Breeders’ Cup 2024

Del Mar

Friday, November 1, 2024

Saturday, November 2, 2024

 

  This post includes both days.  Total wagers equal $156.  Of that amount, $50 is devoted to the Juvenile/Classic double of “East Avenue” in the Juvenile and  “City of Troy” in The Classic.   The remaining $106 can be described as “playing around the edges”.  

  Good luck to all.  

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Friday, November 1st

Friday Del Mar Race No. 1. Post time 2:35 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.    A 6 1/2  furlong dirt allowance/optional claiming race.    Purse = $150K.

Originally a stake was supposed to be Race No. 1 on today’s card.   Obviously, that did not fill so we are “stuck” with this group of disappointments.    

While trainer Mark Glatt’s #5 “Red Flag” (8-5) has won his last two races, he faces some real pace pressure today.   Bob Baffert brings #9 “Dothraki” (6-1) back after five months on the sidelines.   This $600K purchase is showing quickness in the a.m. and should not be ignored.  The pick is Irad’s #4 “Navy Man” (6-1) who showed good determination at 8 furlongs recently.   

The wager:  $2 Win and Place #4, then $2 Double #4 with #6.  Total = $6.       

Friday Del Mar Race No. 2.  Post time 3:10 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Senator Ken Maddy Stakes.  A 5 furlong turf sprint restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $200K.

Trainer Peter Eurton’s #6 “Kissed by Fire” (5-2) beat #3 “Just Nails” (7-2) by 2 lengths recently.   The other entrants look slower.   The wager:  $2 Double #6 with #4.  Total = $2.   

Friday Del Mar Race No. 3.  Post time 3:45 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Golden State Juvenile Fillies Stakes.  A 7 furlong dirt stake for state-bred or state-sired two-year old fillies.    Purse = $175K.

Reddam Racing’s #4 “Pavel is Appealing” (9-2) looks ready to advance vs. this bunch.   Those 9-2 odds are a pipe dream.  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #4.    Total = $4.     

Friday Del Mar Race No. 4.   Post time 4:25 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.   The Aftercare Alliance Stakes.  An 8 furlong turf race restricted to two year-olds.  Purse = $200K.

Two entrants “jump off the page” here:  John Sadler’s #6 “Supa Speed” (6-1) and H. Graham Motion’s #13 “Test Score” (15-1).    While either could win, I prefer #13 “Test Score” despite the outside post.  Amerman Racing did not come here to listen to the surf.  In addition, this colt will find his own way through the traffic.   Do not sell short.  The wager:   $2 W/P/S #13.  Total = $6.    

     

Friday Del Mar Race No. 5.  Post time 5:05 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Golden State Juvenile Stakes. A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to California site-bred two year olds.     Purse = $175K.

In 2023 at Santa Anita, this 7 furlong dirt race was won by “Magic Spoon” at odds of 2-1.  He was ridden by T.J. Pereira and trained by Jose Valdez.  Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Tiger in My Tank” who finished dead last at 37-1. 

The bettors will be opening their wallets for #4 “I’m a Bad Boy” (5-2), a winner of his last two races.   This gelding is a “must use” in all horizontal wagers.  For this race, I prefer #1 “Steak Fries” (9-2) who is out of a fairly good “In Excess” broodmare.   The wager:   $2 win #1.  Total = $2.    

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Friday Del Mar Race No. 6.  Post time: 5:45 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf Sprint.   A 5 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

In 2023 at Santa Anita, this 5 furlong turf sprint was won by  “Big Evs”, owned by RP Racing, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by Tom Marquand.   This colt won at odds of 3.20 to1. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:   “Big Evs”.   

Frequent readers of this blog know that any entrant who ran at Deauville gets an extra look.   However, any entrant that won at Deauville gets bet.    Thus, the pick is jockey Ryan Moore’s #7 “Whistlejacket” (5-1).  The wager:   $3 W/P/S #7, then $1 Pick 3:  7 w 4 w 1.   Total = $10. 

Friday Del Mar Race No. 7. Post time 6:25 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Filly.  An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

In 2023 at Santa Anita, this 8 1/2 furlong dirt race was won by   “Just F Y I” at odds of 7-1.  She is owned by George Krikorian, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Junior Alvarado.  Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Esprit Enchant” who finished 22 lengths behind the winner at odds of 73-1.  

Last March, Zedan Racing paid $1.8 Million for #8 “Nooni” (15-1).   Today her trainer reaches out to Flavien Prat, a top jockey.    Next, trainer Mark Casse did not send #4 “La Cara” (12-1) here for kicks.   This filly is well-meant today.   The wager: $2 Win and Place #4, then $1 Exacta Box 4/8.  Total = $6.    

Friday Del Mar Race No. 8.  Post time: 7:05 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Fillies Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year old fillies.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

In 2023 at Santa Anita, this 8 furlong turf race was won by “Hard to Justify”, owned by Wise Racing, trained by Chad Brown, and ridden by Flavien Prat.  She was 9-1.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Buchu” who finished 6th at odds of 8-1.   

Jockey Ryan Moore’s #1 “Lake Victoria” (8-5) lays over this field.   It is her race to lose.   For a wager, I’ll take a shot with #12 to finish second.   The wager:   $2 straight exacta #1 beating #12.   Total = $2.    

Friday Del Mar  Race No. 9  Post time:  7:45 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.

The Juvenile.  An 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year olds.  Purse = $2 Million

In 2023 at Santa Anita, this 8 1/2 furlong dirt race was won by “Fierceness”, owned by Mike Repole, trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by John Velazquez at 16-1.     

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Timberlake” who finished 4th at odds of 3-1.   

First, a comment.   There are only eight entrants in this $2 Million race while it was estimated that more than ten would enter.   This is an absolute shame.   I have heard that owners are avoiding the expense of travel, housing, etc. at DelMar.   Racing east of the Mississippi this year did attract good stakes-caliber fields as owners thought twice about the expensive trek to DelMar.   

This blogger is very disappointed at this field’s size.   This blogger intended to make a major wager on #1 “East Avenue” (5-2) if the odds were closer to 4-1.   Not to be.    The wager:   $50 Juvenile/Classic special double:  #1 “East Avenue” with #3 “City of Troy”.    Total = $50.   

Friday Del Mar Race No. 10.  Post time:  8:25 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

In 2023 at Santa Anita, this 8 furlong turf race was won by “Unquestionable” at 7-5 odds, owned by Magnier, et al, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Unquestionable”.  

Godolphin and trainer Charles Appleby have two entrants in this race and I prefer the one with higher odds, i.e. #12 “Aomori City” (10-1) because I prefer his sire “Oasis Dream” today.   The wager:   $2 Win and Place #12.  Total = $4.   

Total for Friday, November 1 =  $92.

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Breeders’ Cup 2024

Del Mar

Saturday, November 2nd

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 1. Post time 1:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.   An 8 1/2 furlong turf race for NW2 or a $40K claiming price.  Purse = $150K.

Even though he has never raced on turf, trainer John Sadler’s #6 “Canada Gate” (4-1) showed outstanding speed here in late August.   Hard to ignore.   The wager:  $3 win #6, then $2 Double #6 with #3.   Total = $5.      

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 2. Post time 1:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Bayakoa Stakes.  A Grade III, 8 furlong dirt stake restricted to fillies and mares.  Purse =  $200K.

In 2023 at Santa Anita, this race was run at 9 furlongs and was won by “Seal Team , owned by Bass, trained by Richard Mandella, and ridden by Umberto Rispoli at 7-1 odds.  Last year’s pick by this blogger:  Bob Baffert’s “Reincarnate” who finished 9th at 7-1 odds. 

It is hard to bet against trainer Bob Baffert’s #3 “Hope Road” (6-5) so I won’t.  The wager:  $2 Double #3 with #9.  Total = $2.      

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 3.   Post time:  2:15 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Goldikova Stakes.  A Grade III,  8 furlong turf race restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse= $300K.

Taking a bit of a flyer here on #9 “Kathmandu” (7-2) who was knocking heads with some of Europe’s better earlier this year.   Yes, we have not seen her recently but that may have more to do with the wet weather across the pond this year.   The wager:  $2 W/P/S #9.  Total = $6.    

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Saturday Del Mar Race No. 4.   Post time: 3:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Sprint.  A Grade 1, seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse: $1 Million.  

Last year’s winner at 7 furlongs at Santa Anita:   “Goodnight Olive” at odds of 1-1.  She was owned by First Row Partners and Team Hanley,  trained by Chad Brown, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.    Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Goodnight Olive”.  

Jockey Tyler’s #6 “Society” (3-1) has done nothing wrong this year.   Is she better than “Ways and Means”?  Maybe not, but she only has to be better today for a ticket to cash.   The wager:  $2 Win #6, then $2 Double #6 with #12.    Total = $4.  

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 5.  Post time:  3;41 P.M.   Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf Sprint.  A Grade 1, 5  furlong turf race.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner at Santa Anita: “Nobals”.    He is owned by Patricia Hope LLC,  trained by Larry Rivili, and ridden by Gerardo Corrales  at odds of 12-1.  Last year’s distance was 5 furlongs. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Arzak” who finished 6th at odds of 18-1.

The betting public will be emptying their wallets for #9 “Cogburn” (7-5) who set a world record at Saratoga in August.   He was outstanding.   However, in this horse racing game, one has to question why “Cogburn” did not compete in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.   Thus, I’m looking for an alternative, and have landed on the British shipper #12 “Bradsell” (7-2) .   He is a Group I winner this year and is hard to ignore.   The wager:   $2 W/P/S #12.  Total = $6.   

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 6.  Post time: 4:21 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Distaff.  A Grade 1, 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Idiomatic” at odds of 8-5.  She is owned by Juddmonte, trained by Brad Cox, and ridden by Florent Geroux.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Search Results” who finished 6th at odds of 8-1.  

Last week “Idiomatic” was removed from this race and retired to stud.    Racing fans were looking forward to “Idiomatic” and #2 “Thorpedo Anna” (4-5) facing off in this race.  In her last start, “Thorpedo Anna” was all-out to win “The Cotillion” at Parx - - which was not a good sign for coming in to this race.   Therefore, I’ll take a flyer on #9 “Awesome Result” (4-1) who comes in from Japan.   The wager:   $2 W/P/S #9.  Total = $6.    

  

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 7.  Post time: 5:01 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf.  A 12 furlong grass race.  Purse:  $5 Million.

  

Last year’s winner: “Auguste Rodin” at odds of 3-1.    He was owned by Magnier et al, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and ridden by Ryan Moore. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Mostahdaf” who finished up the track as the second choice.  

The three year-old #5 “Jayarebe” (4-1) beat his elders at Longchamps on October 4th.   Previous to this win, he was facing fellow three year-olds.    His connections must believe he will be competitive here.   The wager:   $2 W/P/S #5.  Total = $6.     

 Saturday Del Mar Race No. 8.  Post time 5:41 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Classic.  A 10 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $7 Million.

Last year’s winner:  “White Abarrio” at 2-1 odds.  He was owned by C2 Racing and Milagrosa Stable, trained by Dick Dutrow, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.  Last year’s pick by this blogger:  “White Abarrio”.

The pick is another three year-old #3 “City of Troy” (5-2).   This son of “Justify” is out of  a $900K broodmare who has been an ok producer.   As for the rest, I can’t make a case for any of them.   The wager:  $5 Win #3.    

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 9.  Post time:  6:25 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Turf.  A Grade 1, 11 furlong grass race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Inspiral” at 10 furlongs.  This 4 year-old mare is owned by Chevely Park Stud, trained by John Gosden, and ridden by Lanfranco Dettori.  She won at odds of 5-2.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Inspiral”. 

Trainer Aidan O’Brien’s #7 “Content” (6-1) caught soft turf in her last two starts.   She likes to hear her feet rattle so she’s the pick.   The wager:   $2 W/P/S #7, then $2 Double #7 with #8.  Total = $8.  

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 10.  Post time: 7:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Sprint.  A Grade 1, 6 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $2 Million.  

 

Last year’s winner: “Elite Power”, owned by Juddmonte, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.,  at odds of 9-5.

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Elite Power”. 

Johnny V’s #8 “Straight No Chaser” (5-1) ran a hole in the wind on September 29th.   That race is hard to ignore.  The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #1.   Total = $2.         

  

Saturday Del Mar Race No.11.  Post time:  7:45 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Mile.  A Grade 1, 8 furlong turf race.  Purse:  $2 Million.

  

Last year’s winner:  “Master of the Seas” at odds of 3-1    He was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby,  and ridden by William Buick.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Mawj”, who finished a close second at odds of 9/2.  

On October 6th, the filly #1 “Ramatuelle” (5-1) beat 15 foes at Longchamps in a Group 1, 7 furlong turf race.  This daughter of “Justify” will be tough to beat.  The wager:   $2 W/P/S #1, then $2 Double #1 with #9.   Total = $8.       

Saturday Del Mar Race No. 12.   Post time:  8:25 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Dirt Mile.  A Grade 1,  8 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner at Santa Anita:  “Cody’s Wish”, owned by Godolphin, trained by Bill Mott, and ridden by Junior Alvarado.  He was the wagering favorite at 4-5 odds.    Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Charge It” who finished a distant 4th. 

  

Chad’s #9 “Domestic Product” (7-2) looks poised for a good effort here.  The others do not impress at all.   The wager:  $2 W/P/S #9.  Total = $6.    

Total for Saturday, November 2nd = $64.  

Total Wagers for two days = $156.  

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Getting Ready for  BC 2024

Posting Plans

 

   First, I regret skipping Saratoga’s 2024 meet.  I was able to watch all races on TV here in the Albany area, but was unable to do the research needed to make any logical wagers.    

  Only one posting for both days will be made on Thursday, October 31st before 12 Noon.   

The Handicapping

  Veterans of  Breeders’ Cup wagering know there is only one way to handicap.  We are not looking for the best horse to cash a ticket.  Nope.   We are selecting horses trending upward at this time of the year.  

  And now for a little history.  

  In a taped interview for the National Museum of Racing and Hall of Fame, legendary trainer H. Allen Jerkens discussed “Sky Beauty”, his wonderful filly who banked $1.2 million on the track from 1992-95.   He said she was never any good in the Fall, and he tried everything with her but nothing worked.  She just would not be effective in October.     On the other hand, a New York bred gelding named “Evening Attire” was just the opposite.   When the first warm day of Spring happened, he was done for 5 months.  Then, after the first cold day of September, “Evening Attire” would put himself into training on the farm.  He would run all day in the field and kick and scream until he was taken to a race track.   

  No, “Evening Attire” was not Breeders’ Cup material.   When the gate opened, he would drop back in the field.  You almost needed a search warrant to find him, until the field rounded the far turn.  Then “Evening Attire” would unleash his finishing kick, and usually cash a check.  

The Sources

   As the BC races approach, I like to read “Blood Horse” and “Horse Racing Nation”.  Both are .coms and both are free.   Once in a while, the reader can glean a trend or two from these outlets.   I also use pedigreequery.com to look at pedigrees.   My friend “Spongie” uses clocker reports available from DRF.   He is looking for trends too. 

OK - - that’s enough for now.   

Donn   10/16/24 

 

Belmont @ Saratoga

Saturday, June 8, 2024

Weather watch:   The early week forecast by NOAA has improved (as of 4 P.M. Thursday).     Maybe some showers.        

Short Note.

No blog post for Sunday’s card of races for NYS Breds.

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track.    

  

Race No. 1.  Post time 10:45 A.M.  An 8 furlong race restricted to horses that have not won twice.    Purse = $110K. 

  Manuel Franco opted to stick with #5 “Quick to Accuse” (7-2).   Why?   Maybe Manny thinks there is ‘more in the tank’.  The wagers:  $2 Win #5, then $2 Double #5 with #6, then $0.50 Pick 5:   5 w 6 w 6 w 4/5 w 3.   Total = $5.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:18 A.M.   An 8 furlong turf race restricted to 3 year-old fillies that have not won twice.    Purse = $110K.

   Chad’s #6 “Spaliday” (3-1) looks to be the best here.  The others do not look threatening.   She should win by 1 1/2 lengths.   The wagers:   $3 Win #6, then $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 4/5.   Total = $5       

Race No. 3.  Post time 11:52 A.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race with a list of restrictions.      Purse = $115K.

   Joel picks up the mount on #6 “Awesome Native” (4-1) who has won four of his nine starts.   This will be his first race in six months, so be cautious.   Note the bullet a.m. timed workout on May 18th.   The wagers:  $2 Win #6, then $1Pick 3:  6 w 4/5 w 3, then $0.50 Pick 5:  6 w 4/5 w 3 w 7 w 5.   Total = $5.

     

Race No. 4.  Post time 12:31 P.M.  The True North.  A 6 1/2 furlong Grade II dirt sprint stake.     Purse = $350K.

Chad’s #4 “Accretive” (5-1) looks poised for a big effort.   This slightly shorter distance should help him get to the wire before “Gun Pilot”.  The wager: $2 Double 4 w 3 and turn the page.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 1:11 P.M.   The Poker.  An 8 furlong, Grade III turf race.  Purse = $350K.

  Chad’s #3 “Carl Spackler” (2-1) knew where the finish line was at Churchill Downs.   This is one smart horse who has won his last 3 races.   The wager:  $2 Win #3, then $1 Pick 3:  3 w 7 w 5.  Total = $3.   

Race No. 6.  Post time 1:51 P.M.   The Suburban.  A 10 furlong, Grade II dirt race.  Purse = $350K.

  Not a stellar group entered here.   Trainer Todd Pletcher’s #7 “Crupi” has OK speed figs when racing without Lasix, so he is the pick.   The wagers:  $1 Pick 3:  7 w 5 w 4.  Total = $1.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 2:36 P.M.  The Ogden Phipps.  A Grade I, 9  furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $500K.

  The MOTO pick is #5 “Idiomatic” (3-5).   No wager here.   

Race No. 8.  Post time 3:22  P.M.  The Woody Stephens.  A 7 furlong, Grade 1 dirt stake for three year-olds.  Purse = $500K. 

  It is very hard to ignore the April 27th race at Oaklawn Park by #4 “Valentine Candy” (6-1).   The best part is that the trainer kept Ricardo Santana, Jr. in the irons for this race.   Next, let’s congratulate trainer Chad for keeping jockey Eric Cancel aboard #6 “Reasoned Analysis” (15-1).   Chad’s decision shows class.  Next, the main threat to “Valentine Candy” should come from #9 “Nash” (6-1), the beaten favorite in the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.   The wagers:   $3 W/P/S #4, then $2 Double #4 with #12.  Total = $11.   

  

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:08 P.M.   The Jaipur.  A Grade I turf sprint.   Purse = $500K.

  Irad’s #8 “Cogburn” (2-1) smoked ‘em at Churchill in May.   He could do it again.  However, William Buick’s #12 “Mischief Magic” (8-1) can win this with a better start.   The wager:  $3 Double #12 with #6.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 4:52 P.M.    The Metropolitan.  A Grade I, 8 furlong dirt stake.    Purse = $1 million

  Trainer Richard Dutrow looks to have #6 “White Abarrio” (6-5) primed for a maximum effort.   He drew a great post for himself too.   The wager:  $5 Met/Bel Double:  #6 with #2.  Total = $5.   

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:36 P.M.    The Manhattan.   A Grade I, 9 1/2 furlong turf stake.     Purse = $1 million.

  Frequent readers of this blog know that entrants who have raced at Deauville (Fr.) receive special attention while entrants who have won at Deauville get selected and bet.     Here we have #6 “Al Riffa” (6-1) who went “on the shelf” last August and emerged with a good effort in late April.   This colt is a ‘must use’ in the exotics.   Most other handicappers will see this as a two-horse race between Chad’s #5 “Program Trading” (5-2) and Godolphin’s #9 “Measured Time” (7-2).   Both are formidable and playable.   In the wagering, I’ll lean toward #9.   The wagers:   $0.50 Pick 4:   5/9 w 2 w 7/12 w 11, then $1 Trifecta 9 w 5/6 w 5/6, and finally $2 W/P/S #6.   Total = $10.    

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:41 P.M.    The Belmont Stakes.  A Grade I, 10 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-olds.   Purse = $2 million

  The betting public will be opening their wallet for #9 “Sierra Leone” (9-5) who had an overland trip in the Kentucky Derby.   This colt did not have a great start on the first Saturday in May.   He will have to do better today.   The pick is #2 “Resilience” (10-1) who has been working at the Spa recently.   This colt’s maternal grand dam is “Tranquility Lake” who banked over $1.6 million on the track.   The wagers:   $15 W/P/S #2, then $1 Pick 3:  2/9 w 7/12 w 11.  Total = $49.   

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:27 P.M.    An 8 1/2  furlong turf race restricted to maiden NYS Bred fillies and mares.    Purse = $85K.

  Drawing a wide post position is #12 “Alittlebitnaughty” (8-1) who is the selection for two reasons.   First, her dam’s sire was “Pulpit” - - - a real plus.   Second, she gets Lasix for the first time.   Next, #7 “Splashy” (6-1) should not be ignored.   Of concern is the slow a.m. timed workouts.  The wager:  $2 Double #12 with #11.   Total = $2.    

Race No. 14.  Post time 8:02 P.M.    A 5 1/2  furlong turf race.    Purse = $110K.

  Rolling down the stretch late should be #11 “Mansa Musa” (5-2).   This three year-old exits stakes company and gets Lasix for the first time.   Rounding out the exacta could be #6 “Yarrow” (5-1) with Joel aboard.   The wagers: $2 Win #11, then $2 Exacta #11 beating #6.   Total = $4.   

Total Wagers for Saturday, June 8 = $105.

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Belmont @ Saratoga

Friday, June 7, 2024

Weather watch:   Iffy again but on Wednesday morning NOAA improved the forecast slightly.        

 

Short Note.

This blogger will not wager on 2 year-old races at this abbreviated meet.  A selection in a 2 year-old race will only be used for a Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 wager.

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track. 

Corrections:  On Wednesday afternoon, this blogger amended the "Weather Watch" and corrected the misspelling of 'fillies' in 3 places.   No changes to selections or wagers were made.    

Friday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 12:20 P.M.   A 7 furlong race for maidens.    Purse = $100K.

   A great betting race!  Todd’s #1 “Trulli Warrior” (7-2) shows an encouraging a.m. timed workout pattern.  He’s the pick.  The wager:  $2 Double #1 with #5, then $1 Pick 3:  1 w 5 w 6.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 12:53 P.M.   A 10 furlong race for older horses.    Purse = $115K.

  Chad’s #5 “Leading Contender” (5-2) lays over this field.   Expect odds closer to 9-5.  The wagers:  $2 Double #5 with #6, then $0.50 Pick 4:  5 w 6 w 11 w 3/10.   Total = $3.   

Race No. 3.  Post time 1:27 P.M.   A 9 furlong turf race restricted to horses that have run in a claiming race where the claiming price was $50,000 or less.  Purse = $65K.

  Trainer Linda Rice’s #6 “Yo Daddy” (5-1) has had 8 weeks to get ready for this effort.  He shows a nice a.m. workout pattern too.   The wager: $2 Win #6 and turn the page.  Total = $2.   

Race No. 4.  Post time 2:01 P.M.   A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to horses that have run in a claiming race where the claiming price was $50,000 or less.  Purse = $65K.

  Sackatoga Stable’s #11 “Leftembehind” (10-1) put in a nice effort in December at this distance.   He is not the worst stab in the world.   The wager:  $2 Double #11 with #10.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 2:36 P.M.  A turf sprint.   Purse = $115K.

  Yes, #3 “Clear the Air” (7-2) has shown speed, but that has been out of state.   Instead, I’ll take one of the locals, i.e. #10 “Mischievous Angel” (4-1).  It is high time that this gelding starts to earn back some of that $600K he fetched in the sales ring.   The wagers:  $2 W/P/S #10, then $1 Pick 3:  10 w 7/11 w 3.   Total = $8.    

Race No. 6.  Post time 3:11 P.M.  An 8 furlong turf race restricted to 3 year-olds. Purse = $110K.

  Christophe’s #6 “Spirit Prince” (7-2)  has been “in the money” in all five starts.   So he is logical - - - right?   Yes, but he has not exactly been a speed demon.   Next, after trying to make #7 “Pirate” (6-1) a dirt horse, trainer Todd tries the grass.   He will have to be quick about it to beat #11 “Sanderson” (12-1) to the wire.   The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 7/11, then $1 Pick 3:  7 w 3 w 1/10.   Total = $4.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 3:46 P.M.   A 6 furlong sprint restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $110K.

  Trainer Bill Mott’s #3 “Roswell” (5-1) shows three solid a.m. workouts at Churchill.   Those workouts indicate a progression and are hard to ignore.   The wagers:  $1 Pick 6:   3 w 10 w 6 w 4 w 1/2 w 9, then $1 Double #3 with 1/10.   Total = $4. 

 

Race No. 8.  Post time 4:21 P.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong dirt race restricted to horses that have not won twice.   Purse= $110K.

  On April 26th at Keeneland, #10 “One Giant Leap” (15-1) stumbled at the start from an inside post position and lost all chance under Johnny V.   This entrant did not come to Saratoga just to taste the water.   The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 1/10, then $2 Double #10 with #6, and finally $1 Pick 3:  1/10 with 6 with 4.   Total = $6. 

      

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:55 P.M     The Intercontinental.  An Grade II,  5 1/2  furlong turf stakes race for fillies and mares.  Purse = $200K.

  In this year’s edition of the Intercontinental, the question is “Can any filly build enough of a lead to get to the wire first before #6 “Roses for Debra” (6-5) unleashes her late kick?”  Of her opponents today, I think not.   The wagers:  $0.50 Pick 4: 6 w 4 w 1/2 w 9, then $2 Double 6 w 4.  Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:30 P.M. The Just A Game.  An 8 furlong Grade I turf stake restricted to flies and mares.    Purse = $500K.

   Hmm.  Of the seven entrants, five are trained by Chad Brown.   Wow!  Next, this is a very contentious race.   Usually this blogger is able to throw out several entrants as “impossible”.   Not this time   Now, as for the selection, the pick is #4 “Coppice” (3-1).   This filly is “rounding into form” and will be very competitive.   The wagers:  $2 W/P/S #4, then $5 Just a Game/Belmont Double:  #4 in this race with “Resilience” in the Belmont Stakes, then $1 Pick 3:  4 w 1/2 w 9.   Total = $13.   

Race No. 11.  Post time 6:05 P.M. The New York.  A Grade I, 9 1/2 furlong turf stake restricted to fillies and mares.    Purse = $750K.

  Jockey William Buick is here to ride #2 “English Rose” (2-1) for Charles Appleby.   This filly failed to fire in her last race, so Buyer Beware!   Next, Chad’s #1 “McKulick” (10-1) loves the longer distance.  Yes, she won the Grade II Glens Falls here last year, but that was on the inner turf.  I’m picking both fillies.   The  wagers:   $1 Exacta Box 1/2, then $2 Double #1 with #9.  Total = $4.   

 

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:40 P.M. The Acorn.  A Grade I, 9 furlong stake restricted to 3 year-old fillies and mares.    Purse = $500K.

 Five weeks ago #9 “Thorpedo Anna” (8-5) smoked the field in the Kentucky Oaks.   Why would we expect anything different?   Oh - - and those 8-5 odds are a pipe dream.  The wager:   $2 Win #9.   

Total Wagers for Friday, June 7th = $54

 

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Belmont @ Saratoga

Thursday, June 6, 2024

Weather watch:   Prepare to get wet.  There is an 80% chance of showers.  There could also be thunderstorms.   

 

Short Note.

This blogger will not wager on 2 year-old races at this abbreviated meet.  A selection in a 2 year-old race will only be used for a Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 6 wager.   

Surface change?   Cancel all selections and wagers if any race is moved from the turf and placed on the main track.   

Thursday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 12:50 P.M.   An 8 1/2  furlong turf race.    Claiming price = $40K.

No pick.   Pass.   

Race No. 2.  Post time 1:22 P.M.   The Tremont.  A 5 1/2 furlong turf race for 2 year-olds.    Purse = $150K.

   Hmm.  Wesley Ward with a 2 year-old runner - - again.   The pick is #7 “Touchy” but no wager here.  

 

Race No. 3.  Post time 1:55 P.M.   A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to NYS Breds.  Purse = $90K.

  The Bromans kept #7 “Land d’Oro” (4-1) for a reason.   The a.m. workout pattern since her April 21st race is solid.   The wager:   $2 W/P/S #7.   Total = $6.   

Race No. 4.  Post time 2:28 P.M.  The Jersey Girl Stakes.  A 6 furlong ungraded stakes race restricted to 3 year-old fillies.   Purse = $150K.

  Two fillies should vie for the lead into the deep stretch, i.e. the likely favorite #5 “Almostgone Rocket” (6-5) and #7 “Moonlit Lady” (12-1).   The edge goes to “Moonlit Lady” because her sire is “Malibu Moon”.   The wagers:   $1 Exacta Box 5/7, then $1 Double 7 w 4/9.   Total = $4.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 3:01 P.M.  A turf sprint restricted to NYS-bred fillies and mares.   Purse = $85K.

   First timer #4 “Summer Whirl” (8-1) shows a good a.m. workout pattern.  She could be “home free” if Johnny V. can get her out of the gate.   Next, #9 “Heart of the Night” (5-1) gets off the rail.   She could be the one.   The wager:   $2 Double 4 w 2, then $1 Exacta Box 4/9.   Total = $4.    

 

Race No. 6.  Post time 3:35 P.M.  A 7 furlong race for maiden fillies and mares. Purse = $100K.

  Both parts of the 1 Entry look tough on paper.   The main question about both is this:  “Where have you been?”   Next, when it comes to a Shug trainee, we all know that Shug will not run a horse if it looks sideways at him.   So #2 “Silvology” (12-1) offers betting value vs. a very suspect field.   The wager:   $1 Double 2 with 4/7.   Total = $2.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 4:09 P.M.   An 8 furlong race restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $110K.

Chad’s #7 “Ways and Means” (2-5) did no running five weeks ago.   She may win, but at less than even money?   No thanks.   Next, trainer Todd Pletcher’s #4 “Miz Sense” (8-1) fetched $500K in the sales ring.   She looks “live”.   The wagers:   $3 W/P/S #4, then $0.50 Pick 4:  4/7 w 1/6/7 w 9 w 12   Total = $12.   

 

Race No. 8.  Post time 4:43 P.M.  An 8 1/2 furlong  turf race restricted to NYS Breds.   Purse= $85K.

  Those making Pick 3 wagers will include either #6 or #7 (or both) on their tickets.  Both have good connections but, as we know, connections do not run on the track.   This blogger will also opt for a flat bet wager on #1 “Romantic Charmer” (8-1) who is overdue to exit this condition.   The wagers:  $2 Win and $3 Place #1, then $1 Pick 3:  1/6/7 w 9 w 12.   Total = $8.    

Race No. 9.  Post time 5:17 P.M     The Astoria.  An ungraded 5 1/2  furlong dirt stakes race for 2 year-old fillies.  Purse = $150K.

Trainer Wesley Ward’s #9 “Long Neck Paula” (2-1) was quick in her debut.  She fetched $500K in the sales ring.  Plus, she has Johnny V. in the irons.   What’s not to like?   

The wager:  $2 Double #9 with #12.  Total = $2.    

 

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:50 P.M. The Belmont Gold Cup.  A 16 furlong Grade II turf stake.  Purse = $250K.

Last year’s winner: “Siskany” at nearly 1-1.

  

   It is a good sign that jockey William Buick comes from Europe to ride #12 “Siskany” (1-1) once again.  This favorite faces less opposition than he faced last year when the race was run downstate.  He will be formidable.   No wager here.    

Total Wagers for Thursday, June 6th = $38.

 

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Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Weather watch:  Friday could be very wet.   Stay tuned for Saturday.     

Writer’s Note:  This wallet will make only one wager on Friday, May 3rd.   As for the Kentucky Derby itself, #17 “Fierceness” (5-2) is the MOTO selection.   The others are going to have to chase him, then catch him - - - a very tall order.    

 

Friday’s Card

  

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:51 P.M. The Kentucky Oaks.  A 9 furlong, Grade I, dirt stake for three year old fillies.   Purse = $1.25 Million.

Let’s start and end with #8 Tarifa.  She has been “the class” of this generation.   The wagering public will have to decide if any of the other entrants have caught up with her.   Until one of them proves it, “Tarifa” is the pick - - even if the track is wet.   

Oaks/Derby Double:  8 with 17 “Fierceness”.  One wager of $20.        

Total Wagers for Friday May 3rd = $20. 

Saturday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 10:30 A.M.  A 6 1/2 furlong sprint for maidens.   Purse = $120,000.

No pick. No wager.

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:01 A.M.  A 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $134,000.  

No pick.  No wager.   

 

 Race No. 3.  Post time 11:31 A.M.  An 8 1/2  furlong dirt race for 3 year olds.   Purse = $127,000.

No pick. No wager.

Race No. 4.  Post time 12:04 P.M.  The Knicks Go.   An 8 furlong dirt race for non-winners of a graded stakes race in 23-24.   Purse = $200,000.  Note:  no race day medication allowed. 

No pick. No wager.  

Race No. 5.  Post time 12:36 P.M.   The Twin Spires Turf Sprint.   A Grade II 5 1/2 furlong turf race.   Purse = $600,000.  Note:  no race day medication allowed. 

Phil D’Amato’s #4 “Motorious” (7-2)  is the most likely winner.   Don’t bother with the others.   The wager:   $5 Win #4.  Total wager = $5.

Race No. 6.  Post time 1:14 P.M.   The Derby City Distaff.  A Grade I, 7 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Box the 7/10 Exacta and visit the cashier.  

No wager here.   

Race No. 7.   Post time 1:56 P.M.    The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile.    A Grade II, 8 furlong turf race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $750,000.

Junior picks up the mount on #1 “Ag Bullet”  (5-1) who is a different animal when closer to the hedge.   Junior knows how to ride on the inside.   The wager:  $3 Win and Place #1.   Total = $6.   

Race No. 8.  Post time 2:56 P.M.   The Pat Day Mile.  A Grade II,  8 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $600,000.

Chad’s #8 “Top Conor” (5-2) fetched $1 Million at a two year-old sale.   Could be something there.   Next, trainer Brad Cox has decided 8 furlongs is enough for #12 “Nash” (3-1) who raised eyebrows (including mine) earlier this year.   Finally, this wallet will open for #7 “Who Dey” (10-1) who closed for second on April 15th.   This cold could be coming around at the right time.   The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #7, then $1 Exacta Box 7/12.  Total = $6.   

Race No. 9.  Post time 3:40 P.M.  The American Turf.  A Grade II, 8 1/2  furlong turf race for three year-olds.   Purse = $600,000.

Jockey William Buick did not come to the U.S. for this race.   Hmm.   Maybe he is skeptical that #5 “Legend of Time” can win here.   Even so, this colt is the pick.   

The wagers:

$2 Double #5 with #2.   

$1 Pick 4:  5 w 2 w 5 w 17.   

Total = $3.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 4:31 P.M.  The Churchill Downs Stakes.   A Grade I, 7 furlong dirt race.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Irad takes the mount on #2 “Tejano Twist” (4-1) who, while not winning in 2024 yet, has run decently.    He is the tepid pick.   

The wager:   $0.50 Pick 5:  2 with 5 with 17 with 2/7/9 with 12.

Total wager = $1.50.   

Race No.11.  Post time 5:27 P.M.   The Old Forester Turf Classic.  A Grade I, 9 furlong turf race.   Purse = $1,000,000.

Don’t bet the ranch here.   This is a very contentious race with at least 7 possible winners.   

This blogger’s wallet will be ajar for #5 “Program Trading” (9-2), but only slightly.  

The wagers:

$2 Double #5 with #17.  

$1 Pick 3:  5 with 17 with 2/7/9.   

$1 Pick 4:  5 with 17 with 2/7/9 with 12.   

Total wagers = $8.     

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:57 P..M.  The Kentucky Derby.  A Grade I, 10 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $5 million.

The pundits will try to tout several entrants.   They will cite recent workouts, physical size, etc.   Don’t believe the hype.    This is #17 “Fierceness” (5-2) race to lose.  Exacta bettors will be hard pressed to pick who will run in the place position.   My exotic  wager would include both #19 and #11 if I bet an exacta or trifecta.        

The wagers:   

• $2 Double #17 with #7.   
• $1 Pick 3:   #17 with 2/7/9 with 12.   
• If “Tarifa” won the Kentucky Oaks yesterday, no win bet on #17.  If not, then $10 win #17.   
• Total wagers = either $5 or 15.  

Race No. 13.  Post time 8 P.M.  A 7 furlong dirt race for three year-olds.   Purse = $127,000.

Trainer Bill Mott could have the late double on today’s card.  In this race, his #7 “Jefferson Street” (7-2) looks very ‘live’.   Chad’s #9 “General Partner” (2-1) and #2 “Discreet Mischief” (5-2) are the rivals who could win this.   The wager:  $3 Double #7 with #12.   Total wager = $3.    

Race No. 14.  Post time 8:35 P.M.  An 8 furlong dirt race for maiden three year-olds.   Purse = $120,000.

Trainer Bill Mott’s #12 “Timeout” (6-1) missed the break in his first race.    While the outside post is not ideal, this Claiborne colt is hard to ignore.  No wager. 

Total Wagers for Saturday, May 4th = $37.50 or $47.50 (see Derby wagers).   

Total wagers for both Friday and Saturday = $57.50 or $67.50.   

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