Belmont Park

Friday and Saturday, June 9 & 10, 2023

Weather watch:   Iffy.  Could be a shower.  Not sure about the smokey haze.  

 

Short Note.

This is the only post for both days. 

Editorial Opinion. 

Race fans are increasingly aware that field size in stakes races continues to shrink in this “non-Lasix era”.   The simple fact is that horses treated with Lasix on race day can run more often each year.  Small field size in any race generally reduces bettor interest.  Continuance of this Lasix ban will seriously affect the industry.  

Friday’s Card

Race No. 1.  Post time 12:50 P.M.   A 6 furlong dirt race restricted to maiden NYS Breds.    Purse = $75K.

Only seven entrants.  Ugh!  

In the sales ring, #3 “Thank You Jon” (5-1) fetched $120K, probably based on his maternal grand-dam’s progeny.   His most recent a.m. timed workouts have been quick.  The wager:  $2 Win #3, then $2 Double #3 with #1.  Total = $4. 

  

Race No. 2.  Post time 1:22 P.M.   A 6 furlong turf race.    Purse = $95K.

From the rail, #1 “Bold Journey” (6-5) looks too tough for this bunch.  Take the short price.  The wager:  $1 Pick 3:  1 w 5 w 1, then $1 Pick 4:  1 w 5 w 1 w 8.  Total = $2.  

Race No. 3.  Post time 1:55 P.M.   An 8 furlong dirt race restricted to maiden NYS Breds.  Purse = $75K.

Again.  Only seven entrants.  Ugh!

Centennial Farms may have paid over $200K for #6 “Meteorite” (6-5) but he has yet to show anything.  His dam’s progeny have really tailed off in production recently.   No thank you.  Next, reinstated trainer Richard Dutrow’s #5 “Blue Plate Special” (3-1) has caught mud in his only two starts, and the last start was not shabby.  His dam-side is more promising.  The wager:  $2 Double #5 with #1.  Total = $2.   

Race No. 4.  Post time 2:28 P.M.  The Just A Game Stakes.  An 8 furlong, Grade I turf race restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $500K.

Last year’s winner:  “Regal Glory” at odds of 1:40 to 1.  She beat four other starters. 

Not a race to place a wager.  First, those 1-2 morning line odds on #1 “In Italian” are too low.  New York bettors will make her 1-1 or 4-5, but not 1-2 against this field.   She is the mare to beat and must be used in doubles, pick 3’s, etc. The wager = $0.       

Race No. 5.  Post time 3:02 P.M.  An 8 furlong dirt race for horses that have started for a claiming price of $50K or less.   Purse = $65K.

The entrants have all been disappointments in their respective careers, and none bigger than Robert Evans’ homebred #8 “Endowed” (3-1).  However, this just might be a field he can beat.  The wager:  $2 Double #8 with #8.  Total = $2.  

 

Race No. 6.  Post time 3:35 P.M.  A 6 furlong sprint with conditions. Purse = $100K.

Wide open here!   Trainer Linda Rice’s #8 “Dot’s Dollar” (6-1) was competitive on April 28th, which was just one week after winning.  He fits nicely in here.  The wager:  $3 Win and Place #8, then $2 Double #8 with #2.  Total = $8.   

Race No. 7.  Post time 4:08 P.M.   A 7 furlong turf sprint restricted to NYS Breds   Purse = $80K.

Trainer Mark Casse’s #2 “Conman” (3-1) did everything but win on May 19th.  Any race close to that one wins this heat.  The wager:  $3 Win #2, then $2 Double #2 with #8.  Total = $5.

  

Race No. 8.  Post time 4:41 P.M.  The New York.  A 10 furlong Grade I  turf stake restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse= $600K.

Last year’s winner:  “Bleecker Street” at nearly 3-1. 

Trainer Charles Appleby entered #8 “With the Moonlight” (9-2) at Newmarket for a public workout.  Today is ‘GO DAY’.  Look for her in the final furlong, if at all.  The wager:  $3 Win and Place #8, then $5 New York/Metropolitan Double: #8 “With the Moonlight” with #1 “Cody’s Wish”.  Total = $11.  

 

Race No. 9.  Post time 5:14 P.M     The Acorn.  A Grade I, 8 1/2  furlong dirt stakes race for 3 year-old fillies.  Purse = $500K.

Last year’s winner;  “Matareya” at odds of 0.30 to 1.  She won by six lengths.

Trainer Todd Pletcher must have thought #5 “Munny’s Gold” (9-5) would have an easy win in the Churchill stake, so he opted for the one-turn race vs. the two-turn Kentucky Oaks.  Today’s Acorn is run at one turn, making “Munny’s Gold” a very formidable foe.   Next, Chad’s #8 “Accede” could easily run second here, but there will be no catching the winner.   The wager:  $2 Exacta #5 beating #8, then  $5 Double #5 “Munny’s Gold” with #4 “Secret Oath” in the Ogden Phipps.  Total = $7.   

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:47 P.M. The Belmont Gold Cup.  A 16 furlong Grade II turf stake.  Purse = $250K.

Last year’s winner: “Loft” at nearly 3-1.

Note:  The purse for this year’s race has been reduced from last year. 

Trainer Charles Appleby and jockey William Buick did not make the trip from Europe to just look at the tall buildings.  Their #2 “Siskany” (8-5) should save ground until the final turn, then kick free to the wire and win by two lengths.   The main challenge will be posed by #13 “The Grey Wizard” (10-1).  This gelding’s jockey, Hall of Fame Johnny V., will save ground until the final turn, then try to unleash a furious kick.   

The wager:  $3 Double #2 with #7, and $1 Double #13 with #7, then $5 Gold Cup/Belmont Double:  #2 “Siskany”  with #7 “Hit Show”.  Total = $9.  

Race No. 11.  Post time 6:19 P.M.  The Intercontinental.  A Grade III, 6 furlong turf sprint stake restricted to fillies and mares.   Purse = $200K.

Last year’s winner:  “Caravel” at nearly 3-1. 

Last year’s winner opted to face the boys tomorrow in the $400K Jaipur.  At least we will get to see her.    Today we should expect a 7 - 5 - pick ‘em finish.  So the pick is #7 “Bubble Rock” (5-2) to win, with #5 “Bay Storm” (3-1) finishing second.  As for #3 “Clitheroe” (15-1), while she did compete at Deauville, her races on the island of Great Britain were just plain lousy.   If she wins, I lose.  The wager:  $2 Win #7.  Total = $2.    

Total Wagers for Friday, June 9th = $52

 

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Belmont Park 

Saturday, June 10, 2022

Weather watch:  Showers - - maybe.  Not sure about the smokey haze yet.  

  

Race No. 1.  Post time 11:20 A.M.  A 6 furlong turf race restricted to maiden fillies and mares.    Purse = $90K.

Skip - - too early for me.  

Race No. 2.  Post time 11:54 A.M.   A 7 furlong turf race restricted to NYS bred fillies and mares.   Purse = $80K.

Skip - - too early for me.   

Race No. 3.  Post time 12:29 P.M.  The True North.  A 6 1/2 furlong Grade II dirt sprint stake.     Purse = $250K.

Last year’s winner:  “Jackie’s Warrior” by 5 lengths at 1-4 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Jackie’s Warrior”. 

Trainer Bill Mott’s #4 “Elite Power” (4-5) is the pick, but there is no value in the race.  The wager:  $1 Pick 3:  4 w 1 w 1/6.   Total = $2.     

Race No. 4.  Post time 1:06 P.M.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to horses that have not won twice.  .    Purse = $95K.

When near the rail, #1 “American Law” (4-1) seems to run better.  Let’s play that angle in this wide-open race.  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #1, then $0.50 Pick 4:  1 w 1/6 w 5 w 4.  Total = $5.   

Race No. 5.  Post time 1:44 P.M.   The Poker.  An 8 furlong, Grade III turf race.  Purse = $200K.

Trainer Todd Pletcher’s #6 “Emmanuel” (9-2) has stayed competitive.  Yes, the French invader did impress, but that was two months ago.  The wager:  $2 Win #6, then $2 Double #6 with #5.  Total = $4.  

Race No. 6.  Post time 2:22 P.M.   The Brooklyn.  A 12 furlong, Grade II dirt race.  Purse = $250K.

Last year’s purse was $400K.   Last year’s winner:  “Fearless” at odds of 3 1/2 to 1.  Last year’s pick:  “Max Player” who finished 6th at 7-1 odds.

Midwest invader #5 “Next” (3-1) faltered as the favorite in his last start.  Maybe he will hold on today in this wide-open race.   The wager:  $2 Double 5 w 4, then $1 Pick 3:  5 w 4 w 2/8.   Total = $4.  

 

Race No. 7.  Post time 3:02 P.M.  The Ogden Phipps.  A Grade I, 8 1/2 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.   Purse = $500K.

Last year’s winner:  “Clairiere” at almost 5-1.  Last year’s pick:  “Malathaat” who finished second by a head.

D. Wayne’s #4 “Secret Oath” (2-1) is a competitive sort who missed by a neck in her last race.  She’s the pick.  The wager:   $1 Double #4 with 2/8.  Total = $2.      

Race No. 8.  Post time 3:42 P.M.  The Woody Stephens.  A 7 furlong, Grade 1 dirt stake for three year-olds.  Purse = $400K. 

Last year’s winner:  “Jack Christopher” who won by ten lengths at odds of 2-5. Last year’s pick:  “Jack Christopher”.  

Taking “a flyer” here with #2 “Gun Pilot” (20-1) who started from an outside post at Churchill Downs.  He got hung wide but still tried.  Next, trainer Bob Baffert’s #8 “Fort  Bragg” (5-1) deserves to be in the exotics.  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #2, then $1 Exacta Box 2/8, then $1 Pick 3:  2/8 w 10 w 1.  Total = $8.   

Race No. 9.  Post time 4:19 P.M.   The Jaipur.  A Grade I turf sprint.   Purse = $400K.

Last year’s winner:  “Casa Creed” at 4-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Arrest Me Red” who finished 2nd by 1/2 length.

Christophe’s #10 “Big Invasion” (6-1) was a victim of a slow start plus traffic problems in his last race five weeks ago.  Next, while #12 “Caravel” (3-1) is a wonderful mare, the only six year-old mare that I ever bet was “Zenyata”.  Finally, Mark Casse’s #6 “Ice Chocolat” (30-1) will be rolling in the lane.  The wagers:  $0.50 Pick 4:  10 w 1 w 4/8 w 7, then $1 Pick 3:  6/10 w 1 w 4, and finally $2 Win and Place #10.  Total = $7.   

  

Race No. 10.  Post time 5:04 P.M.    The Metropolitan.  A Grade I, 8 furlong dirt stake.    Purse = $1 million.  

Last year’s winner:  “Flightline” at 1-2 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Flightline”. 

With five wins in a row, including the Breeders’ Cup Mile, #1 “Cody’s Wish” (7-5) is the pick until he loses.  The wager:  $0.50 Pick 4:  1 w 4/8 w 7 w 3.  Total = $1.   

 

Race No. 11.  Post time 5:54 P.M.    The Manhattan.   A Grade I, 10 furlong turf stake.     Purse = $750K.

Last year’s winner:  “Tribhuvan” at 19-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Santin” who finished 6th.  

Last year, this blogger said “Always look for “a kicker” in these longish turf stakes . . .”  And what happened?  “Tribhuvan” led gate to wire. 

Toss up between #4 “Ottoman Fleet” (5-2) and #8 “Up to the Mark” (8-5).  PIck ‘em?   No.  The pick is #4 “Ottoman Fleet” (5-2).  The wagers:  $2 Win #4, then $1 Pick 3:  4/8 w 7 w  3, and finally $2 Double #4 with #7.  Total = $6.  

   

Race No. 12.  Post time 7:02 P.M.    The Belmont Stakes.  A Grade I, 12 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-olds.   Purse = $1.5 M.

Last year’s winner:  “Mo Donegal” at odds of 2 1/2 to 1.  Last year’s pick:  “Rich Strike” who finished 6th. 

This is a very competitive group, with only one entrant that can be totally tossed out.  The other eight horses all have  shown something to be deserving of entering the starting gate.  Oh, you say - - #1 “Tapit Shoes” (20-1) does not deserve to be here?   Really?  His dam “Awesome Feather” is also the dam of “Cyberknife”, last year’s winner of The Haskell at Monmouth Park.  Next, the pundits will be zooming in on three entrants:  #6 “Forte”, #8 “Angel of Empire”, and #4 “National Treasure”.   Those same pundits will ignore this blogger’s pick, i.e. Gary and Mary West’s #7 “Hit Show” (10-1).  Those two a.m. timed workouts in May signal fitness.  His dam “Actress” banked $500K on the track.  What’s not to like? 

The wager:  $10 W/P/S #7, then $2 Double #7 with #3.  Total = $32.   

 

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:47 P.M.    An 8 1/2  furlong turf race restricted to NYS Breds.    Purse = $90K.

Christophe’s #3 “Clear Conscience” (5-1) is not a bad alternative in this spot.  His dam-side is decent enough and his trainer is good at placing them where they can win.  If he does win, I’m hoping this completes the Manuel Franco Double.  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #3.  Total = $4.  

Total Wagers for Saturday, June 10 = $75.

Total wagers for both Friday and Saturday = $127.

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Pimlico

Friday and Saturday, May 19-20, 2023

Weather watch: 

 Friday:  Partly sunny and in the 70s.

 Saturday:  Overcast with showers and in the 70s.    

Short Note.

This is the only post for both days.  

Friday’s Card

Race No. 12.  Post time 5:10 P.M.  The Pimlico Special.  A 9 1/2 furlong, Grade III dirt race.  Purse = $250K.

  Last year’s winner:  “First Captain” at 5-1 odds.  Last year’s pick”  “Vindictive” who finished second. 

Both #2 “Rattle N Roll” (9-5) and #5 “Law Professor” (5-2) look good on paper, but trainer Todd Pletcher’s #1 “Kuchar” (10-1) could be sitting on a race.  Those 10-1 odds are too juicy to ignore.  The wager:  $2 Win #1, then $2 double #1 with #7.  Total = $4.  

.

Race No. 13.  Post time 5:44 P.M.  The Black-Eyed Susan.  A Grade II, 9 furlong dirt race restricted to three year-old fillies.   Purse = $300K.

  Last year’s winner:  “Interstatedaydream” at 6-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Beguine” who finished second to last at 11-1 odds.  

Let’s start with Bob Baffert’s unbeaten #9 “Faiza” (7-5) who comes east in search of a field she can beat.  This may be that field, but not with my money.  Instead, this wallet will open for the Godolphin/Brad Cox entrant #7 “Comparative” (12-1) who is out of the unraced dam “Collective”.  This handicapper prefers broodmares who have raced, but when Godolphin is involved, that means little.  Godolphin owns top broodmares.  Another factor in selecting “Comparative” is her two recent a.m. timed workouts.  Both the May 6th and May 13th a.m. workouts were outstanding.  The wager:  $3 Win and  Place #7, then $3 Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Double #7 with #8 “First Mission”.  Total = $9.  

Total Wagers for Friday May 19th = $13.

 

Pimlico

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Race No. 12.  Post time 4:12 P.M.  The James Murphy.  An ungraded 8  furlong turf stake for three year-olds.   Purse= $100K.

  Last year’s winner: “Joe” at 2-1 odds.  Last year’s pick:  “Riot House” who was scratched.  

This year’s pick is #4 “Top Recruit” (15-1).   Yes, it is this horse’s first start of the year but this is not the strongest field ever assembled either. This Mike Maker trainee is out of “Oh So Bella”, who is out of a top broodmare that produced four $100K earners.  “Top Recruit” is not the worst stab of the program.    The wager:  $2 W/P #4, then $2 Double #4 with #8 “First Mission”. Total = $6.   

Race No. 13.  Post time 7:01 P.M.  The Preakness.  A 9 1/2 furlong, Grade I dirt race restricted to three year-olds.  Purse = $1.5 Million.

Last year’s winner:  “Early Voting” at 6-1.  Last year’s pick: “Epicenter”.  

Thankfully “Mage” is showing up.  He is the only horse from the Derby field to come to Baltimore.   Say “hello” to racing without Lasix.  The pick is #8 “First  Mission” (5-2) who won The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in fine form.   No wager here because I don’t trust him to run back to his Lexington form.    

Total Wagers for Saturday May 20th = $6. 

Total Wagers for both days = $19.

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Kentucky Derby 

Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Weather watch:  Chance of showers.  Not hot.     

Last year’s pick:.

 “Cyberknife”, who finished 18th.  Prior to this race, “Cyberknife” had won the Arkansas Derby in not-so-fast fashion. Last year’s Derby winner?  “Rich Strike” at 80-1.     

This year

   In prior years, this blogger would handicap all races on the card.  This year?  The bankroll will be largely devoted to the winner if the 2023 Arkansas Derby - - - #14 “Angel of Empire” (8-1) - - along with others in exacta wagers. 

  As shown in the wagering below, the likely favorite #15 “Forte” (3-1) will not appear on any ticket.  This wallet cannot support an offspring of “Violence” to run the 10 furlong distance.   His dam “Queen Caroline” was a successful miler as shown by her $400K earnings, mostly on the Maryland circuit.  In summary, if “Forte” wins, I lose.

  Trainer Todd Pletcher’s other two entrants, i.e. #5 “Tapit Trice” (5-1) and #6 “Kingsbarns” (12-1), have better breeding than “Forte”.  In the Louisiana Derby, “Kingsbarns” went to the front and never looked back.  In the Bluegrass Stakes, “Tapit Trice” stayed within range of the leader, then pounced in the late stages.  While nothing in horse racing is certain, no one would be surprised if these two run similar races today.  

  The X Factor today is the Japanese entrant #17 “Derma Sotogake” (10-1).  While he has raced eight times, his last race was in Dubai seven weeks ago.  This son of the hard-knocking “Mind Your Biscuits” could be anything.   

  Finally, the lightly-raced #8 “Mage” is out of the dam “Puca”.  She banked $300K for trainer Bill Mott.  More importantly, the sire of “Mage” is out of the sire “Good Magic”, himself a son of “Curlin’.  Even though this colt has only had three lifetime starts, he could be anything too.   

 

Race No. 12.  Post time 6:57 P.M.  The Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve.  A 10 furlong, Grade I dirt race restricted to 3 year-olds.  Purse = $3 Million.

The move by #14 “Angel of Empire” (8-1) in the Arkansas Derby is most memorable.  The knocks against this colt are his modest breeding (Classic Empire by Armony’s Angel), which was reflected in his sales-ring price ($70,000 @ Sept. ’21 Keeneland yearling sale). 

  As for breeding, on his “plus side”, his maternal grand dam “Seeinsbelievein” dropped “Conquest Big E”, a winner of $435K in 34 starts.  That broodmare is out of “Carson City”, which is a big plus to this blogger. 

  Secondly, #8 “Mage” (15-1) is just too well bred to expect a poor performance.  Yes, this entrant is very lightly raced and only has one maiden win.  The “morning line” odds  on “Mage” at 15-1 is much too low.  His post-time odds should be north of 22-1.  

  The wager will include an exacta “key”, with #14 finishing either first or second to the following:

    -   #5 “Tapit Trice” (5-1) 

• #6 “Kingsbarns” (12-1), 
• #8 “Mage” (15-1) 
• #17 “Derma Sotogake” (10-1)    

The wagers:  

$15 W/P/S #14 “Angel of Empire”

$2  W/P/S #8 “Mage”.   

$1 Exacta #14 beating either #5, #6, #8, or #17. 

 $1 Exacta:  Either #5, #6, #8, or #17 beating #14.   

Total = $59  

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                                                           Breeders’ Cup 2022

                             Keeneland

November  4 & 5

Weather Watch:  Sunny, low 70s on Friday.  Cloudy with showers after 2 P.M. on Saturday.  

Format:

This is the only post for both days.  In the event of scratches, this post will not be updated. 

Wagering focus:  Over 60% of the $321 listed wagers involve  two horses:

• “Nations Pride” in The Turf, and
• “Flightline” in The Classic.
• The other 40% can be described as “playing around the edges”.   

• - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

Friday, November 4th

Friday Keeneland Race No. 1. Post time 11:55 A.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   Purse $185K.   An 8 1/2 furlong race run under allowance conditions.

No pick. No wager.  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 2. Post time 12:30 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.  A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to maiden two-year old fillies.  Purse = $150K. 

Trainer Todd Pletcher enters #8 “Vivid Dreams” (9-2) whose maternal grand dam has dropped four $100K winners.  

The wagers:  $2 Win #8, then $2 Double 8 w 6.  Total = $4.

    

Friday Keeneland Race No. 3.   Post time 1:05 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  A 6 1/2 furlong sprint for horse that have not won two races.   Purse = $160K.

Luis rides #6 “Pro Oxidant” (8-1) for Green Lantern Stables.  Yes, his September race at Churchill was horrible, but he has trained well since.  He is not the worst stab in the world.  

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #6.  Total = $4.  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 4.  Post time 1:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.   A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to two year-olds that have not won twice.   Purse = $160K.

Ricardo’s #11 “Tres Soles” (5-1) just might get the jump on the overwhelming Baffert favorite.  The wallet hopes so.  

The wager:  $2 Double #11 with #1.  Total = $2.  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 5.  Post time 2:15 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.    The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stake.   A Grade II, 13 furlong dirt race Purse = $350K.

From the rail, #1 “Rattle N Roll” (5-2) saves ground the entire way.  The jockey won’t have to do too much either.

The wager:  $2 Double #1 with #12.  Total = $2. 

 

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Friday Keeneland Race No. 6.  Post time: 3:00 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf Sprint.  A Grade I, 5 1/2  furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million.

Last year’s winner: “Twilight Gleaming” at odds of 5-1.  This was trainer Wesley Ward’s third straight victory in this race.  This Irish-bred winner was owned by Stonestreet Stable and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.  

Last Year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Twilight Gleaming”. 

Trainer Wesley Ward goes for four in a row with #2 “Love Reigns” (4-1) and we all wish him well - - all that is except my wallet.  The pick is a filly, i.e. #12 “The Platinum Queen” (7-2) who draws the dreaded outside post position.  This filly is something special.

 

The wagers:  $3 Win and Place #12, then $2 Double #12 with #7, then $1 “all turf” Pick 3:  12 with 5 with 4, and finally $1 Pick 5:  12 w 7 w 5 w 5 w 4.  Total = $10.  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 7. Post time 3:40 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Filly.  A Grade I, 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year-old fillies.  Purse:  $2 Million.

 

Last year’s winner:  “Echo Zulu” at odds of 4-5.  She was owned by L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds, trained by Steve Asmussen, and ridden by Joel Rosario.  

Last year’s pick by this blogger:  “Echo Zulu”. 

On October 7th, Joel’s #7 “Chop Chop” (4-1) lost by a hair in the Alcibiades.  Let’s trust that Joel can turn the tables this time. 

 

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #7, then $2 “Special Double”:  #7 (Chop Chop) with #1 (Malathaat).  Total = $6.  

  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 8.  Post time: 4:20 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Fillies Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year old fillies.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Pizza Bianca”, at odds of 10-1.  She was owned by Bobby Flay, trained by Christophe Clement, and ridden by Jose Ortiz. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Hello You”  at 15-1 odds.  She finished 5th. 

Taking “a flyer” here on Shug’s #5 “Pleasant Passage” (12-1) who showed interest in her two starts, plus in her a.m. timed workouts in October.   Keeping Irad in the saddle does not hurt either.

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #5, then $1 Pick 3:  5 w 5 w 4.  Total = $5.  

  

Friday Keeneland Race No. 9.  The Juvenile.  A Grade I, 8 ½ furlong dirt race for two year olds.  Purse:  $2 Million.  Post time:  5:00 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.

Last year’s winner: “Corniche” at odds of 7-5.  He was owned by Speedway Stable, trained by Bob Baffert, and ridden by Mike Smith.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Corniche”.

First of all, congratulations to trainer Tommy Amoss for keeping jockey Edgar Morales on #9 “Curly Jack” (20-1).  All too often the connections forget the little guys who toil day after day in this business.  Next, before we anoint one of trainer Bob Baffert’s entrants as the winner, I just get the feeling that #5 “Verifying” (10-1) was not asked for his best effort on that sloppy track on October 1st.   This colt’s dam “Diva Delite” is the dam of “Midnight Bisou”, a winner of over $7 Million on the racetrack.

 The wagers:  $2 Double #5 with #4, then $2 “Special Double”:  #5 (Verifying) with #4 (Flightline).  Total = $4.  

   

Friday Keeneland Race No. 10.  Post time:  5:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Juvenile Turf.  An 8 furlong turf race for two year olds.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

 

Last year’s winner: “Modern Games”, owned by Godolphin, Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.  The winner ran for purse money only.

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Albahr” who was scratched after flipping in the starting gate.

In this 2022 edition, Appleby/Buick return with today’s probable favorite, i.e. #4 “Silver Knott” (3-1) who ran impressively at Newmarket on October 8th after disappointing at Doncaster in September.  These connections know how to win at the Breeders’ Cup.  Next, jockey Mike Smith’s #2 “Packs a Wahlop” (6-1) deserves consideration because he has continued to improve by winning two minor stakes races in California.  Next, Chad’s #8 “I’m Very Busy” (9-2) could not catch #13 “Major Dude” (10-1) in the Pilgrim.  Yes, the turf was yielding, but good horses find a way to win.  Finally, #13 “Major Dude” would have been “the pick”, but that outside post position is a major disadvantage - - - leaving #4 “Silver Knott” as the choice.

 

The “Special Double” wagers:  

$5 #4 (Silver Knott) with #7 (Nations Pride), then

$2 #2 (Packs a Wahlop) with #7 (Nations Pride).  

Total wagers = $7. 

 

Total for Friday, November 5th =  $44.

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Saturday, November 5th

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 1. Post time 10:30 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time. 

A 7 furlong dirt race restricted to maiden two-year olds.  Purse = $150K. 

Trainer Todd Pletcher decided to debut #10 “Expect More” (8-1) here, expecting a higher-than-normal purse.  He got it.  The colt’s last a.m. timed workout is encouraging.

  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #10.  Total = $4.    

  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 2. Post time 11:05 A.M.  Eastern Daylight Time.

A 6 1/2 furlong dirt sprint run under allowance conditions.  Purse = $195K. 

Former claimer #4 “Silk Trade” (10-1) offers good value in a race with many open questions.

  The wager:  $2 Win and Place #4.   Total = $4.  

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Saturday Keeneland Race No. 3.   Post time: 11:50 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Sprint.  A Grade 1, seven furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse: $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Ce Ce”, at odds of 6-1, owned by Bo Hirsch, trained by Michael McCarthy, and ridden by Victor Espinosa.   

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Gamine” who finished a distant 3rd at odds of 2-5. 

In this 2022 edition, there will be many fans of #13 “Echo Zulu” (6-1), and who can blame them?  Those fans will then look at the rest of the field and notice Chad Brown’s #8 “Goodnight Olive” (3-1) and say “Oh No!  I’ve seen this movie before!”.  That’s right.  Chad has brought this filly along slowly through her conditions, and all of those pre-August races included medication on race day.   Then, in her only graded stakes race - - - the storied Grade I Ballerina at Saratoga - - Chad ran her without Lasix and she won  impressively.  So while we keep this in mind and congratulate the connections of “Goodnight Olive”, we also turn the page to find today’s winner.   The pick was going to be  “Kimari”  who has been training here at Keeneland for seven weeks.  However, her connections opted to face the boys later in the card. Rats!  I was sure she would perform well here.  

The pick is trainer Bill Mott’s #5 “Frank’s Rockette” (6-1), a daughter of “Into Mischief” and out of an “Indian Charlie” broodmare.   The trainer decided to keep her home and train her up to this race - - - something this blogger thinks of highly.  

The wagers:  $2 Win and Place #5, then $2 Double #5 with #6, then $1 Pick 3:  5 w 6 w 6/7.  Total = $8.  

  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 4.  Post time:  12:29 P.M.   Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf Sprint.  A Grade 1, 5 1/2  furlong  turf race.  Purse:  $1 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Golden Pal”, a 3 year-old colt at odds of 5 to 2.  He was no longer owned by Ranlo Investments.  This year he was owned by Magnier, Tabor, and Smith, etc., still trained by Wesley Ward, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.  

 Last year’s distance was 5 furlongs. 

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “A Case of You” who finished 5th at 8-1.

 On August 19th, #6 “Highfield Princess” (7-2) beat “The Platinum Queen” at York by over two lengths while toting 138 pounds.   Today she carries 123 pounds.  Yes, she has to get the jump on #8 “Golden Pal” (2-1) but she is certainly capable.

  The wager:  $3 Win and Place #6, then $2 Double #6 with #6, and finally a $1 Pick 3:  6 w 6 w 3/5.  Total = $10.  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 5.   Post time:  1:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Dirt Mile.  A Grade 1,  8 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $1 Million.

 

Last year’s winner: “Life is Good”, owned by China Horse Club and WinStar Farm,  trained by Todd Pletcher, and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.   as the 4-5 favorite. He won by 5 lengths but was nearly a full second slower than the 30 year old track record for this distance.     

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Silver State” at 3-1 odds. 

Trainer Bob Baffert’s #6 “Laurel River” (9-2) seems to be improving late in the year.  It should be a real good race between him and #7 “Cody’s Wish” (5-2).  This wallet will side with the son of “Into Mischief” in this puzzler. 

The wager:  $2 Double #6 with #3, then $1 Pick 3:  6/7 w 3 w 5.  Total = $4.  

   

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 6.  Post time:  1:50 P.M.  Eastern Daylight Time. The Filly and Mare Turf.  A Grade 1, 9 1/2 furlong grass race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

Last year’s winner: “Loves Only You” at 11 furlongs.  She was owned by DMM Dream Club, trained by Yoshito Yahagi, and ridden by Yuga Kawada.  She won at odds 4-1.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Love” who finished 2 lengths behind the winner at odds of 3-1. 

The MOTO pick is #3 “Nashwa” (5-2) - - hands down.  She has two Group 1 wins this year and was competitive in her last start on soft turf.  This is her race to lose.  Next, and not without a chance, is Chad’s #9 “Rougir” (12-1).  Her win in the E.P. Taylor just 4 weeks ago was impressive.  The mystery filly is #5 “Tuesday” (8-1) who, while racing well on soft turf, just might thrive on a harder surface.  (Note:  the early weather forecast calls for a 40% chance of showers after 2 P.M.)

 

The wagers:  $5 Win and Place #3, then $2 Double #3 with #5, then $1 Exacta Box 3/5, then $1 Pick 3:  3/5 w 5 w 4, and finally $1 Pick 6:  3 w 5 w 4 w 1/7 w 7 w 4.  Total = $18.     

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 7.  Post time: 2:30 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Sprint.  A Grade 1, 6 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $2 Million.

   

Last year’s winner: “Aloha West”, owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners., trained by Wayne Catalano, ridden by Jose Ortiz, at odds of 11-1.

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Special Reserve” who finished 4th at odds of 10-1. 

Let’s start with “the elephant in the room”, i.e. #9 “Jackie’s Warrior” (4-5) who was extremely disappointing in The Forego on Travers Day at Saratoga.  It was ugly - - - so ugly to force a “toss” in this race.  Next, trainer Wesley Ward’s #2 “Kimari” (4-1) will be on a ticket.  Her September 25th race was better than what is showing on paper.  Next, trainer Bill Mott’s #6 “Elite Power” (6-1) has won four in a row, all by open lengths, making him a definite contender.  Finally, the pick is last year’s winner #5 “Aloha West” (12-1) who has been ripping down the barn since arriving at Keeneland. 

The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 2/5, then $2 Double #5 with #4, then $1 Pick 3:  5 w 4 w 1/7, then $0.50 Pick 5:  5 w 4 w 1/7 w 7 w 4.  Total = $7.  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 8.  Post time:  3:10 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Mile.  A Grade 1, 8 furlong turf race.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

 

Last year’s winner:  “Space Blues”, a 5 year-old Irish bred.  He won as the 2-1 favorite.    He was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.    

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Space Blues”.

When comparing Lanfranco Dettori’s #13 “Kinross” (9-2) to the rest of this field, the first concern was that this will be his fourth race since September 11th, and the fifth since  August 20th.  That is a heavy work load.  The next concern is that his has never won at Deauville.  The third concern?  Outside post.  And finally, the fourth concern - - - he is not really a sprinter, nor is he a miler.  With so many concerns, he had to be tossed.  Next, the Charles Appleby/William Buick combo for #4 “Modern Games” (7-2) is noted.  In July he finished second to (arguably) Europe’s best - - “Baaeed” - - whose season ended earlier than planned.  Finally, #9 “Malavath” (15-1) is a rather speedy three year-old filly with some upside.  She finished second at DelMar last November as a two year-old.  She will be on  tickets.

   

The wagers:  $1 Exacta Box 4/9, then $2 Double 4 w 1, then $1 Double 4/9 w 1, then $1 Pick 3: 4/9 w 1/7 w 7, and finally $0.50 Pick 4:  4/9 w 1/7 w 7 w 4.  Total = $12.  

 

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 9.   Post time: 3:55 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Distaff.  A Grade 1, 9 furlong dirt race for fillies and mares.  Purse:  $2 Million. 

 

Last year’s winner: “Marche Lorraine” at odds of 50-1.   She is owned by U Carrot Farm,   trained by Yashito Yahagi, and ridden by Olsin Murphy.  

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Letruska”, the 9-5 favorite who “folded” and finished 32 lengths behind the winner. 

This should be one helluva good race.  First, Chad’s #7 “Search Results” (9-2) just keeps getting better and better.  She could surprise.  The pick is Johnny V’s #1 “Malathaat” (3-1) who just looks like she is sitting on a big one.  Sure, Todd’s other entrant #6 “Nest” (9-5) has been extremely competitive all year and she will be formidable.  I’m just leaning to a 1-7-6 finish.

 The wagers:  $2 Double #1 with #7, then $2 Pick 3:  1/7 w 7 w 4, and finally $1 Pick 4:  1/7 w 7 w 4 w 5.  Total = $8.  

  

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 10.  Post time: 4:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Turf.  A 12 furlong grass race.  Purse:  $4 Million. 

 

Last year’s winner: “Yibir”, a 3 year-old gelding, set a new track record at odds of 8-1. He was owned by Godolphin, trained by Charles Appleby, and ridden by William Buick.     

Last year’s Pick by this blogger:  “Domestic Spending” who was scratched. 

This appears to be another year when the Euros did not send their best.  However, Godolphin did send #7 “Nations Pride”, a 3 year-old who has raced three times in the U.S.  In his first U.S. race, he started from post position number 10 and finished second.  This race was restricted to three year-olds, as was his second race which he won.  Then he won a second U.S. race by six lengths.   He will be formidable, and those 3-1 morning line odds would be generous.  Oh, and by the way, his trainer is Charles Appleby and his jockey is William Buick.   As ol’ Yogi would say, “It’s deja vu all over again.” 

 

The wagers:  $100 Place #7, then $100 Double #7 with #4.  Total = $200.  

     

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 11.  Post time 5:40 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time. The Classic.  A 10 furlong dirt race.  Purse:  $6 Million.

Last year’s winner:  “Knicks Go”, trained by Brad Cox.  He won at 3-1 odds.  He was owned by Korea Racing Authority and ridden by Joel Rosario.    

Last year’s pick by this blogger:  “Knicks Go”.

There is no way on this earth that I am wagering against #4 “Flightline” (3-5).   In addition, since the exacta could be completed by just about any of the others, I’ll skip that too. 

The wager:  $2 Double #4 with #5.  Total = $2.  

 

Saturday Keeneland Race No. 12. Post time 6:20 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time.  The Fall Harvest Stakes.  An ungraded 8 furlong turf race restricted to fillies and mares.  Purse = $350K.

 

Even though she has not run in many months, jockey Flavien Prat opted for #5 “Shantisara” (6-5) over Chad’s other entrant, i.e. #7 “Technical Analysis” (3-1).   Next, trainer Al Stall’s #4 “Dalika” (7-2) has had a wonderful career and we wish her well as she heads to the breeding shed.  No wager here.  

Total for Saturday, November 5th = $277.  

Total Wagers for two days = $321. 

Bankroll from 2021 Breeders’ Cup:

Wagered $205, Collected $328.20, Refunds = $18 (6 for 20).