream.  The wager:   $2 Win #9.   

Total Wagers for Friday, June 7th = $54

 

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Belmont @ Saratoga

Thursday, June 6, 2024

Weather watch:   Prepare to get wet.  There is an 80% chance of showers.  There could also be thunderstorms.   

 

Short Note.

This blogger will not wager on 2 year-old races at this abbreviated meet.  A selection in a 2 year-old race will only be used for a Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 wager.   

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track.   

Thursday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 12:50 P.M.   An 8 1/2  furlong turf race.    Claiming price = $40K.

No pick.   Pass.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 1:22 P.M.   The Tremont.  A 5 1/2 furlong turf race for 2 year-olds.    Purse = $150K.

   Hmm.  Wesley Ward with a 2 year-old runner - - again.   The pick is #7 “Touchy” but no wager here.  

 

Race No. 3.  Post time 1:55 P.M.   A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to NYS Breds.  Purse = $90K.

  The Bromans kept #7 “Land d’Oro” (4-1) for a reason.   The a.m. workout pattern since her April 21st race is solid.   The wager:   $2 W/P/S #7.   Total = $6.   

Race No. 4.  Post time 2:28 P.M.  The Jersey Girl Stakes.  A 6 furlong ungraded stakes race restricted to 3 year-old fillies.   Purse = $150K.

  Two fillies should vie for the lead into the deep stretch, i.e. the likely favorite #5 “Almostgone Rocket” (6-5) and #7 “Moonlit Lady” (12-1).   The edge goes to “Moonlit Lady” because her sire is “Malibu Moon”.   The wagers:   $1 Exacta Box 5/7, then $1 Double 7 w 4/9.   Total = $4.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 3:01 P.M.  A turf sprint restricted to NYS-bred fillies and mares.   Purse = $85K.

   First timer #4 “Summer Whirl” (8-1) shows a good a.m. workout pattern.  She could be “home free” if Johnny V. can get her out of the gate.   Next, #9 “Heart of the Night” (5-1) gets off the rail.   She could be the one.   The wager:   $2 Double 4 w 2, then $1 Exacta Box 4/9.   Total = $4.    

 

Race No. 6.  Post time 3:35 P.M.  A 7 furlong race for maiden fillies and mares. Purse = $100K.

  Both parts of the 1 Entry look tough on paper.   The main question about both is this:  “Where have you been?”   Next, when it comes to a Shug trainee, we all know that Shug will not run a horse if it looks sideways at him.   So #2 “Silvology” (12-1) offers betting value vs. a very suspect field.   The wager:   $1 Double 2 with 4/7.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 4:09 P.M.   An 8 furlong race restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $110K.

Chad’s #7 “Ways and Means” (2-5) did no running five weeks ago.   She may win, but at less than even money?   No thanks.   Next, trainer Todd Pletcher’s #4 “Miz Sense” (8-1) fetched $500K in the sales ring.   She looks “live”.   The wagers:   $3 W/P/S #4, then $0.50 Pick 4:  4/7 w 1/6/7 w 9 w 12   Total = $12.   

 

Race No. 8.  Post time 4:43 P.M.  An 8 1/2 furlong  turf race restricted to NYS Breds.   Purse= $85K.

  Those making Pick 3 wagers will include either #6 or #7 (or both) on their tickets.  Both have good connections but, as we know, connections do not run on the track.   This blogger will also opt for a flat bet wager on #1 “Romantic Charmer” (8-1) who is overdue to exit this condition.   The wagers:  $2 Win and $3 Place #1, then $1 Pick 3:  1/6/7 w 9 w 12.   Total = $8.    

Race No. 9.  Post time 5:17 P.M     The Astoria.  An ungraded 5 1/2  furlong dirt stakes race for 2 year-old fillies.  Purse = $150K.

Trainer Wesley Ward’s #9 “Long Neck Paula” (2-1) was quick in her debut.  She fetched $500K in the sales ring.  Plus, she has Johnny V. in the irons.   What’s not to like?   

The wager:  $2 Double #9 with #12.  Total = $2.    

 

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:50 P.M. The Belmont Gold Cup.  A 16 furlong Grade II turf stake.  Purse = $250K.

Last year’s winner: “Siskany” at nearly 1-1.

  

   It is a good sign that jockey William Buick comes from Europe to ride #12 “Siskany” (1-1) once again.  This favorite faces less opposition than he faced last year when the race was run downstate.  He will be formidable.   No wager here.    

Total Wagers for Thursday, June 6th = $38.

 

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